Steelers vs. Browns TNF Start 'Em, Sit 'Em: Jameis Winston, Nick Chubb, David Njoku, Jerry Jeudy, Russell Wilson, Najee Harris, George Pickens

The Week 12 TNF game between two bitter AFC North rivals (Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers) is not likely to end up like the Thursday night game from two weeks ago when two different AFC North teams (Bengals and Ravens) battled to a 35-34 shootout. Somewhere deep in the charter of the Pittsburgh Steelers, I am convinced it is a requirement that every one of their games ends with both teams scoring in the teens.

This game kicking off Week 12 is unlikely to have many fantasy explosion performances, making it much more important to get the start-sit decisions right. With a low total and two teams lacking superstar power, be prepared for a low-scoring, defensive struggle.

I will bring you Thursday Night Football analysis all year, focusing on who to start, who is on the fence, and who should find the bench. Let's dive into this next awesome Thursday night matchup for Week 12 of the 2024 season. Good luck, RotoBallers!

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Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns - 8:15 p.m. EST

Notable Injuries:

• Elijah Moore (CLE - WR) - Shoulder - Questionable
• David Njoku (CLE - TE) - Knee - Questionable

Steelers vs. Browns Matchup Breakdown

The Cleveland Browns have unassailably been a different team with Jameis Winston at quarterback after Deshaun Watson was lost to injury. Including the game Watson left early due to injury in Week 7, the Browns have over 210 passing yards in each game since. That didn't happen once in the first six weeks. Winston has brought his gunslinger, YOLO-style play to the offense.

On the road for TNF ✨@Patrickqueen_ | #HereWeGo pic.twitter.com/eHxOPN6vek

— Pittsburgh Steelers (@steelers) November 19, 2024

Of course, that has only resulted in one win in four chances, but at least the Browns have been more competitive and more competent on offense. That will be tested against a Steelers defense that just held the mighty Baltimore Ravens to 16 points in Pittsburgh. The Steelers are sixth in the NFL over the last three games by allowing just 2.3 red-zone scoring attempts per game. They may give up yards, but they don't allow points.

Russell Wilson has transformed the offense into a more vertical attack in Pittsburgh, but it's only translated into a big fantasy day one time. Since his 25-point debut, he has been extremely mediocre over the last three games as the Steelers continue to prioritize running the ball. He lacks true playmakers outside of George Pickens, with the Steelers instead relying on their defense and the sure-footed Chris Boswell to win games.

Must-Starts for Fantasy Football Lineups

David Njoku (TE, CLE)

The Steelers are just middle of the pack in allowing fantasy points to the tight-end position, but David Njoku is turning into a PPR monster with Jameis Winston. He has 29 receptions over the last four games, including nine in Week 11 for 81 yards. Only Jerry Jeudy and Elijah Moore have more targets than Njoku, who is fifth in half-PPR scoring per game in 2024.

George Pickens (WR, PIT)

The move to Russell Wilson has been VERY good for George Pickens. He has fewer than seven targets just once in the last eight games and saw a season-high eight in Week 11. Since Week 7 when Wilson officially took over as quarterback, Pickens is the WR9 in half-PPR scoring with 15 points per game.

Streets are still wondering how George Pickens made this catch 😳#PITvsCLE – Thursday 8:15pm ET on Prime Video
Also streaming on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/OvKIa7TaBS

— NFL (@NFL) November 20, 2024

Solid Starts for Fantasy Football Lineups

Jerry Jeudy (WR, CLE)

Jerry Jeudy has loved the change at quarterback, especially from a usage perspective. He has 30 targets over the last three games and that has led to 294 receiving yards in those contests. His 142 yards and a touchdown last week were his best fantasy day of the season and Jeudy is starting to pull away as Winston's favorite wide receiver target.

Elijah Moore (WR, CLE)

Elijah Moore has at least six receptions in three of his last four games as he is turning into quite a possession receiver for Jameis Winston. His yards are lower than Jeudy and Tillman because of his lower average depth of target on throws his way, but Moore has become sure-handed and has at least eight targets in three straight games.

Elijah Moore per game with Jameis Winston:

8.5 targets
5.75 receptions
55 yards
.25 touchdowns

12.75 PPG

17-game pace of 98-935-4

Only 24 years old and a free flex play

— Akash (@YZR_Fantasy) November 18, 2024

Cedric Tillman (WR, CLE)

The funny thing about the Cleveland three-headed monster at the wide receiver position is that, under Jameis Winston, two of them have very good games each week, and then one is left out in the cold. In Week 11, that was Cedric Tillman, who caught three passes while he watched Jeudy and Moore catch 12 combined passes for 208 yards and two touchdowns. Maybe that means it's Tillman's turn this week.

Najee Harris (RB, PIT)

Najee Harris has touched the ball at least 21 times in four games in a row as he has evolved into a true workhorse running back this season. He has also scored a touchdown in three of his last five games and now faces a defense that has allowed nine rushing touchdowns, despite allowing just 836 rushing yards all season. Harris is a fine RB2 this week.

Pittsburgh D/ST

Only the Minnesota Vikings have more points than the Pittsburgh D/ST this season, and now they get a home matchup against a quarterback who has a tendency to throw interceptions and is protected by a line that is 31st in the NFL with a 10.6% sack rate allowed.

Consider Sitting for Fantasy Football Lineups

Jameis Winston (QB, CLE)

I do not doubt that chucking for 275 yards and two touchdowns is well within the range of outcomes for Jameis Winston. But I have to look at what Pittsburgh has done against opposing quarterbacks this season when determining whether or not to start Jameis. It is second in points per game allowed at just 11.5 per contest. Other streamers like Bo Nix or even Cooper Rush have much better matchups.

Absolute dime by Jameis Winston. 🎯💯🔥pic.twitter.com/kclPNZdYqj

— TJ Salomone (@TJSalomone) November 17, 2024

Nick Chubb and Jerome Ford (RBs, CLE)

Since Nick Chubb's return in Week 7, Chubb is RB38 and Jerome Ford is RB58 in fantasy points per game. Both are getting a decent amount of work, but neither can put together any kind of efficient outing or even score touchdowns. Against a top-10 defense against running backs, these two are sits this week.

Jaylen Warren (RB, PIT)

The backfield split we thought we would see this season has not materialized, and Warren has only played over 50% of snaps one time this year. He is RB48 on the season and doesn't have a game with more than eight points in half PPR.

Pat Freiermuth (TE, PIT)

While Russell Wilson has sparked the Pittsburgh offense, that has not included the tight-end position and Pat Freiermuth. Since Week 7, Freiermuth has been TE28 in fantasy points per game. Even his snaps played have started to fall off as well (only 58% of snaps in each of the last two games).

Targets in Russell Wilson's 4 games ...

Darnell Washington: 14

Pat Freiermuth: 10

— Jared Smola (@SmolaDS) November 19, 2024

Mike Williams and Calvin Austin III (WRs, PIT)

Pittsburgh is 31st in the NFL in passing play percentage and there are simply too few targets available to be guessing on the Steelers' third and fourth receiving options. These two receivers have four catches combined in the last two games.

Russell Wilson (QB, PIT)

As mentioned above, Russell Wilson has only been QB28 in fantasy points per game since Week 8, and his Week 7 high score is the only thing making him look like a reasonable starting quarterback in fantasy. This will be another establish-the-run, defense-first game where Wilson might connect on one moon shot, but won't be asked to do too much more.

Kirksey’s Thursday Night Football Picks

Current Spread: Pittsburgh -3.5
Over/Under: 36.5 (Down from 40.5 opening line)

It comes down to this. When the Pittsburgh Steelers play on the road in 2024, they allow opponents to score just 16.6 points per game against them. That includes games against the Commanders, Colts, and Falcons. There is a very good chance the Steelers shut down the Browns in this one despite being on the road, and they could wreak havoc on Jameis Winston.

Assuming the Browns score between 14 and 17 points, how the Steelers perform away from Pittsburgh will determine if this game hits the over on an implied total (36.5) that has been falling since it debuted. The Browns allow 25.2 points per game at home and have allowed at least 96 rushing yards in every game but one. If that trend continues, this game has a decent chance to hit the over. Barely.

Give me Pittsburgh 24, Cleveland 14.

The Pick: Pittsburgh -3.5, OVER 36.5 

2024 Record:
Spread (6-5), Over/Under (7-4)

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