RADIO
Happy Sunday and welcome to Week 5 RotoBallers! We've been pretty successful so far, and hopefully, that trend continues through this afternoon and tonight with SNF. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Sunday Night Football slate on October 10. These lineups can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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DFS Captain/MVP Plays
Josh Allen ($18,600 DK, $16,500 FD)
While he's had a slow start to the year, I'm not surprised that Allen is priced higher than Mahomes in this matchup. Allen has the much softer matchup, with KC coming into this one with a 10.1% DVOA against the pass. Allen isn't putting up the flashy MVP-like numbers he did early on last year, but he's still been solid with 1,055 passing yards, nine touchdowns, and two interceptions through four weeks. He's also only rushed for 129 yards and a touchdown as well, but I expect the ball to be in hands throughout most of the game due to it likely being a shootout.
Patrick Mahomes ($18,000 DK, $17,000 FD)
It would be downright disrespectful to not consider Mahomes at the captain spot with a game script that likely leads to a lot of points, regardless of matchup. The Bills' defense has been elite, with a -19.2% DVOA against the pass this season. Mahomes is arguably the best quarterback in the league right now, though, making him essentially matchup-proof. I think the Bills are able to score at will against this Kansas City defense, so Mahomes should eclipse 35 pass attempts fairly easily. With 1,218 passing yards, 14 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions, Mahomes can do special things when he lets loose, and I think he does so tonight.
Stefon Diggs ($13,200 DK, $12,500 FD)
Since both quarterbacks are (rightfully) expensive and both teams are likely going to be moving the ball heavily through the air, I like Diggs as a safe, cheaper option at the captain spot. Diggs has had a relatively slow start to the season, with 26 catches for 305 yards and a score in the first four games. He's seen 42 targets, though, and has eclipsed ten targets in three of the first four games. He gets a very solid matchup against KC who comes in with a 25.8% DVOA against '#1 WRs', so I'll have quite a bit of him tonight in the captain spot.
Other Captains/MVPs: Tyreek Hill, Dawson Knox (GPP ONLY)
DFS Flex Plays
Emmanuel Sanders ($7,000 DK, $9,000 FD)
Lining up on the other side of Diggs tonight will be Emmanuel Sanders, who's had an extremely good season so far, catching 16 of 26 targets for 268 yards and two touchdowns. He draws a great matchup against KC as well, who comes into this one with a 17.9% DVOA against '#2 WRs". I think all passing options in the Bills' offense deserve ownership tonight, and I'll certainly be spreading them out, linking two Bills pass-catchers in each of my Josh Allen CPT lineups.
Tyreek Hill ($10,400 DK, $13,500 FD)
Hill has been the most productive of all the KC pass-catchers so far this year, logging 30 receptions on 38 targets for 453 yards and four touchdowns through the first four games. He's eclipsed 40 (!!!!) DK points in two of the four games to start the season. He draws a tough matchup against the Bills and Tre White, who come in with a -33.9% DVOA against '#1 WRs', but with the targets and potential upside, you have to love Tyreek Hill tonight.
Other Flex Options: Travis Kelce, Dawson Knox, Zack Moss
DFS Value Plays
Cole Beasley ($5,800 DK, $10,000 FD)
As I mentioned when talking about Diggs and Sanders, I like all of Buffalo's pass-catchers tonight. This includes Cole Beasley, who has the worst matchup of the night, as the Chiefs have been solid against 'Other WRs' with a -30.1% DVOA. However, I think the Chiefs will do a lot to stop an Allen-Diggs onslaught, which results in Beasley getting a handful of targets and moving the sticks throughout the game. He has 25 receptions on 32 targets for 210 yards but hasn't found the end zone yet this season. Neither of these teams has super cheap guys that we can depend on to hit value, so we have to take it where we can get it.
Devin Singletary ($5,200 DK, $9,500 FD)
Speaking of finding value where we can get it, I LOVE Devin Singletary as a value option on this slate. While Zack Moss has found the end zone four times this season, Singletary still comes in with more snaps (57.48%) and attempts (53.85%). He's had at least 10 in each week so far and now gets a fantastic matchup against KC, who comes in with a DVOA of 37.8% against the run. Not only that, but KC really struggles against RBs in the passing game, with a DVOA of 41.2%. Singletary leads Moss in targets 11-6, and should see a few targets tonight. While I will be playing both, I'll have more Singletary especially because he's $1,400 cheaper on DK. I will also restrict my lineups from having both Moss and Singletary in them.
Other Value Plays: Mecole Hardman, Harrison Butker
Happy football season, everyone!
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