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John's top NFL DFS lineup picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, and Sunday Night Football -Browns vs Ravens showdown slate. His Week 12 SNF daily fantasy football advice.
Welcome to Week 12, RotoBallers! We've been pretty successful so far with these showdown slates and hopefully, that trend continues tonight with Sunday Night Football. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Sunday Night Football showdown slate on November 28th. These lineups can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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DFS Captain/MVP Plays
Lamar Jackson ($18,600 DK, $17,500 FD)
Key Stats
- 2021 Stats: 2,447 passing yards, 14 touchdowns, eight interceptions, 106 rushes, 639 rushing yards, two rushing touchdowns.
- Offensive Pass DVOA: 14.3% (17th), per Football Outsiders.
- Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: 16.1% (24th), per Football Outsiders.
It's a huge divisional matchup tonight, and who better to captain than Lamar Jackson? Lamar has owned the Browns in his career, and tonight should be no different. He's expensive, but he's a must-play in optimal lineups on FanDuel. You can diversify on DraftKings, but Lamar will be my highest-owned captain/MVP on both sites as he has the highest floor and ceiling on the slate.
Kareem Hunt ($10,500 DK, $11,000 FD)
Key Stats
- 2021 Stats: 69 carries, 361 rushing yards, five rushing touchdowns, 24 targets, 20 catches, 161 receiving yards, five receiving touchdowns.
- 2021 Data: 48.29% snap rate, 35.75% attempt rate, 31.91% red-zone attempt rate, 36.36% attempt rate within the 5yd line, 14.29% target rate, 18.75% red zone target rate, one end zone target.
- Offense Rush DVOA: 10.6% (1st), per Football Outsiders
- Opposing Defense Rush DVOA: -15.5% (6th), per Football Outsiders.
- Opposing DVOA vs RB (Receiving): 52.7% (32nd), per Football Outsiders.
Kareem Hunt is expected to play tonight after missing five games with a calf strain. It'll be interesting to see what kind of work he gets, but I'll be willing to captain him due to the fantastic matchup. With Odell Beckham Jr. out of Cleveland, Hunt should be expected to see more targets in the passing game, a matchup he should be able to take advantage of against the worst team at defending receiving running backs. I'll have a fair share of Hunt across all of my lineups tonight on both sites.
Other Captains/MVPs: Nick Chubb, Mark Andrews
DFS Flex Plays
Baker Mayfield ($9,800 DK, $14,000 FD)
Key Stats
- 2021 Stats: 2,166 passing yards, 10 touchdowns, six interceptions.
- Offensive Pass DVOA: 13.3% (18th), per Football Outsiders.
- Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: 17.8% (27th), per Football Outsiders.
This is primarily a FanDuel play, where dual-QB is more of an optimal strategy. Baker typically struggles against the Ravens, but the Browns will need him tonight in a massive game that should set the tone for the division race moving forward. I don't particularly like going dual-QB on DraftKings, but I will have some lineups with both Mayfield and Jackson in them.
Mark Andrews ($9,400 DK, $12,000 FD)
Key Stats
- 2021 Stats: 79 targets, 56 receptions, 696 receiving yards, four touchdowns.
- 2021 Data: 72.64% snap rate, 22.9% target rate, 27.78% red-zone target rate, eight end zone targets.
- Opposing DVOA vs TE: 3.6% (18th)
- Individual Matchup (vs. Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah): 14% target rate per route covered, 72% catch rate, 0.21 fantasy points per route covered.
I love the optics on Mark Andrews as I'm writing this, but he could be upgraded to a must-play if Marquise Brown ends up sitting tonight. Andrews has played extremely well against the Browns for his career, catching five touchdowns in six games. He's a solid option on both sites, he isn't too expensive, and he has an extremely high upside and could be worth captain consideration on both sites.
Other Flex Options: Jarvis Landry, Devonta Freeman
DFS Value Plays
Rashod Bateman ($6,400 DK, $8,500 FD)
Key Stats
- 2021 Stats: 34 targets, 21 receptions, 270 receiving yards.
- 2021 Data: 64.21% snap rate, 18.28% target rate, 14.29% red-zone target rate, one endzone target.
- Opposing DVOA vs WR2: 8.3% (21st), per Football Outsiders.
- Individual Matchup (vs. Denzel Ward): 12% target rate per route covered, 61% catch rate, 0.16 fantasy points per route covered.
This is another one we want to keep an eye on if Marquise Brown sits. The matchup will be touch as Bateman should line up against Denzel Ward for a lot of this game, but if the Ravens are going to throw the ball and Hollywood sits, it'll be up to Andrews, Bateman, and Watkins to get the job done. Bateman has looked really good since making his season debut in Week 6, and I look for him to have a good game tonight in his first heated divisional matchup.
Justin Tucker ($4,000 DK, $8,000 FD)
Key Stats
- 2021 Stats: 22 field goals attempted, 20 field goals made, 21/21 PAT.
Last week in this article I mentioned how tight ends have taken over showdown games, and then followed up on Thursday mentioning how kickers have been taking over showdown games. I'm going back to the kicker well here, and who is better than Justin Tucker? In 18 career games against the Browns, Tucker has knocked down 30 of 36 field goals and 44 of 45 extra points. He's a solid value option on both sites, and with recent trends of showdown slates, I'll likely have Tucker in at least 30% of my lineups.
Other Value Plays: Latavius Murray, Austin Hooper
Overall Slate Note
This should be a fun SNF matchup if these teams follow their recent history of games. I would spread out ownership across both offenses, and the only real restriction I would consider making is not playing both Chubb and Hunt in the same lineup. They're both viable options individually, but I can't see them both getting enough work to end up in the winning lineup. I'd suggest monitoring the Brown situation, but regardless, I would only play two Baltimore pass-catchers with Lamar in the captain spot.
Enjoy your Sunday night, and good luck, everyone!
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