2023 Fantasy Baseball Breakout Pitcher: Dane Dunning, Texas Rangers

After a mediocre few seasons including some time spent in bullpen roles, Dane Dunning has made his case as a strong option at the back of the Texas Rangers rotation. Even with the addition of Max Scherzer at the trade deadline, it was Martin Perez, not Dunning, who was sent to the bullpen for a long relief role down the stretch of the 2023 season.

Dunning has risen to the occasion, posting 29 strikeouts over his last three starts with an eye-popping 2.32 FIP over the same period. With Nathan Eovaldi slowly working through a forearm injury, Dunning has a path to remain in the rotation and contribute down the stretch of the fantasy baseball season.

Ben Ueberroth (@UeberMD) takes a deeper dive into the mechanics and statistics underlying Dunning's recent success to gauge his outlook for the rest of the year.

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Dunning's Pitch Mix

When evaluating Dunning's recent starts for trends, one of the things that jumped out was the variety of pitches with which he has been having success. Dunning has maintained a sub-3.00 FIP across his last three starts, each with a different pitch mix. Against the White Sox on August 2nd, Dunning struck out his then season-high 11 batters with a near-even mix of tailing fastballs (38.2 FB%) and sliders (33.3 SL%) but very few changeups (9.8 CH%).

In his next start on August 7 against the Oakland Athletics, Dunning took a different approach, throwing predominantly fastballs at a clip of 46.8%. His slider took much more of a back seat (19.1%), while his changeup frequency came up to 18.1%. The movement on Dunning's pitches is impressive. His primary fastball tails inwards toward right-handed hitters while his slider cuts away from righties. He then can move vertically with his changeup, which is a classic change that starts out looking like his fastball, only for the bottom to fall out of it.

Earlier this week, Dunning put forth his most impressive effort yet, a start against the San Francisco Giants in which he outdid himself with 12 strikeouts, zero walks, and one earned run. Perhaps the most exciting part of this start was how Dunning achieved greatness with three pitches simultaneously, showing a near-even split of fastballs (33.0 FB%), sliders (30.2 SL%), and changeups (24.5 CH%).

Dunning's diverse pitch mix is exciting and underscores his recent success. Having three reliable pitches is key to the success of a pitcher who cannot rely solely on a dominant, high-velocity fastball, and Dunning seems to be coming into his own in this regard. The increased confidence is likely a manifestation of an increase in the quality of these pitches, highlighted by some significant velocity gains Dunning has made. Between this season and last, Dunning has added an average of 0.5 MPH to his slider and 1.5 MPH to his sinking fastball.

Since the start of July, Dunning has been averaging 91.4 MPH on his fastball, compared to 90.5 MPH in his starts in the first half of the season. Increased velocity leads to increased confidence which, in turn, has led to better overall performance. If Dunning can continue to rely on his fastball, slider, and change in different scenarios, he will be able to keep hitters guessing.

Batted Ball Results & Plate Discipline

A diverse and improved pitch mix is important, but how has it translated to fooling hitters? The most impressive evidence to show the dichotomy between the "old" and "new" Dane Dunning is his ability to induce whiffs. In his last three starts, Dunning has maintained a 15.4% SwStr%, compared to a 7.5% rate in his 2023 starts leading up to August.

The change in pitch mix and increased velocity seem like low-hanging fruit to explain the increased whiffs, but another stat tells a slightly different story. For many pitchers, an increase in strikeouts is accompanied by an increase in painting the strike zone. Dunning has gone the opposite way, having a 39.4 Zone% over his last three stellar outings, compared to 42.5 Zone% in his starts before August. Watching the gifs above, it is not hard to put these factors together. When Dunning uses his sweeping movement and plummeting changeup, hitters are tempted to chase out of the zone. His K% heat map highlights this story, showing his excellence when cutting away from righties, especially cutting out of the strike zone.

The improvements in location - namely low and/or away - have directly translated into increased strikeouts and less chance for damage. In regards to the latter, one of Dunning's most impressive stats recently has been his limitation of solid contact. Over his last three starts, Dunning has compiled a microscopic 6.4 Barrel%. That number would put him in the top 10 rankings for Barrel% across the year. Caution is necessary with such a small sample size, but so far in August, hitters have been struggling to get bat on the ball with Dunning's recent location and movement.

If that is not enough to show how Dunning's low-in-the-zone, movement-forward style has translated to success, his recent contact profile exemplifies this even more. Comparing his three starts this month to his 2023 campaign before August, Dunning's ground ball rate is up 14.0%, his line drive rate is down 4.9%, and his fly ball rate is down 9.1%. Hitters are pulling the ball more in these recent outings, showing a 10.5% increase in Pull%. The increased Pull%, decreased Barrel%, and a significant increase in GB% show a pitcher who is forcing hitters to chase his cutting, tailing, and dropping pitches, leading to soft contact and low-risk ground balls.

The Backdrop

In considering various league formats, wins can be an elusive number to tally for managers in category-based leagues. As Dunning continues to build his confidence and carve out a long-term role in the Rangers rotation, he is backed by a strong lineup that is playing to win. Texas ranks second in wOBA on the 2023 season, and even with the loss of Josh Jung to a thumb injury, they trot out a strong lineup from top to bottom. The Rangers expect to win on a nightly basis given their top-notch rotation, bolstered by the Scherzer acquisition. They will have to fight for the remainder of the season to keep the Astros at bay and secure an AL West title. Dunning will have the run support to tally wins through the end of the fantasy season.

The Rangers also rank third in overall defensive rating across the MLB in 2023. For Dunning, a strong fielding lineup behind him is key to capitalizing on his increased GB% and weak contact. With Marcus Semien providing veteran stability in the middle infield, the Rangers will continue to provide more than adequate fielding support to maximize Dunning's win prospects.

The Final Verdict

Dane Dunning has turned a corner in his last few starts as the fifth starter for the Texas Rangers. Increased fastball and slider velocity, a more diverse pitch repertoire, and soft contact that stays on the ground have coalesced into a pitcher seeing the greatest success of his career. With a strong team backing him and competing for a pennant, Dunning has shown some changes under the hood that portend continued success.

Managers in 10-team and larger leagues are unlikely to find greater success on the waiver wire and should roster Dunning in hopes of these changes sustaining his success for the rest of the 2023 season.

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