X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Statcast Pitcher Studs and Duds - Advanced Metrics Leaders for xERA (Week 8)

Spencer Strider fantasy baseball rankings waiver wire pickups draft sleepers starting pitchers

Connelly Doan examines fantasy baseball pitcher risers and fallers, and whose xERA could make them adds, drops, or trade targets for Week 8.

Welcome back to another edition of RotoBaller’s Statcast Pitcher Studs and Duds article series! Each week, I will select one advanced metric, choose two pitchers with strong values and two with poor values, and analyze what those values may mean for future performance. There are many ERA skill indicator metrics that fantasy managers can use to understand how pitchers are performing beyond their peripherals. I wrote about SIERA last week, and this week I will write about expected ERA (xERA).

xERA is a 1:1 translation of the Expected Weighted On-Base Average (xwOBA) converted to the ERA scale. Like SIERA, xwOBA takes into account the amount of contact and the quality of that contact a pitcher allows in an attempt to credit them for the moment of contact. Unlike SIERA, xwOBA/xERA does not factor in ballpark conditions.

SIERA and xERA may be similar, but both are useful for fantasy managers. We are starting to gather a useful amount of data so fantasy managers can start identifying over and underachievers and buy-low/sell-high candidates. With that, let's dive into some xERA Studs and Duds!

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

xERA Studs for Fantasy Baseball

All stats are current as of Sunday morning, May 14, 2023.

Joe Ryan, Minnesota Twins

6-1, 2.16 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 2.15 xERA

Joe Ryan is a name fantasy managers have been familiar with for some time. His first full season in 2022 was promising, and he has taken more positive steps this season, putting together a 6-1 record with a 2.16 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, and 29.7% strikeout rate. His stellar 2.39 xERA supports his strong start. What changes has he made to lead to his improvements?

Ryan made substantial changes to his pitch arsenal that have been very effective. He has always relied heavily on a four-seam fastball but added a split-finger fastball and a sweeper this season. The splitter has been his main secondary pitch at 27.4%  usage and has yielded a .194 batting average against with a 13.4% swinging strike rate.

Ryan's new pitches have allowed his overall swinging strike rate to jump from 11.4% to 14.3% and his strikeout rate to jump from 25% to 29.7%. His pitch movement and location have led to a chase rate in the 99th percentile of baseball, which has helped the strikeouts but also helped cut his walk rate in half.

Ryan has pitched very well this season and his underlying stats support it. His new pitches have helped take his game to another level. There is no reason to think he won't continue to pitch well if he can locate his fastball in the top of the zone and get swings-and-misses and chases on his secondary pitches.

Spencer Strider, Atlanta Braves

4-1, 2.51 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 2.39 xERA

Spencer Strider burst onto the fantasy scene last season and has picked up right where he left off this season. The 24-year-old has gone 4-1 with a 2.51 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, and an insane 42.9% strikeout rate through his first eight starts. He has also compiled an excellent 2.39 xERA to back things up. How has he been so successful while essentially relying on two pitches?

The bottom line is you can be a successful starter with two pitches when both are completely overpowering. Strider's fastball comes in at 97 mph, putting it in the 93rd percentile of baseball. The pitch's spin rate is in the 83rd percentile of baseball, giving it a perception of rising. His slider also has above-average movement and a ridiculous 27.7% swinging strike rate.

Strider has actually allowed harder-than-average contact with an 18.8-degree launch angle, but he allows such little contact that it hasn't mattered. The rest of his Statcast profile is red across the board and his expected metrics are all excellent. He should continue to be a top-end fantasy starter with one of baseball's best pairing of pitches.

 

xERA Duds for Fantasy Baseball

All stats are current as of Sunday morning, May 14, 2023.

Michael Kopech, Chicago White Sox

1-4, 5.74 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 7.61 xERA

Michael Kopech turned in an encouraging 2022 season but has not been able to replicate it whatsoever in 2023. He has managed a 5.74 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 21.4% strikeout rate, and 14.6% walk rate through eight starts. Even more troubling, his 7.61 xERA is significantly higher than his ERA. Should fantasy managers hold out any hope he can return to 2022 form?

As of now, there are not any signs to suggest so. Walks have been the primary issue. Kopech's walk rate in 2022 was high at 11.5%, but 14.6% this season has been too high to work around.

Additionally, he has gotten crushed when contact has been made. Kopech's exit velocity and hard-hit rate are in the 12th and sixth percent of baseball, respectively, to go with a 19.6-degree launch angle. His BABIP is surprisingly low at .246, but he has allowed a lot of contact out of the park with a 2.55 HR/9 rate and a 20.7% HR/FB rate.

Fantasy managers were likely excited for Kopech this season, but few things have gone right for him. He has put too many batters on for free and has allowed a lot of hard contact in the air. His xERA suggests that he should actually be doing even worse. At this point, he has too many facets of his game to fix to make him a fantasy hopeful.

Rich Hill, Pittsburgh Pirates

3-3, 4.35 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 6.55 xERA

Rich Hill has once again been a useful fantasy option at times this season. The veteran has compiled a 3-3 record with a 4.35 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, and 19.9% strikeout rate in eight starts. However, his 6.55 xERA tells a different story. Does the 43-year-old still have something to offer fantasy managers, or should they be wary?

Hill is no longer a strikeout option due to his decreased velocity, so fantasy managers should take that out of the equation from the beginning. Looking deeper, his batted-ball profile has been above-average, allowing slightly less hard contact than league-average with a 17.1-degree launch angle. However, the rest of his Statcast profile is poor, particularly his expected stats.

Hill's xERA falls in line with the rest of his expected statistics, but his batted-ball profile seems to contradict it. Hill will likely allow more hits than average given his crafty approach and lack of overpowering stuff, but he seems to make things work overall. I would not suggest Hill in a roto league given his high WHIP and low strikeout rate, but I do think he is worth starting in decent matchups in points leagues at this time.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Sabermetrics and Statcast Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Daulton Varsho15 mins ago

Not Throwing In Games
Arizona Cardinals22 mins ago

Kelvin Beachum Re-Signs One-Year Deal With Cardinals
Cody Bellinger24 mins ago

Sitting With Back Stiffness
NFL28 mins ago

Travis Hunter To Run Routes At Pro Day On Friday
Hunter Feduccia33 mins ago

Recalled From Triple-A
Chase Dollander57 mins ago

To Make MLB Debut On Sunday Against A's
Cade Cunningham60 mins ago

In Danger Of Missing Friday's Game
Tyler Stuart1 hour ago

Promoted To Triple-A
Pascal Siakam1 hour ago

Iffy For Matchup With Jazz
Elias Díaz1 hour ago

Elias Diaz Hits The Bench On Friday
Gavin Sheets1 hour ago

Out Again Against Lefty
Aaron Nesmith1 hour ago

Could Miss Friday's Action
Michael Soroka2 hours ago

Heading To Injured List
Bennedict Mathurin2 hours ago

Questionable On Friday Against Jazz
Anthony Rizzo2 hours ago

Is Healthy And Wants To Play In 2025
St. Louis Cardinals2 hours ago

Chen-Wei Lin Dealing With Undisclosed Injury
Kenyon Martin Jr.2 hours ago

Ruled Out Friday With Illness
Matt Vierling2 hours ago

Still Not Throwing
Cooper Hjerpe2 hours ago

Opening Season On Double-A Injured List
José Ramírez2 hours ago

Jose Ramirez Motivated To Get Even Better
Grant Taylor2 hours ago

Assigned To Double-A
Josh Emmett2 hours ago

An Underdog At UFC Vegas 105
Alex Cobb2 hours ago

Set For Live Batting Practice
Dallas Cowboys2 hours ago

Cowboys Still Searching For Their Lead Running Back
Cooper Pratt2 hours ago

Starting Season With Double-A Biloxi
Lerone Murphy2 hours ago

A Favorite At UFC Vegas 105
Mike Boeve2 hours ago

Will Miss Start Of Double-A Regular Season
Pat Sabatini2 hours ago

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Seth Curry2 hours ago

Listed As Probable Friday
Andrew Painter3 hours ago

Set To Throw Live Batting Practice
Joanderson Brito3 hours ago

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Mark Williams3 hours ago

Likely To Play On Friday
Cortavious Romious3 hours ago

Looks For His First UFC Win
Thomas Saggese3 hours ago

Cardinals Recall Thomas Saggese From Triple-A
Nolan Gorman3 hours ago

Placed On 10-Day Injured List With Hamstring Strain
ChangHo Lee4 hours ago

Looks For His Second UFC Win
Brad Tavares4 hours ago

Set For Middleweight Bout
Gerald Meerschaert4 hours ago

Set For His 23rd UFC Bout
Ezequiel Tovar4 hours ago

Off To A Slow Start In 2025
Luis Gurule5 hours ago

Looks To Remain Undefeated
Ode' Osbourne5 hours ago

In Dire Need Of Victory
Robert Valentin5 hours ago

Set To Open Up UFC Vegas 105 Main Card
Torrez Finney5 hours ago

Set For UFC Debut
Dustin Wolf7 hours ago

Snaps Skid On Thursday
Wyatt Johnston8 hours ago

Scores In Sixth Straight Game
Linus Ullmark8 hours ago

Stops 31 Shots In Victory
Nick Suzuki8 hours ago

Has Goal, Assist On Thursday
Leon Draisaitl8 hours ago

Can Not Finish Thursday's Contest
John Gibson8 hours ago

Exits Early On Thursday
Nikola Jokić17 hours ago

Nikola Jokic Expected To Play On Friday
Jonathan Kuminga17 hours ago

Back On Thursday Night
Miles Boykin18 hours ago

Heading To Chicago
Jalen Wilson19 hours ago

Sidelined On Thursday
Baker Mayfield19 hours ago

Tampa Bay Restructures Baker Mayfield's Deal
Case Keenum19 hours ago

Chicago Signs Case Keenum To One-Year Deal
Kyshawn George19 hours ago

Unavailable For Thursday
Richaun Holmes20 hours ago

Out Versus Magic
Khris Middleton20 hours ago

Out Again Thursday Versus Magic
D'Angelo Russell20 hours ago

Good To Go On Thursday
Noah Clowney20 hours ago

Done For Rest Of The Season
Jordan Poole20 hours ago

Unavailable For Thursday
Scottie Barnes20 hours ago

Available On Thursday
Jonathan Drouin20 hours ago

Martin Necas, Jonathan Drouin Unavailable Thursday
Tyrese Maxey21 hours ago

Expected To Miss Rest Of Season
Alexandar Georgiev21 hours ago

Nursing An Upper-Body Injury
Henry Thrun21 hours ago

Returns From Nine-Game Absence Thursday
Olli Määttä21 hours ago

Olli Maatta Returns To Utah Lineup Thursday
Dylan Guenther21 hours ago

Ready To Go Thursday
Anthony Duclair21 hours ago

Takes Leave Of Absence
Alex Pietrangelo21 hours ago

On Track To Return Thursday
Brady Tkachuk21 hours ago

Out On Thursday
Trey McBride22 hours ago

Cardinals Making Trey McBride The Highest-Paid Tight End In NFL History
Geno Smith22 hours ago

Raiders, Geno Smith Agree To Two-Year Extension
24 hours ago

Tyler Shough Could Be Day 2 Pick In NFL Draft
Dallas Cowboys24 hours ago

Shemar Stewart Meeting With Cowboys Staff
New York Giants24 hours ago

Travis Hunter The Likely Pick For Giants?
Dallas Cowboys1 day ago

DeMarvion Overshown Aiming For Comeback Player Of The Year Award
Washington Commanders1 day ago

Commanders Sign T.J. Maguranyanga
Kansas City Chiefs1 day ago

Mike Edwards Reunites With Chiefs
New Orleans Saints1 day ago

Saints Could Take A Quarterback Early In The Draft
Joe Milton III1 day ago

Traded To Cowboys
Anfernee Simons1 day ago

Could Be Absent Again Thursday
Scoot Henderson1 day ago

Misses Third Consecutive Game Thursday
Scottie Barnes1 day ago

Iffy For Thursday
Jared McCann1 day ago

Tallies Three Helpers On Wednesday
Jackson Blake1 day ago

Scores Twice In Victory
Artemi Panarin1 day ago

Tallies Three Points In Overtime Victory
Andrei Svechnikov1 day ago

Exits Early On Wednesday
Jake McCabe1 day ago

Suffers Injury On Wednesday
Jonathan Drouin1 day ago

Exits Wednesday's Contest
Los Angeles Chargers2 days ago

Chargers Sign Tight End Jordan Petaia
2 days ago

Matthew Golden Making Pre-Draft Visit To Steelers
Cincinnati Bengals2 days ago

Trey Hendrickson Not Looking For Short-Term Deal
Tutu Atwell2 days ago

Rams Plan To Give Tutu Atwell A Bigger Role In 2025
Tampa Bay Buccaneers2 days ago

Bucs Restructure Antoine Winfield's Deal To Free Up Cap Space
Evgeni Malkin2 days ago

Joins Penguins For Road Trip
Cameron Young3 days ago

A Player To Avoid At Valero Texas Open
Kurt Kitayama3 days ago

In Search Of Consistency At Valero Texas Open
Si Woo Kim3 days ago

Looking To Bounce Back At Valero Texas Open
Tom Hoge3 days ago

Looking To Build Off Strong Performance At The PLAYERS Championship
Matt Fitzpatrick3 days ago

Looking For Consistency At Valero Texas Open
Corey Conners3 days ago

Continues Strong Form Ahead Of Valero Texas Open
Patrick Cantlay3 days ago

Eyeing Victory At Valero Texas Open
Gary Woodland3 days ago

Showing Great Form Ahead Of Valero Texas Open
Akshay Bhatia3 days ago

Aiming For Repeat At Valero Texas Open
Alejandro Tosti3 days ago

A Volatile Choice At TPC San Antonio
Jordan Spieth3 days ago

Needs To Find Consistency At TPC San Antonio
Jake Knapp3 days ago

Making First Appearance At Valero Texas Open
Michael Kim3 days ago

Looking To Find The Magic Again In San Antonio
Tommy Fleetwood3 days ago

Is Nearly A Must-Play At Valero Texas Open
Tony Finau3 days ago

Hoping For Better Approach Play In San Antonio
Eric Cole3 days ago

Trending In Right Direction Ahead Of Valero
Sam Stevens4 days ago

Enjoys Nice Result In Houston
PGA4 days ago

J.T. Poston Seeks To Contend At Valero Texas Open
Denny McCarthy4 days ago

Keeps Making Cuts But Needs To Make More Putts
Brian Harman4 days ago

Off To A Subpar 2025 So Far
Ryan Preece4 days ago

Has Three Straight Top-10 Finishes For First Time In His Career
NASCAR4 days ago

Bubba Wallace After Third-Place Finish At Martinsville: "What a Great Day"
Todd Gilliland4 days ago

Has Mistake-Free Day At Martinsville, Grabs Another Top-10 Finish
Brandon Moreno4 days ago

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Steve Erceg4 days ago

Losses Third Consecutive Fight
Drew Dober4 days ago

Gets Knocked Out At UFC Mexico City
Manuel Torres4 days ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Harry Hall4 days ago

Bounces Back In Houston Last Week
CJ Vergara4 days ago

Gets Submitted
Édgar Cháirez4 days ago

Edgar Chairez Gets Submission Win At UFC Mexico City
Vince Morales4 days ago

Drops Decision At UFC Mexico City
Raul Rosas Jr.4 days ago

Gets Decision Win At UFC Mexico City
Saimon Oliveira4 days ago

Still Winless In The UFC
Christopher Bell4 days ago

Powers His Way To A Second-Place Finish At Martinsville
Chase Elliott4 days ago

Strong Martinsville Performance Ends With A Top-Five Finish
Kyle Larson4 days ago

Collects A Top-Five Finish At Martinsville
William Byron4 days ago

Places 22nd After Struggles At Martinsville
Joey Logano4 days ago

Claims His First 2025 Top-10 Finish After Up-And-Down Performance
Tyler Reddick4 days ago

Fails To Place In The Top 10 At Martinsville
Denny Hamlin4 days ago

Silences Doubters After Crew-Chief Change
Ty Gibbs4 days ago

Earns Best 2025 Finish At Martinsville Despite Failing Cool Suit
Ross Chastain4 days ago

Has A Great Day At Martinsville
Chase Briscoe4 days ago

Has Solid Run At Martinsville
Erik Jones4 days ago

Disqualified At Martinsville For Weight Violation
Josh Berry5 days ago

Has Top-10 Upside At Martinsville
Joey Logano5 days ago

Don't Overlook Joey Logano This Weekend
Ryan Preece5 days ago

Could Get First Three-Race Top-10 Streak Of His Career
Chase Elliott5 days ago

Looking To Continue Great Runs At Martinsville
Christopher Bell5 days ago

Wins Pole At Martinsville, But Can He Stay Up There?
Ryan Blaney5 days ago

Fast In Practice But Skeptical About Car
Denny Hamlin5 days ago

New Crew Chief Has Terrible Martinsville Record
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 
Michael Florio's Football Show - Podcast RotoBaller Network

Florio's Football Show: NFL Draft QB Scouting Report!

Michael F. Florio gives his scouting report for the 2025 NFL Draft QB class. Do Cam Ward and Shedeur Sanders live up the hype? Should you be excited about Jaxson Dart and Jalen Milroe? Plus, he goes over the deeper options in this class! Be sure to also tune into RotoBaller Radio on SiriusXM (SiriusXM channel […]


UFL RANKINGS, FANTASY FOOTBALL,

UFL Best Bets: Week 2 Picks

Well, the opening week is always full of curveballs, and 2025 was no exception. We actually saw the Birmingham Stallions lose a game, looking bad in the process. Overall, I went 3-3-1 on spreads and over/unders last week, so a bit inconvenient that neither parlay worked out. It is a short season, so the pressure […]


Isaiah Bond - College Football Rankings, NCAA CFB DFS Lineup Picks - NFL Draft

Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Sleepers: 5 Undervalued Draft Targets

We all know at this point who the top names are heading into the 2025 NFL Draft. Ashton Jeanty will be the dynasty rookie RB1. Tetairoa McMillan will be the rookie WR1. But fantasy leagues aren't won just by getting a top-2 or three rookie pick and grabbing the best guys. Rookie drafts are also […]


Ja'Marr Chase fantasy football rankings NFL DFS lineup picks

Two-Round Start-Up Dynasty Fantasy Football Mock Draft: 12-Team, Single Quarterback

The players you select in the early rounds of dynasty fantasy football start-up drafts have a massive impact on the chances of your team winning for many seasons after the first one. So it's crucial to nail these picks, and there are a few ways you can do that. Obviously, no one's being selected in […]


Tetairoa McMillan - College Football DFS Lineup Picks, NCAA CFB, NFL Draft Prospect

2025 Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Mock Draft: 12-Team, Single-QB

Thankfully, fans and fantasy football players only have to wait a few more weeks for the 2025 NFL Draft. That means dynasty fantasy rookie mock drafts are right around the corner. While dynasty fantasy outlooks for the NFL Draft prospects will change between today and the end of April, it’s time for another dynasty rookie […]


Davante Adams - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Fantasy Football Outlooks For Wide Receivers On New Teams: Davante Adams, DK Metcalf, Stefon Diggs, Cooper Kupp, Christian Kirk, and more

The 2025 NFL offseason has been full of breaking news alerts. Last year, all the action was at the running back position, with Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, and Josh Jacobs changing teams. However, all the action has been at the wide receiver position this offseason. Some big-name wide receivers remained with their current teams. Tee […]


Bijan Robinson - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Rookies, Draft Sleepers

Fantasy Football Running Back Preview: Targets & Sleepers For 2025 Drafts

While the NFL is in the middle of its offseason, the fantasy football world never takes a break. Much in the fantasy world will change between now and the start of the regular season. Yet, let’s take an early look at the running back position for 2025 fantasy football drafts. Below are three early-round studs, […]


Russell Wilson - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL DFS Picks

Fantasy Football Outlooks For QBs On New Teams: Russell Wilson, Justin Fields, Sam Darnold, Geno Smith, more

The NFL quarterback carousel gets to spin every offseason, and plenty of QBs have already found new homes ahead of the 2025 NFL season. For fantasy football, a player's surrounding team is extremely important, so it's worth looking into each of their outlooks with their new squads. There are still a few unsigned QBs, but […]


Shedeur Sanders - College Football Rankings, NCAA CFB DFS Lineup Picks

2025 Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Mock Draft: 12-Team, Superflex/Two-QB

The 2025 NFL Draft is still less than 30 days away. Therefore, dynasty fantasy rookie mock drafts are nearly here. Much will change between now and the NFL Draft. However, it’s time for another dynasty rookie mock draft. This rookie mock draft is a two-round, 12-team, and two-quarterbacks. For a deeper dive into dynasty strategy, […]


Deshaun Watson - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2025 NFL Offseason Team Needs: Bengals, Browns, Ravens, Steelers

The AFC North, comprised of the Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, and Pittsburgh Steelers, sent two teams to the playoffs in 2024 and had one on the cusp of a playoff berth. The Ravens have the best roster of the four teams by a long shot. The Steelers have a solid defensive group, and […]


UFL RANKINGS, FANTASY FOOTBALL,

UFL Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 2: QB, RB, WR, TE Rankings and Analysis (2025)

Week 2 of the UFL season is just around the corner. This week will feature one game on Friday, one game on Saturday, and two on Sunday. Birmingham and Michigan will play at 8:00 p.m. EDT on Friday, followed by Memphis-D.C. on Saturday at 8:00 p.m. EDT. Sunday's game pits the 1-0 Renegades against the […]


Calvin Ridley - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL DFS Picks, Draft Sleepers

Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings: Overvalued, Undervalued Players (2025)

Dynasty fantasy football rankings constantly shift, especially as we inch closer to the new season and fantasy drafts. Dynasty managers know the importance of finding those underrated players who could be steals in drafts or trades. They also know some players are overhyped due to unsustainable trends or past production. I'll break down two overvalued […]


Justin Fields - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Best Fantasy Football Moves During 2025 NFL Free Agency

It has been a wild offseason so far in the NFL. Plenty of players have switched teams in free agency, and some stars were even traded. Deebo Samuel Sr. was dealt to the Washington Commanders, Geno Smith was traded to the Las Vegas Raiders, and DK Metcalf has a new home with the Pittsburgh Steelers. These […]