X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Statcast Pitcher Risers/Fallers - Monthly xwOBA Splits (Week 10)

Welcome back to Rotoballer's series using Statcast to extrapolate, dig into, and commiserate over data to examine pitching performances. The weekly series will be dynamic as we fine-tune our findings and enlighten ourselves on the information and tools at our disposal.

All savvy fantasy players know that when we scour the trade block or waiver wire for pitchers, the season-long body of work becomes less important as the year progresses. When weighing transactions, owners don't want to make the mistake of overpaying for a guy that performed great in April but has since gone the way of Sidney Ponson. Sure, consistency is the name of the game, but market timing also is critical in assessing player value. We've turned the calendar to June and it's fair to start comparing periodic splits.

Way back in Week 5, we discussed the topic of wOBA and xwOBA to observe how the differences in the two metrics could help identify anomalies in pitching performance. As a reminder, wOBA measures the actual outcome of an at-bat while xwOBA determines the expected outcomes of that same at-bat based on Statcast information like exit velocity and launch angle. Since this is a Statcast series, let's focus on the latter. Today we'll compare the difference in xwOBA for starters between the months of April and May to categorize our risers and fallers.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball draft tools and resources:

 

Bound to Pop

All stats as of May 31 for pitchers that threw over 400 pitches in both April (125 total) and May (122).

Caleb Smith, Miami Marlins (4-5, 3.51 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 11.02 K/9)

Few people outside of Miami knew of Caleb Smith entering 2018. Come to think of it, most Miamians probably didn't know about him either. Smith had a forgettable start to the season, ending April with a 4.40 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. His xwOBA was a pedestrian .318. In May, that xwOBA improved to .284 which was good for 17th-best in the majors. The results were excellent, Smith posted a 2.60 ERA and 1.05 WHIP for the month.

So what changed? His pitch velocity and movements look the same month-to-month and he still relies on three pitches. The difference might be deception and pitching to soft contact. In April, Smith registered a 12.7 K/9 by emphasizing his fastball-slider. Strikeouts are fine, but they were paired with ugly, unusable ratios. In May, he peeled back the power pitches and threw his changeup more often. The K/9 declined to 9.1, but his opponent slugging percentage dropped significantly. By upping the changeup usage to only 15%, Smith increased the pitch values for his entire arsenal.

With current trends, the K/9 outlook for Smith may drop to about one per inning. Fantasy owners will gladly take that for the existing 3.21 FIP the rest of the way. The .260 BABIP is probably too low and he has control problems (4.2 BB/9), but if Smith continues keeping hitters off balanced, the fly ball-heavy pitcher (48.9% FB%) should keep reaping the rewards of spacious Marlins Park.

Tanner Roark, Washington Nationals (2-5, 3.38 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 7.63 K/9)

Not sure I've ever pounded the table on Tanner Roark. So this is weird. But recency bias aside, Roark has been solid through his career (3.41 ERA, 1.18 WHIP). The guy deserves his fair shake. Roark improved from an unflattering .343 xwOBA in April to the 20th-lowest .288 in May. The headline returns for Roark were actually better in April, so the conclusion is he could presently be experiencing better aggregate numbers.

Roark is a five-pitch guru and has always enjoyed positive pitch values across the board. He started the year throwing more power pitches, and has since tapered that to focus on more changeups and curveballs. The results are higher whiff percentages for his primary fastball (8.3% to 11.7%) and sinker (3.1% to 7.1%). Both pitches also saw drops in opponent slugging, most notably in the fastball from .400 to .048. Make no mistake, Roark still greatly depends on his fastball-sinker (54.3% combined), but he's done an excellent job sprinkling in secondary pitches.

Roark's .241 BABIP certainly suggests batted-balls will drop more frequently. But if he holds them to singles (21.2% Soft%), he may yet avoid the dreaded blowup innings. His lack of strikeouts makes him a very unsexy fantasy starter and results in an unremarkable K/BB (2.5), but Roark's proven himself a reliable asset. Taking advantage on his meh profile could be a great opportunity for owners to pocket a steady weekly starter.

Other possible risers: James Paxton (SEA, .321 April xwOBA vs. .275 May xwOBA), Vince Velasquez (PHI, .304/.251), Luis Castillo (CIN, .392/.298)

 

Due to Drop

Rick Porcello, Boston Red Sox (7-2, 3.65 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 8.51 K/9)

We touched on Rick Porcello in Week 4, who at the time held a sparkling 1.40 ERA and 0.82 WHIP. My bear argument against him was that his exit velocity was materially lower than the EV during his 2016 Cy Young campaign. Porcello believers could've countered with his .246 April xwOBA. That measure spiked up to .340 in May to accompany an awful 5.35 ERA and 1.49 month.

Unfortunately, we're not here to bask in glory. But the previous fortunes of his LD%, HR/FB and LOB% have evaporated. For his part, and reasons unbeknownst to me, Porcello has dialed back his sinker usage and is leaning more on a curveball, effectively trading a pitch he's been historically good at for one he's struggled with. Hmm. Not surprisingly, the change in pitch approach has led to higher opponent slugging for every one of his pitches. In May, Porcello's four-seamer is surrendering a 46.2% LD% and .348 ISO. If his adjustments after April were intentional, it might be back to the drawing board.

Porcello's name brand and early-season triumphs may buoy his marketplace value. The seven wins on a powerhouse Red Sox team also helps. But Porcello has settled into an eerily similar resume as 2017's disappointing season. Porcello is worth shopping to owners in need of wins, or any BoSox loyalists turning a blind eye to his melting peripherals.

Alex Wood, Los Angeles Dodgers (1-4, 3.75 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 8.37 K/9)

Alex Wood has suffered a more precipitous drop in xwOBA than Porcello. His excellent .248 April xwOBA turned into the league's 85th-worst .349 in May. Unlike Porcello, Wood's May returns were decent (3.29 ERA, 1.24 WHIP), masking the Statcast voice of reason. Wood's 2018 3.20 FIP is actually superior to last year's breakout season (3.32).

Wood is an odd pitcher that has no traditional four-seam fastball, exclusively using a sinker, slider and changeup. As the season's gone on, Wood's increased his sinker usage from 39% to 49%. Velocity-wise, it's remained constant but he's lost some horizontal break. The ISO on the pitch has increased from .194 to .209, modest but possibly meaningful. What is noteworthy to point out is the changeup that he's cut back from 34% to 27% has experienced massive deterioration, experiencing a BAA of .406 and opponent slugging of .625. Either he's lost confidence in the pitch, or a mechanical change has resulted in that pitch becoming a meatball.

We're not arguing that Wood is in for an imminent collapse. But for a guy without a fastball, a worthless changeup can reduce him into a two-pitch pony real quickly. He has the pedigree and recent success to figure things out, but it personally seems difficult to trust. We'll see as the season unfolds, but recognizing the mismatch between his May numbers and xwOBA, Wood is not a desirable roster piece.

Other possible fallers: Gerrit Cole (HOU, .247 April xwOBA vs. .291 May xwOBA), Sean Manaea (OAK, .287/.431), Lance McCullers Jr. (HOU, .280/.345)

 

More Sabermetrics & Fantasy Baseball Strategy




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

NASCAR1 hour ago

Bubba Wallace Wrecked at Las Vegas, but Showed Promising Speed
Alex Bowman1 hour ago

Recovered From Loose Wheel to Finish Seventh
Austin Cindric1 hour ago

Won Stage 1, but Loose Wheel Foiled Victory Bid
William Byron1 hour ago

Lost Las Vegas Race on Strategy, but Still Expanded Points Lead
Ryan Preece1 hour ago

Earned Best Career Non-Drafting Oval Finish at Las Vegas
Mookie Betts6 hours ago

Won't Play In Tokyo Series Against Cubs
Tee Higgins6 hours ago

Becomes Highest-Paid WR2 In NFL History
Ja'Marr Chase6 hours ago

Bengals Make Ja'Marr Chase The Highest-Paid Non-QB In NFL History
Brandin Podziemski7 hours ago

On Track To Return Tuesday
Christian Braun7 hours ago

Tagged As Probable On Injury Report
Aaron Gordon7 hours ago

Listed As Questionable For Monday
Jamal Murray7 hours ago

Iffy For Monday
Nikola Jokić7 hours ago

Nikola Jokic May Sit Out Meeting With Warriors
Quinten Post7 hours ago

Uncertain For Monday
Stephen Curry8 hours ago

Questionable To Play On Monday
Vince Williams Jr.9 hours ago

Returning On Monday
Coby White9 hours ago

Tagged As Probable For Monday
Josh Giddey9 hours ago

Doubtful For Monday
Gary Trent Jr.9 hours ago

Cleared For Sunday
Scotty Pippen Jr.9 hours ago

Listed As Questionable For Monday
Ja Morant9 hours ago

Won't Play Monday
Aaron Nesmith10 hours ago

Questionable Versus Minnesota
Tyrese Haliburton10 hours ago

On The Injury Report For Monday Night
Michael Tonkin10 hours ago

Will Open Season On Injured List
Aaron Wiggins10 hours ago

Returns To Action Against Bucks
Michel Otañez10 hours ago

Michel Otanez Shut Down From Throwing
Myles Turner10 hours ago

Questionable Against Minnesota
Kyle Kuzma10 hours ago

Ready To Play Sunday
Pascal Siakam10 hours ago

Won't Play On Monday
Damian Lillard10 hours ago

Good To Go Sunday
Giannis Antetokounmpo10 hours ago

Available Against OKC
Brandon Marsh10 hours ago

Exits Early Sunday
Royce Lewis10 hours ago

Expected To Begin 2025 On Injured List
Miami Dolphins10 hours ago

Ryan Stonehouse Signs With Dolphins
Sam Darnold11 hours ago

Could Opt Out After One Season
Mark Andrews11 hours ago

Unlikely To Be Cut
Igor Shesterkin12 hours ago

Remains In Rangers Crease Sunday
John Gibson12 hours ago

Still Out On Sunday
Nick Bjugstad12 hours ago

Returns For Utah Sunday
Filip Chytil12 hours ago

Questionable For Sunday
Jiri Kulich12 hours ago

In Concussion Protocol
Adam Pelech13 hours ago

Out On Sunday
Zach Hyman13 hours ago

A Game-Time Call Sunday
Bailey Falter13 hours ago

Ready To Go For Monday
Yu Darvish13 hours ago

Dealing With Fatigue
Clarke Schmidt13 hours ago

Won't Start On Monday
Mark Leiter Jr.13 hours ago

Should Be Ready For Opening Day
David Bednar13 hours ago

Not Officially Named Closer
Yoán Moncada14 hours ago

Yoan Moncada Could Land On Injured List
Atlanta Falcons14 hours ago

Keith Taylor Signs With Falcons
Atlanta Falcons14 hours ago

Storm Norton Back With Atlanta
Ronnie Rivers15 hours ago

Re-Ups With Rams
Mason Adams15 hours ago

Diagnosed With Flexor Strain
Joey Gallo15 hours ago

White Sox Release Joey Gallo
Sean Burke15 hours ago

Named Opening Day Starter
Jung Hoo Lee16 hours ago

Expected To Remain Sidelined For A Few Days
Max Kepler16 hours ago

Exits Early On Sunday After Collision
Eiberson Castellano16 hours ago

Could Win Bullpen Job
Kyle Freeland16 hours ago

Rockies Name Kyle Freeland Their Starter For Opening Day
Royce Lewis16 hours ago

Exits Early On Sunday
Ramón Urías16 hours ago

Ramon Urias Expected To Return On Thursday
Emmanuel Rivera16 hours ago

Dealing With Sore Shoulder
New York Jets17 hours ago

Derrick Nnadi Signing With Jets
Washington Commanders17 hours ago

Eddie Goldman Joins Commanders On One-Year Deal
Cooper Rush18 hours ago

Agrees On Two-Year Deal With Ravens
Baltimore Ravens20 hours ago

Ben Cleveland Remaining With Ravens
Seattle Seahawks20 hours ago

Shemar Jean-Charles Signing With Seahawks
Velus Jones Jr.20 hours ago

Signs With Saints
Christopher Bell21 hours ago

Quest For Four Wins In A Row Just Got More Difficult
Kyle Larson22 hours ago

Should Contend For Another Win At Las Vegas
Ryan Blaney22 hours ago

Once Again The Chalk DFS Pick At Las Vegas
Ross Chastain22 hours ago

Fastest In Practice At Las Vegas
Chris Buescher22 hours ago

Has Sneaky Upside This Weekend
Quinton Byfield22 hours ago

Scores In Sixth Straight Contest
Chase Elliott22 hours ago

May Be A Sneaky DFS Option For Las Vegas Lineups
Artemi Panarin22 hours ago

Extends Point Streak To Eight Games
Pyotr Kochetkov23 hours ago

Shuts The Door On Flyers On Saturday
William Byron23 hours ago

Expect William Byron To Compete For The Win At Las Vegas
Tyler Reddick23 hours ago

Is One Of The Top DFS Options For Las Vegas
Anthony Cirelli23 hours ago

Strikes Twice On Saturday
Denny Hamlin23 hours ago

Could Denny Hamlin Be A Quality Driver For DFS At Las Vegas?
Alex Ovechkin23 hours ago

Scores Goal, Adds Assist In Victory
Connor Dewar23 hours ago

Scores Twice On Saturday
NASCAR23 hours ago

Bubba Wallace Could Be A Solid DFS Option For Las Vegas
Brad Keselowski23 hours ago

Qualifies Deep In The Field For Las Vegas
Erik Jones23 hours ago

Is Erik Jones Worth Rostering At Las Vegas This Week?
Daniel Suarez23 hours ago

Should Fantasy Managers Roster Daniel Suarez At Las Vegas?
Carson Hocevar23 hours ago

Showcases Speed And Can Be Worth Rostering At Las Vegas
Ryan Preece24 hours ago

Is Ryan Preece A DFS Fade For Las Vegas Lineups?
Joey Logano1 day ago

Likely To Lead At Las Vegas, But Will He Lead Enough For DFS Consideration?
Jordan Mason1 day ago

Vikings Acquire Jordan Mason From 49ers, Sign Him To Two-Year Deal
Dee Eskridge1 day ago

Sticking With Dolphins
JuJu Smith-Schuster1 day ago

Returning To Chiefs
Tennessee Titans1 day ago

Chidobe Awuzie Released By Titans
Parris Campbell1 day ago

Headed To Dallas
Jiri Kulich1 day ago

Sustains An Upper-Body Injury Saturday
Tyler Myers1 day ago

Set To Return Against Blackhawks
Nikita Kucherov1 day ago

Good To Go Against Bruins
Yegor Chinakhov1 day ago

Rejoins Blue Jackets Lineup Saturday
Joel Armia1 day ago

Expected To Return On Saturday
Brady Tkachuk1 day ago

Available Saturday
Adam Fox1 day ago

Ready To Rejoin Rangers Lineup
Philadelphia Eagles2 days ago

Patrick Johnson Rejoins Philadelphia
Los Angeles Rams2 days ago

Larrell Murchison Back With The Rams
Eeli Tolvanen2 days ago

Scores Twice In Victory
Roman Dolidze3 days ago

Set For A Rematch
Marvin Vettori3 days ago

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Chidi Njokuani3 days ago

Looks For His Third Win In A Row
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos3 days ago

Looks For His 12th UFC Win
Kurt Holobaugh3 days ago

An Underdog At UFC Vegas 104
Alexander Hernandez3 days ago

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Cody Gibson3 days ago

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Da'Mon Blackshear3 days ago

A Favorite At UFC Vegas 104
Brendson Ribeiro3 days ago

Searching For Second UFC Win On Saturday
Diyar Nurgozhay3 days ago

Set To Make His UFC Debut
MMA3 days ago

Seung Woo Choi In Dire Need Of Victory
Kevin Vallejos3 days ago

Makes Debut At UFC Vegas 104
Jacob Bridgeman5 days ago

Use Caution For Jacob Bridgeman At TPC Sawgrass
Nicolai Hojgaard5 days ago

Looks To Stay Consistent Heading Into PLAYERS Championship
Karl Vilips5 days ago

Makes PLAYERS Championship Debut After First PGA Tour Win
Taylor Pendrith5 days ago

A Sneaky Play At TPC Sawgrass
Sahith Theegala5 days ago

Out Of Form Ahead Of The PLAYERS Championship
Matt Fitzpatrick5 days ago

A Shaky Play Heading Into PLAYERS
Scottie Scheffler5 days ago

Eyeing Three-Peat At TPC Sawgrass
Aldrich Potgieter5 days ago

A Risky Play At TPC Sawgrass
Si Woo Kim5 days ago

Looks To Keep Building Momentum At The PLAYERS
Denny McCarthy5 days ago

Looks To Continue Solid Play At TPC Sawgrass
Collin Morikawa5 days ago

Poised For Another Strong Performance At TPC Sawgrass
Robert MacIntyre5 days ago

A Risky Play With Upside At The PLAYERS Championship
Jordan Spieth5 days ago

Looking To Change Fortunes At TPC Sawgrass
Cameron Young5 days ago

Avoid Cameron Young At The PLAYERS Championship
Michael Kim5 days ago

Continues Incredible Form Ahead Of The PLAYERS Championship
Justin Thomas5 days ago

Looking For More Magic At TPC Sawgrass
Xander Schauffele5 days ago

Continues Competitive Return At The Players Championship
Rory McIlroy5 days ago

Looks To Reverse Recent History At TPC Sawgrass
PGA5 days ago

Victor Hovland Looking To Find Form At The PLAYERS Championship
Brian Harman5 days ago

A Sleeper Pick At The PLAYERS Championship
Min Woo Lee5 days ago

A Hard Name To Trust At The Players Championship
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 
Albert Haynesworth - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Worst NFL Free Agent Signings Of All Time

With the free agency period for the 2025 NFL season now underway, many big-name players will find new homes as teams compete to sign anyone and everyone they think they need to help their squad. While many signings end up being good moves, or at least help their teams fill holes at certain positions on […]


Cole Kmet - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL injury News

Dynasty Fantasy Football Trade Targets and Avoids: Tight Ends to Buy or Sell (2025)

It's tough to find good tight ends in dynasty fantasy football. Unfortunately, it's also very easy to be stuck with one that sticks around in the doldrums of low production. Such is the case for many TEs, and even those who have good seasons here and there often lack consistency year over year. It's not […]


D'Andre Swift - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injuries

Dynasty Fantasy Football Trade Targets and Avoids: Running Backs to Buy or Sell (2025)

Running back volume and production is highly mercurial in the NFL. It can thus be difficult to know when to trade away and when to trade for tailbacks. There is constant competition for roles in certain backfields, and red-herring situations are abound due to injuries and plain luck. While some RBs are certainly safe in […]


Josh Downs - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News Updates

2025 Fantasy Football Sleepers: Third-Year Breakouts

Patience can be tough, especially in fantasy football. We want instant production from rookies, but these players often take a while to get going. These youngsters need to adjust to the speed of the NFL and learn from their early struggles to break out fully. The third year in the NFL is oftentimes when things […]


Justin Fields - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

NFL Free Agency Winners and Losers - Fantasy Football Outlooks from Florio

Free Agency is the most fun week of the NFL offseason. Even when it is not the strongest class, there is never a shortage of excitement. Players changing teams at a rapid rate. It is a week filled with hope that your favorite team will add stars and that those under-the-radar players you love will […]


Josh Downs - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News Updates

Josh Downs Fantasy Football Dynasty Outlook (2025)

The 2025 NFL Draft is quickly approaching. For the last few months, dynasty fantasy football gamers have been meticulously studying the incoming rookie class to gain any edge they can on their league mates. While we should be anxiously awaiting our rookie drafts, we must also take time and analyze how veteran players are valued […]


Tyron Smith Top Landing Spots: 2025 NFL Free Agency Outlook

New York Jets and former long-time Dallas Cowboys offensive tackle Tyron Smith was one of the best offensive linemen in the NFL for an extended period of time. He's made five All-Pro teams, two with the first team and two with the second team, been selected to eight Pro Bowls, and earned a spot on […]


Bills Defense - Von Miller IDP Rankings, D/ST Streamers, Fantasy Football Team Defense

Von Miller Top Landing Spots: 2025 NFL Free Agency Outlook

Buffalo Bills linebacker Von Miller, one of the greatest pass-rushers in NFL history, was released by his team on March 9, 2025. He had signed a six-year, $120 million deal with the team in 2022, but the soon-to-be 36-year-old wasn't able to make it to the end of that contract, so he's now looking for […]


Aaron Jones - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Staying Put - Impact Players Re-signed: Aaron Jones, Zach Ertz, Jaylen Warren, more

NFL free agency is a frenzy. As football fans, we love to see the movement around the league. It allows us to dream about the possibility of our team signing a fresh player who could make a serious impact. However, one cannot overlook the impact of re-signing significant contributors. While it is not as exciting […]


Tucker Kraft - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Dynasty Fantasy Football Trade Targets: Wide Receivers and Tight Ends To Buy in 2025

My friend Josh used to make me listen to the Bring Me The Horizon song "Diamonds Aren't Forever," which begins with the line "We will never sleep, cause sleep is for the weak." That sentiment rings true in fantasy football dynasty leagues as well. You can't get complacent. You can't stop thinking about how to […]


Zay Flowers - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Dynasty Fantasy Football WR Buy or Sell: Zay Flowers, Rashee Rice, and Jordan Addison (2025)

The 2024 NFL Draft class had seven first-round wide receivers. Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers, and Rome Odunze were selected in the top 10. Meanwhile, Brian Thomas Jr., Xavier Worthy, Ricky Pearsall, and Xavier Legette were Day 1 selections. More importantly, Nabers and Thomas finished their rookie seasons as top-7 wide receivers in half-point PPR […]


Courtland Sutton - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Sleepers, Draft Targets: Early 2025 Analysis

One of the biggest factors in winning fantasy football teams is finding middle-to-late-round sleepers. With wide receivers typically carrying the most drafted players of any position, it makes sense that taking multiple stabs at the position in search of hitting multiple-round values is the way to set yourself apart in drafts. For 2025, the draft […]


Caleb Williams - Fantasy Football Rankings, QB, NFL Rookies, Draft Sleepers

2025 NFL Free Agency Frenzy: Biggest Winners and Disappointments at Every Fantasy Football Position

NFL franchises will have an opportunity to reshape their rosters before the draft. Fantasy managers will have a chance to read the tea leaves and make measured strikes against their fantasy football opposition ahead of rookie drafts. Savvy managers will use this period to try to get the best return on some previous investments, as […]