RADIO
Welcome to Week 18, RotoBallers! I can't believe the regular season is coming to a close. Fortunately for us, we actually have a Week 18 Sunday Night Football game worth watching, as the Chargers (9-7) head to Vegas to take on the Raiders (9-7) to potentially decide the seventh seed in the AFC. We've been pretty successful so far with these showdown slates and hopefully, that trend continues tonight with Sunday Night Football. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Sunday Night Football showdown slate on January 9th. These lineups can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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DFS Captain/MVP Plays
Justin Herbert ($17,100 DK, $17,500 FD)
Key Stats
- 2021 Stats: 4,631 passing yards, 35 touchdowns, 14 interceptions.
- Offensive Pass DVOA: 37.6% (third), per Football Outsiders.
- Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: 13.9% (25th), per Football Outsiders.
This is undoubtedly the biggest game of Justin Herbert's career. Herbert has been among the most consistent quarterbacks this season from a fantasy production standpoint. He now gets a strong matchup with the Raiders who he threw for 222 yards and three touchdowns against back in Week 4. I fully expect Brandon Staley and the Chargers to go all out tonight and take this one on the back of their second-year stud under center.
Josh Jacobs ($11,700 DK, $12,000 FD)
Key Stats
- 2021 Stats: 191 attempts, 740 rushing yards, eight rushing touchdowns, 62 targets, 52 receptions, 336 receiving yards.
- 2021 Data: 60.06% attempt rate, 60.78% red-zone attempt rate, 63.64% attempt rate within the five-yard line, 12.6% target rate, 8.62% red-zone target rate.
- Offensive Rush DVOA: -14.4% (25th), per Football Outsiders.
- Opposing Defense Rush DVOA: 2.5% (32nd).
Jacobs does come into this game with a questionable designation, and he was limited in practice late in the week. I have a hard time seeing him sitting this one out with a playoff spot on the line, though. The matchup here for Jacobs is fantastic and he rushed for 40 yards on 13 carries along with catching all five of his targets for 17 yards back in Week 4. Jacobs has really turned it since then, though, and the Raiders should try to use him to control the pace of the game and keep the ball away from Herbert, Ekeler, and co.
Other Captains/MVPs: Austin Ekeler, Hunter Renfrow, Keenan Allen
DFS Flex Plays
Derek Carr ($10,000 DK, $13,500 FD)
Key Stats
- 2021 Stats: 4,618 passing yards, 21 touchdowns, 14 interceptions.
- Offensive Pass DVOA: 14.7% (17th), per Football Outsiders.
- Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: 9.9% (23rd), per Football Outsiders.
While I mentioned with Josh Jacobs that the Raiders should attempt to keep the ball away from the Chargers, sometimes things happen and it's equally as possible that Vegas gets dragged into a shootout. If that's the case, the Raiders will need Carr to step up, and while the QB has been nothing more than mediocre over the last month from a fantasy perspective, he's shown that he's capable of putting up a solid outing when needed. I certainly prefer this play on FanDuel just due to the relative pricing difference, but if you want to project a full shootout, he's not the worst play on DraftKings either.
Austin Ekeler ($11,600 DK, $15,000 FD)
Key Stats
- 2021 Stats: 190 attempts, 847 rushing yards, 18 rushing touchdowns, 82 targets, 65 receptions, seven receiving touchdowns.
- 2021 Data: 49.87% attempt rate, 47.31% red-zone attempt rate, 52.17% attempt rate within the five-yard line, 14.64% target rate, 16.67% red-zone target rate, one end zone target.
- Offensive Rush DVOA: -4.5% (14th), per Football Outsiders.
- Opposing Defense Rush DVOA: -12.9% (ninth), per Football Outsiders.
Despite his seemingly ridiculous price, I had to mention Ekeler here. I knew he was having a fantastic year, but I didn't realize that he's scored 25 (!!!) touchdowns on the season. He's been playing at such an incredible level that you can almost reasonably expect a 20+ fantasy performance from him on both sites. He logged 145 all-purpose yards and two touchdowns on just 18 touches against the Raiders in Week 4, and I'm expecting a similar output tonight. What's great about Ekeler on these slates is that he's so effective in the passing game, making a Herbert/Ekeler stack potentially optimal.
Other Flex Options: Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Darren Waller (if playing)
DFS Value Plays
Jared Cook ($5,600 DK, $8,500 FD)
Key Stats
- 2021 Stats: 76 targets, 44 receptions, 484 receiving yards, four touchdowns.
- 2021 Data: 13.48% target rate, 14.29% red-zone target rate, nine end zone targets.
- Individual Matchup (vs Krys Barnes): 14% target rate per route covered, 86% catch rate, 0.27 fantasy points allowed per route covered.
I mentioned a few weeks back when the Chargers were on primetime that while the production hasn't been there to be a more expensive option, the volume and upside certainly are. There are only three tight ends with more end zone targets than Cook this season (Hunter Henry, Mark Andrews, and Dawson Knox, respectively). Cook had his best week of the season against the Raiders in Week 4, grabbing six of seven targets for 70 yards and a touchdown. I don't anticipate him repeating that performance, but he certainly has the upside to put together a 3-45-1 line.
Daniel Carlson ($3,400 DK, $9,000 FD)
Key Stats
- 2021 Stats: 38 field goals attempted, 35 field goals made, 28/31 PAT.
I actually really like both kickers in this matchup, as both offenses are rather consolidated, and if you want to pay up for the big boys, you'll need some really good value somewhere. Neither kicker had their best day in Week 4, but both of them are capable of having big nights as they are reliable and I do expect points in this one. I lean towards Carlson despite my typical approach of favoring the kicker on the team I believe will score more, as Carlson is cheaper, more accurate, and can hit from a deeper range. Nonetheless, kickers are optimal, and I'll have a ton of shares of both tonight.
Other Value Plays: Zay Jones, DeSean Jackson, Foster Moreau (if Waller OUT)
Enjoy your Sunday night and good luck everyone!
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