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Steven Kwan is off to a hot start, but is he a fantasy baseball breakout? Pierre Camus analyzes Kwan as a strong OF waiver wire pickup and projects his value.
You could call it a Kwanversation. Sorry, but Dad Jokes have been part of my life for 17 years now and they're not going away.
The fantasy baseball world has been buzzing about Steven Kwan for a little while. It started in the preseason when he was a trendy sleeper in some circles. It grew louder as he made the final roster and was in the lineup for Opening Day. It is turning into a deafening roar after his five-hit game against the Royals. Just go to BaseballSavant or Fangraphs, click the Search box and you'll see his name pop up at the top as the most-searched player.
Before we go any further into the season, it's time we figured out who Kwan is, what to realistically expect from him in fantasy baseball, and how we need to approach hyped-up players in general during the first week of the MLB season when searching the waiver wire for our next potential league winner.
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Who is Steven Kwan?
The 24-year-old rookie outfielder is an Oregon State alum and fifth-round pick of the Cleveland franchise. He represents the first "homegrown" OF prospect that might actually pan out for the Guardians in a long time. His early success also comes on the heels of a trade that sent Bradley Zimmer to Toronto, which serves as another reminder of this fact.
Looking at his college and minor-league numbers, there is one thing we can easily ascertain - Kwan can hit.
Over his college career, Kwan batted .329 over 597 plate appearances. Across all minor-league stops between 2018-2021, he hit .301, including .311 at Triple-A late last year and a .337 mark for the Double-A Akron Rubberducks (which remains the best team name in minor-league baseball until it changes this May).
It's fair to say that 14 PA over three games is a tiny sample but as a Major Leaguer so far, Kwan has eight hits in 10 official at-bats. That makes for an .800 AVG which means he's on pace to shatter baseball records.
In ~3 games, Steven Kwan is 7-9 with 3 walks and an OBP of .833.
Is it too early to ask if he's the greatest baseball player of all-time?#ForTheLand pic.twitter.com/L1EHuZXjV5
— Cleveland Guardians (@CleGuardians) April 10, 2022
It's never too early to overreact because that's what sports fans and fantasy players do. But let's dig a little further first before taking victory laps.
Batted-Ball Data
We've already established that Kwan can hit and his early-season on-base streak is no fluke, even if regression is 99.99% certain to hit soon. If we take the totality of his collegiate and pro career, we can safely say that he has a good chance to exceed his Steamer projection of .287 for batting average. But fantasy baseball isn't a one-category competition. In traditional roto leagues, we also need HR, RBI, R, and SB production and that's where we have to settle down when it comes to Kwan.
In his first full minor-league season back in 2019, Kwan hit three homers across 542 plate appearances. After missing the 2020 MiLB season like most other prospects who weren't ready to be on the taxi squad, Kwan upped his power to 12 HR in 341 PA with a .527 slugging percentage last year. That's not quite Pete Alonso territory but it's a sign that he can go yard when quality contact is made.
Kwan likely won't be a power hitter as a pro but he also isn't the next coming of Raimel Tapia or Jarred Dyson. Kwan's scouting report gives him 35-grade game power and he's projected for double-digit homers by most systems, with Steamer having him up to 16 HR this season. We'll see what the Statcast data bears out over time but for now, he's at least shown a league-average 88 MPH exit velocity so far.
I thought Steven Kwan vs. Nick Madrigal was a good comparison before the season, but I think I was wrong
Madrigal has 2 career barrels in 337 PA.
Steven Kwan already has one in 14 PA.Clearly, he swings the bat much harder than Madrigal. I don't see a reason he can't go 15+ HR
— Jon Anderson (@JonPgh) April 11, 2022
It's fair to expect something in the 15-20 HR range but not much more. That'll play given his huge boost in the average department.
Fantasy managers might be slightly disappointing in his stolen base output considering he has plus speed and reaches base so frequently. Kwan swiped a grand total of 20 bases throughout the minors where those figures tend to be more inflated.
There is some hope seeing as how Cleveland finished third in team steals last year while rankings sixth in SB attempts per game. This Guardians offense is going to have to manufacture runs, no doubt. With sluggers Jose Ramirez and Franmil Reyes hitting behind Kwan, it remains to be seen how often he'll get the green light. As of now, 15 steals seems like his ceiling but I'd expect closer to 10.
Fantasy Outlook
If the power is adequate enough as we might reasonably expect, then Kwan should be added in most 12+ team leagues because of his batting average alone. Homers are easier to come by than average these days because it takes a good, long while to catch up in the AVG category while a hot week from a stud or streamer can produce several homers.
In 2021, there were 25 batters with at least 100 PA who hit .300 or better. Up the threshold to players with enough PA to qualify for a batting title and you get 14 batters to reach the .300 mark. Kwan can be a major factor in helping roto league managers for that reason alone.
If he remains in the two-hole above J-Ram, he should be a solid source of runs as well. Where he'll lack is runs batted in and steals, so keep in the mind the trade-off you must compensate for when keeping him in the lineup.
Waivers have run in most leagues by now and his 5-for-5 performance has thrust him into the spotlight but he's still only 26% rostered in Yahoo leagues. It's worth making a claim for him but don't go crazy and spend upwards of 10% or more of your FAB on a player who isn't going to be a five-cat stud. I'd argue that Heliot Ramos has more upside and deserves a stronger bid/claim but Kwan has the higher floor and is a safer bet, especially in points leagues.
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