X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Statcast Pitcher Risers/Fallers - O-Swings-and-Misses (Week 9)

Welcome back to Rotoballer's series using Statcast to extrapolate, dig into, and commiserate over data to examine pitching performances. The weekly series will be dynamic as we fine-tune our findings and enlighten ourselves on the information and tools at our disposal.

For the first two months of the season, the baseball community has fixated on the alarming increase in strikeouts. Through May 29, the average team's strikeout-to-hit ratio (K/H) is 1.03, an +8% increase compared to the entirety of 2017 (0.95). Although that may not seem shocking, there has never been an MLB season where strikeouts exceeded hits. This has a trickle-down effect on pitcher usage and our related fantasy assets; more strikeouts, more pitches thrown, fewer innings pitched, less emphasis on starters, you get the point.

Today we focus on the importance of strikeouts for fantasy pitchers. The metric we'll stress is O-Swings-and-Misses (O-SM%). O-Swing% is defined by Fangraphs as pitches outside the zone plus swings at pitches outside the zone. We'll take it a step farther and look only at swinging strikes, ignoring other results outside the zone. The argument is pitchers that get more chases outside of the strike zone have better odds of maintaining their K/9, increasing their season-long fantasy value. For reference, the median O-SM% is 5.3%. Comparatively, the median Zone-swings-and-misses (Z-SM%) is 4.7%.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and weekly lineup resources:

 

Whiff Wizards

All stats as of May 29 for 112 qualified pitchers with over 750 pitches thrown

Patrick Corbin, Arizona Diamondbacks (5-1, 2.47 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 11.42 K/9)

We discussed the prowess of Patrick Corbin a couple weeks ago in our topic on early-inning slugging percentage. A possible reason Corbin has been so effective in retiring batters is he leads the majors with a 9.4% O-SM%. Pair this with an above average Z-SM% of 5.0% and the outcomes are justified.

Corbin's current K/9 is up a full +35% on last year's 8.45 clip, so it's safe to say his strikeouts haven't been dependent on league trends. Corbin peeled back on his four-seamer and upped his sinker usage to 32%. The average velocity on both pitches are nearly identical, except Corbin gets 8.7 inches of horizontal movement on the sinker compared to less than five inches for his fastball. The resulting effect has been strong pitch values on both pitches that have been historically poor for Corbin. Combine that with his bread-and-butter slider and Corbin's become a legitimate strikeout guru.

The risks with Corbin remain unchanged. He's gone seven-plus innings only thrice in 10 games and his .232 BABIP blatantly contradicts a 40.9% Hard%. He's sixth in the league in LOB% (85.5%), but that could certainly be a perk of the strikeouts. There's also been recent murmur about the dip in his fastball velocity which he's gradually deemphasized. His 3.03 FIP and 2.69 xFIP suggests Corbin's been no fluke through two months. Enjoy the strikeouts, and let the breakout unfold.

Trevor Bauer, Cleveland Indians (4-3, 2.61 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 10.70 K/9)

In the offseason, we used Trevor Bauer as an example of how more first-pitch strikes could lead to higher strikeouts overall. Compared to 2017, Bauer has increased his F-Strike% from 56.9% to 61.5%. Correspondingly, the K/9 has ticked up slightly from last year's personal best 10.0. Well done, Trevor.

Bauer is 10th in the majors with a 7.6% O-SM% and also enjoys a decent 5.0% Z-SM%. He's carried over last year's second-half success and continues emphasizing a very effective slider, generating an excellent whiff percentage near 20%. Bauer's 6.4 wSL pitch value is good for eighth-best in baseball. Since pitches in a plate appearance are interdependent, it's no wonder the values for his remaining arsenal are also better.

Since Bauer's K/9 hasn't upgraded as materially as Corbin's, it's fair to nitpick. His BB/9 hasn't budged from last year (3.11) and he's been extra lucky with the long ball (0.50 HR/FB). However, a lot more seems real than luck. The BABIP (.291), LOB% (77.1%) and batted-ball distribution seem in-line with prevailing trends and aren't a concern. There was significant hype on Bauer's revelation last season and his embracing of analytics. The dividends thus far in 2018 look to be bearing fruit.

Other strikeout contenders: Kenta Maeda (LAD, 8.0% O-SM%), Dylan Bundy (BAL, 7.3%), Luis Castillo (CIN, 7.1%)

 

Swing and No Miss

Trevor Williams, Pittsburgh Pirates (5-3, 3.43 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 6.14 K/9)

Trevor Williams is another familiar name in our series. We contemplated his impending downfall in Week 6 when we deemed his two-strike batting average too fortunate. Another fly in the ointment was the meager K/9 that no longer holds water in today's game. Williams currently has the fourth-lowest O-SM% at 3.0%. Combine that with an unremarkable 4.3% Z-SM% and he remains a tough buy.

The issue with Williams isn't just the low strikeouts, but that he also lives outside the zone (41.5% Zone%). Inducing soft contact and putting balls in play is fine, but having issues with getting batters to chase and refusing to challenge them doesn't do any good. Williams' repertoire predominantly relies on a fastball and sinker and neither have been great nor overpowering. Although the walks have improved, he still owns an inefficient 2.15 K/BB.

In fairness to Williams, his previously disturbing peripheral metrics have somewhat normalized. Along with fewer free passes, his BABIP (.243) and HR/FB (9.5%) have climbed to more appropriate levels. He's even raised the K/9 closer to last season's 7.0 mark. There's no doubt Williams may be serviceable during the year, but at best he's a start-to-start streamer. His FIP still sits stubbornly at 4.19 (4.64 xFIP), and the swing and miss data simply doesn't validate a long-term roster spot on fantasy teams.

Tyler Chatwood, Chicago Cubs (3-4, 4.10 ERA, 1.76 WHIP, 8.19 K/9)

Finally, a new name to deliberate. Tyler Chatwood's been awful. Even as we consider the respectable K/9, it's incredible that his K/BB is a ghastly 0.98. That figure is easily worst in the majors. Unsurprisingly, Chatwood's 3.8% O-SM% 15th-lowest in the majors. Possibly less encouraging is his 3.3% Z-SM%. Hitting the strike zone and producing contact is not an ideal combination.

There was a time in Chatwood's career he was better at inducing swinging strikes. Compared to 2017, the whiff rates for his four primary pitches (fastball, sinker, slider, curveball) have declined. It's difficult to pinpoint the deterioration, but velocity is down across the board. He's also lost some vertical movement in his sinker, which he utilizes almost 33% of the time. Another factor could be the blatant wildness, which has likely prevented him from throwing "his pitch" on demand.

Chatwood's K/9 this year is currently the highest in his seven-year career. But the dilution from the walks makes that contra-argument almost meaningless. Chatwood's WHIP has crushed his in-game durability and fantasy value. He's lasted less than five innings in four of nine starts. Until he rediscovers the strike zone, Chatwood is impossible to trust. His ownership level is egregiously higher than other K/BB cellar dwellers like Ty Blach, Sal Romano and James Shields. Come on, fantasy owners, you're better than that.

Other strikeout pretenders: David Price (BOS, 3.0% O-SM%, Jake Arrieta (PHI, 3.2%), Brandon McCarthy (ATL, 3.2%)

 

More Sabermetrics & Fantasy Baseball Strategy




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Noah Fant2 hours ago

Questionable For Week 12, Update Coming On Saturday
Brock Purdy4 hours ago

Week 13 Status Uncertain
Kyle Finnegan4 hours ago

Nationals Non-Tender Kyle Finnegan On Friday
Dylan Carlson4 hours ago

Rays Non-Tender Dylan Carlson
Brendan Rodgers4 hours ago

Rockies Non-Tender Brendan Rodgers, Cal Quantrill
Mike Yastrzemski5 hours ago

Avoids Arbitration With Giants
Jordan Romano5 hours ago

Blue Jays Non-Tender Closer Jordan Romano
Dustin May5 hours ago

Dodgers Sign Dustin May To One-Year Deal To Avoid Arbitration
Walker Kessler5 hours ago

Might Return To Action Saturday
Kyle Filipowski5 hours ago

To Miss Saturday's Game
Jordan Clarkson5 hours ago

Considered Questionable For Saturday
Miles McBride5 hours ago

Questionable To Face Jazz
Joel Embiid5 hours ago

To Remain Out On Sunday
Nikola Jokic5 hours ago

Returns To Action Friday
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope6 hours ago

No Longer On Injury Report
Wendell Carter Jr.6 hours ago

Considered Questionable For Saturday
Brady Singer6 hours ago

Shipped To Cincinnati
Jonathan India6 hours ago

Traded To Kansas City
Tre Mann6 hours ago

Listed As Out For Saturday
Torrey Craig6 hours ago

Available Versus Hawks
Nick Richards6 hours ago

Ruled Out For Saturday
Jarace Walker6 hours ago

Ready To Face Bucks
Ben Sheppard6 hours ago

Misses A Third Consecutive Game
Anfernee Simons7 hours ago

Returns To Action Friday
Ja Morant7 hours ago

Considered Doubtful For Saturday
Jerami Grant7 hours ago

Ready For Action Friday
Marcus Smart7 hours ago

Questionable For Saturday
Deandre Ayton7 hours ago

Remains Out On Friday
Yves Missi7 hours ago

Will Not Play On Friday
Stephen Curry7 hours ago

Available Versus Pelicans
Scoot Henderson7 hours ago

Absent On Friday
Rashod Bateman8 hours ago

Added To Week 12 Injury Report
Vince Dunn8 hours ago

Could Be An Option For Kraken Next Week
TOR8 hours ago

Alexander Nylander Joins Maple Leafs On One-Year Deal
George Kittle8 hours ago

Cleared For Week 12
Jason Dickinson8 hours ago

Expected To Play On Saturday
Cam York8 hours ago

Expected To Return Saturday
San Francisco 49ers9 hours ago

Nick Bosa Won't Play Against Packers
Mason McTavish9 hours ago

Remains Out On Friday
Brock Purdy9 hours ago

Ruled Out For Week 12
Tage Thompson9 hours ago

Continues To Sit On Friday
Kevin Hayes9 hours ago

A Game-Time Call Friday
Kris Letang9 hours ago

Might Return On Friday
Ladd McConkey9 hours ago

Returns To Practice On Friday
CeeDee Lamb9 hours ago

Cleared To Play In Week 12
Sam LaPorta9 hours ago

Off The Injury Report, Cleared For Week 12
Jake Ferguson10 hours ago

Ruled Out With Concussion
DeVonta Smith10 hours ago

Ruled Out For Week 12
Brock Purdy10 hours ago

Not Seen At Friday's Practice
T.J. Hockenson10 hours ago

Expects To Be More Involved In Week 12
Alexander Mattison11 hours ago

Zamir White Doubtful To Face Broncos
Nico Collins11 hours ago

Set For Increased Workload Against Titans
Mike Evans11 hours ago

Officially Listed As Questionable
Malik Nabers11 hours ago

Questionable For Week 12, Intends To Play
Sam Darnold11 hours ago

Cleared For Sunday
D'Andre Swift11 hours ago

Gets Questionable Tag For Week 12
Keenan Allen12 hours ago

Lands On Injury Report, Questionable For Week 12
Isiah Pacheco12 hours ago

Ruled Out For Week 12
Shohei Ohtani13 hours ago

In Early Stages Of Recovery From Shoulder Surgery
Tabatha Ricci13 hours ago

Looks To Extend Her Win Streak
Yan Xiaonan14 hours ago

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Muslim Salikhov14 hours ago

A Favorite At UFC Macau
Chris Sale14 hours ago

To Have Normal Offseason
Garrett Crochet14 hours ago

Drawing Plenty Of Interest
Song Kenan14 hours ago

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Zhang Mingyang14 hours ago

Set For His Second UFC Fight
Ozzy Diaz14 hours ago

An Underdog At UFC Macau
MacKenzie Weegar17 hours ago

Notches Three Assists Against Rangers
Macklin Celebrini17 hours ago

Tallies Two Assists In Thursday's Loss
Nikita Kucherov17 hours ago

Comes Up With Three Assists Versus Blue Jackets
Sean Monahan18 hours ago

Finishes Thursday's Win With Four Points
Zach Werenski18 hours ago

Enjoys Career Night With Five Points Against Lightning
Jack Hughes18 hours ago

Posts Three Assists Versus Hurricanes
Joonas Korpisalo18 hours ago

Records 21-Save Shutout Versus Utah
Carlos Ulberg1 day ago

Looking To Cement Himself As A Title Contender At UFC Macau
Volkan Oezdemir1 day ago

Eyes Another Knockout At UFC Macau
Gabriella Fernandes1 day ago

A Big Underdog At UFC Macau
MMA1 day ago

Cong Wang Puts Undefeated Record On The Line At UFC Macau
Deiveson Figueiredo1 day ago

Looks To Extend Win Streak At UFC Macau
Petr Yan1 day ago

A Favorite At UFC Macau
Shohei Ohtani1 day ago

Named National League MVP In 2024
Aaron Judge1 day ago

Wins American League MVP Award
Alex Ovechkin1 day ago

To Miss 4-6 Weeks With Fractured Fibula
Zach Hyman1 day ago

Expected To Miss 4-7 Days
Kent Johnson1 day ago

Back For Blue Jackets Thursday
Yaroslav Askarov1 day ago

Makes Sharks Debut Thursday
Mikael Granlund1 day ago

Good To Go Thursday
Alexandar Georgiev1 day ago

Returns To Action Versus Capitals
Cody Bellinger1 day ago

Cubs Looking To Trade Cody Bellinger?
1 day ago

Blake Snell Has Met With Red Sox, Dodgers
Chris Sale2 days ago

Wins National League Cy Young Award
Tarik Skubal2 days ago

Wins 2024 American League Cy Young Award
Austin Eckroat2 days ago

Heads To The RSM Classic After Win
Harris English2 days ago

Finding Form Heading To The RSM Classic
Ben Griffin2 days ago

Continues Playing Well Heading To The RSM Classic
Denny McCarthy2 days ago

Returns to The RSM Classic
Ludvig Aberg2 days ago

Looks To Defend RSM Classic Title
Si Woo Kim2 days ago

An Intriguing Option At RSM Classic
Maverick McNealy2 days ago

In Solid Form Ahead Of RSM Classic
Eric Cole2 days ago

Chasing First Tour Victory At RSM Classic
3 days ago

Guardians' Stephen Vogt Named AL Manager Of The Year
Milwaukee Brewers3 days ago

Pat Murphy Named NL Manager Of The Year
3 days ago

Nick Pivetta Declines Boston's Qualifying Offer
Jose Siri3 days ago

Mets Acquire Jose Siri From The Rays
Charles Oliveira5 days ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Michael Chandler5 days ago

Gets Dominated At UFC 309
Karine Silva5 days ago

Suffers Her First UFC Loss
Viviane Araujo5 days ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Mauricio Ruffy5 days ago

Extends His Win Streak To Six
James Llontop6 days ago

Loses Clear-Cut Decision In Thrilling Fight At UFC 309
Paul Craig6 days ago

Loses Decision At UFC 309
Bo Nickal6 days ago

Remains Undefeated With Lackluster Performance At UFC 309
Stipe Miocic6 days ago

Retires After UFC 309 Loss

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 
Mike Evans - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Fantasy Football Injury Reports For Week 12 (Friday Updates): Mike Evans, Isiah Pacheco, Tyreek Hill, George Kittle, CeeDee Lamb, Jalen Hurts, Calvin Ridley, more

It's now Friday of Week 12, meaning the final injury reports for all teams have been released. We now have the official designations of each player dealing with injuries ahead of their Week 12 contests, meaning we have the best information we'll have until unofficial speculative reports and final active/inactive lists are released. There are […]


Ashton Jeanty - College Football Rankings, NCAA CFB DFS Lineup Picks

Fantasy Football Dynasty Watch: Top College Fantasy Football Players Week 12 (2024)

Welcome back to another season of Fantasy Football Dynasty Watch, where I highlight the best and brightest performances from the college football week. The Big 12(16) took center stage this week and Tennessee fell to the ranks of most SEC contenders with two losses. Here are the players who showed out that you may have […]


Video: Week 12 Booms, Sleepers, and Streamers - 2024 Fantasy Football Start 'Em Analysis

And here...we...go... The YouTube team is dropping fresh fire content for the weekend ahead with our top Week 12 booms, sleepers, and streamers! NFL Network and RotoBaller contributor LaQuan Jones gives in-depth fantasy football advice, breaking down some of his high-upside, sleeper, and value plays as we head into Week 12 of the new fantasy […]


RotoBaller NFL Betting Picks Stock

2024 NFL Week 12 Betting Picks (Premium Content)

All other Premium Tools and Content can be accessed on the premium dashboard. To see ALL of Jamie's bets (and others from RotoBaller experts) then head over to the RotoBaller Discord. You'll find every bet and prop in the #NFL-BETTING-PROPS channel there!   Background My name is Jamie Calandro (@jac3600 on X) and I have […]


DeVon Achane - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL DFS Picks, Injury News

Fantasy Football Start 'Em, Sit 'Em - Week 12 Matchups Analysis

Welcome back, RotoBallers, to another start'em and sit'em piece as we look ahead to Week 12! There will be a whopping six teams on bye this week (Atlanta Falcons, Buffalo Bills, Cincinnati Bengals, New Orleans Saints, Jacksonville Jaguars, and New York Jets), so that means fantasy managers might need to look deeper on their benches. This Week 12 matchups […]


Josh Downs - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

WR/CB Matchups to Upgrade and Downgrade - Fantasy Football Week 12 (2024)

Welcome back to our WR/CB Matchups for Week 12 of the 2024 fantasy football season. For those unfamiliar, this weekly series looks at fantasy football matchups for wide receivers versus the cornerbacks who are projected to cover them. The data we access for offensive and defensive players continues to skyrocket. Though we mainly focus on offensive […]


Houston Texans Defense D/ST Streamers, Rankings, Waiver Wire - Derek Stingley Fantasy Football IDP

D/ST Strength of Schedule: Best Fantasy Football Defense Streamers and Matchups (Weeks 12-17)

Ahh, the good old Defense/Special Teams (DST) position in fantasy football. It is a controversial inclusion in fantasy lineups for some fantasy players, but strategizing around DSTs is one of my favorite aspects of the in-season fantasy football experience. In the article below, I will present the strength of schedule (SOS) for the fantasy Defense/Special […]


NFL DFS: FanDuel Daily Fantasy Football Picks for Week 12 - Top Lineup Plays Include Jayden Daniels, Jahmyr Gibbs, Jared Goff, Puka Nacua

It’s already Week 12, although the end of the 2024-25 campaign can’t come soon enough for teams like the Jaguars, Raiders, Giants, and Panthers, to name a few. On the other hand, clubs like the Bills, Chiefs, and Lions are only a few weeks away from officially punching their tickets to the postseason.   In […]


Braelon Allen - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Best Fantasy Football Playoff Schedules for Waiver Wire Streamers, Stashes (Weeks 15-17)

Planning too far in advance to align your fantasy football players for an optimal playoff performance comes with many pitfalls. However, positioning yourself for good fortune in Weeks 15 through 17 should be a key piece of your strategy if you're in line to make the bracket. Fantasy players still have time to trade for […]


Bo Nix - Fantasy Football Rankings, QB, NFL Rookies, Draft Sleepers

The King's Week 12 Lineup Rankings and Analysis (Premium Content)

RotoBaller senior writer Scott "The King" Engel shares his Week 12 fantasy football lineup rankings for PPR, half PPR, and standard scoring league participants. He also provides an analysis of the rankings at every skill position. Regular starting options are included to highlight that some of your must-start players have a good chance of supplying […]


Courtland Sutton - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Week 12 DraftKings NFL DFS Picks - Main Slate (2024): Anthony Richardson, Brian Robinson Jr., Courtland Sutton, and more

How's it going, RotoBallers? Welcome back to our DraftKings Main Slate article. Known around the fantasy football world as "Bye-Mageddon," Week 12 certainly offers up some unique challenges from a DFS perspective. Don't worry, we'll work through those difficulties to find the best plays we can on this slate. These DraftKings lineup recommendations are based […]


Brian Robinson Jr. - Fantasy Football Rankings Running Backs, Waiver Wire Sleepers, NFL DFS Picks

Bold Predictions for Fantasy Football Week 12: Tua Tagovailoa, Rhamondre Stevenson, Brian Robinson Jr., Ladd McConkey, Will Dissly

Week 12 is here, and I’m back with another edition of fantasy football bold predictions. This week’s list of bold predictions will include Tua Tagovailoa, Rhamondre Stevenson, Brian Robinson Jr., Ladd McConkey, and Will Dissly. Every week, I will provide some fun and bold fantasy football predictions. While these bold predictions aren’t the most likely […]


Ladd McConkey - Fantasy Football Rankings, Rookies, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Booms and Busts - Fantasy Football Starts and Sits for Week 12 Lineups Include Tua Tagovailoa, J.K. Dobbins, Ladd McConkey

Week 11 was pretty kind to us in this space. We correctly labeled Justin Herbert as a boom pick. He threw for 297 yards and two touchdowns and ran for 65 yards on the ground. It culminated with a QB8 finish. We also nailed Kirk Cousins and Tony Pollard as busts. Cousins and the Falcons […]