X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Statcast Pitcher Risers/Fallers - Fastball Quality (Week 12)

Welcome back to RotoBaller's series using Statcast to extrapolate, dig into, and commiserate over data to examine pitching performances. The weekly series will be dynamic as we fine-tune our findings and enlighten ourselves on the information and tools at our disposal.

Chicks dig the fastball. At least that's how this pitching-friendly column remembers the classic commercial. But seriously, fastballs are critical to a pitcher. Most rely on it for over 50% of their pitches. At worst it's a table-setter and at best it's a knockout punch. Since its efficacy is so important, fastballs likely impact the remaining pitch selection for a given plate appearance.

This week, we'll look at fastball effectiveness on two metrics, expected wOBA (xwOBA) and contact quality. The median fastball xwOBA for a pitcher is .367. For contact quality, the best pitchers like Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander and Jacob deGrom surrender well-hit fastballs at a 20-22% clip. The worst pitchers have a well-hit fastball rate north of 30%. Looking at these two criteria will determine our risers and fallers for Week 12.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and weekly lineup resources:

 

Bound to Pop

All stats as of June 18 for 112 pitchers that have thrown over 1000 pitches. Well-hit balls include all batted-ball results not classified as poor/weak by MLB.com.

Vince Velasquez, Philadelphia Phillies (5-7, 4.74 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 10.82 K/9)

Vince Velasquez made an early appearance in the Statcast series and he finds himself back in the discussion nine weeks later. He's given up well-hit fastballs at a solid 21.8% and his xwOBA of .306 is 17th-best. Prior to a 10-run implosion on June 8, Velasquez had pitched well in 6-of-7 outings. Dependability has been an issue, with seven quality starts mixed in with five clunkers through 14 starts.

Velasquez has leveraged his mid-90s fastball to generate a strong whiff percentage around 15%. More importantly, he's refined his slider to an excellent normalized pitch value of 1.43 and finally developed a coveted tertiary pitch, mixing in a useful changeup for the first time in his career. Velasquez has also upped his sinker usage from 4% in April to 17% in June. With a loaded arsenal in 2018, Velasquez has been able to peel back on the four-seamer, enhancing its overall effectiveness. Unfortunately, Velasquez has been reluctant to abandon his awful curveball (.900 opponent slugging in June), which he still serves up 19% of pitches.

Despite consistency being his Achilles heel, Velasquez is a worthwhile weekly streamer for the strikeouts and ongoing evolution of his repertoire. For what it's worth, he's significantly better away (2.79 ERA) than at home (6.88).

 

Tyler Mahle, Cincinnati Reds (5-6, 3.96 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 8.16 K/9)

Rookie Tyler Mahle has gradually improved as the season's progressed, riding a 1.10 ERA and 1.22 WHIP through three June starts. Mahle ranks just behind Velasquez with a .312 xwOBA, giving up well-hit contact on 22.0% of heaters.

Mahle is a straightforward three-pitch pony, utilizing his fastball on 68% of pitches. It's also been his strongest pitch, with a sub-.300 BAA and a whiff percentage of 11%. Mahle's chief improvement in June has been his slider. In April, batters were whiffing, but they also clocked a healthy .308 ISO off the pitch. Mahle's flipped the script in June, pitching to contact with much better results (.000 ISO).

Mahle's endured his share of speedbumps in 2018. A 41.6% Hard%, 2.43 K/BB and 4.73 FIP confirm his downside. But he appears to be making the right adjustments throughout the season with encouraging results. Minimally owned, Mahle's worth a test drive over his next handful of starts. If he keeps capitalizing on the fastball and maintains his slider touch, his fantasy value could be upgraded for longer term.

Other possible risers: Ross Stripling (LAD, .260 fastball xwOBA), Eduardo Rodriguez (BOS, .285), Miles Mikolas (STL, .304)

 

Due to Drop

Zack Godley, Arizona Diamondbacks (7-5, 4.77 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, 9.08 K/9)

The first fantasy relevant player with a poor fastball xwOBA is Zack Godley in ninth-worst position (.432), ceding well-hit fastballs at 29.2%. However, unlike most pitchers, Godley isn't heavily reliant on a fastball, using his cutter just 23% of pitches. While not having a traditional four-seamer isn't a problem outright, it is when your substitute is alarmingly losing velocity.

Godley entered the league with a cutter hovering around 91-92 MPH. This season, it's plummeted to 88.8 MPH. The deceleration may not seem material on the surface, but line drives on his cutter have increased from 28% to 34% year-over-year. Opponent slugging has lingered above .429 all season, with an unsightly .643 in June.

Godley hasn't been good in 2018, but his ownership remains stubbornly high. He does have strikeout appeal, and his BABIP (.318) and LOB% (71.3%) suggest some fortunes may turn his way. But his batted-ball metrics are not encouraging, and for someone that can barely touch 90 MPH on the radar gun, selling at a discount appears wiser than holding and hoping.

 

Dylan Bundy, Baltimore Orioles (5-7, 3.81 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 10.04 K/9)

Dylan Bundy, on the other hand, loves his heater. He's increased its usage from the low-40% in April to 56% in June. His returns in June have been marvelous through three starts (1.71 ERA, 0.86 ERA), but that doesn't diminish the fact that his fastball suffers from the 10th-worst xwOBA (.430) and a 34.5% well-hit rate.

Bundy is currently on a career-best strikeout pace, but it's not from the fastball. His four-seamer is generating a whiff percentage below 10% and the punch outs are mostly coming from his slider and changeup. Then why the focus on the heater? Possibly because despite the strikeouts, the only pitch that grades positively for Bundy is his slider. While he generates swings-and-misses for the changeup, it's mashed upon contact.

It makes sense for Bundy to use the fastball to setup his knockout slider, but overemphasizing it seems counterintuitive. We lowlighted his unflattering off-speed pitch, but results from the heater aren't much better (30% LD%, .450 SLG). With his strikeouts down in June (7.29 K/9), the fastball proportion is arguably to blame. Whether the pitch selection is intentional, mechanical or psychological, Bundy's spectacular June doesn't appear supported by strong fundamentals.

Other possible fallers: Jake Junis (KC, .451 fastball xwOBA), Aaron Sanchez (TOR, .427), Luis Castillo (CIN, .426)

 

More Sabermetrics & Fantasy Baseball Strategy




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Jordan Clarkson5 hours ago

Out At Least A Week
Kyle Kuzma5 hours ago

Out Again On Saturday
Jamal Murray5 hours ago

Won't Return On Friday Night
Giannis Antetokounmpo5 hours ago

Anticipated To Play Versus Cleveland
Puka Nacua7 hours ago

Shot To Play Week 9
Jordan Love7 hours ago

Tracking To Play In Week 9
Stephen Curry10 hours ago

Unavailable Saturday
Yves Missi10 hours ago

Expected To Take The Court Friday
Karl-Anthony Towns10 hours ago

Available On Friday
Eric Comrie10 hours ago

Faces Blue Jackets Friday
Daniel Theis10 hours ago

Likely To Suit Up Friday
David Savard10 hours ago

Sits Out Practice For Maintenance Purposes
De'Anthony Melton10 hours ago

Unavailable Saturday
Jordan Hawkins10 hours ago

Expected To Play Friday
Alexander Romanov10 hours ago

Ready To Play Friday
Al Horford10 hours ago

Resting Against Charlotte
Evgeni Malkin10 hours ago

Takes Maintenance Day On Friday
Andrew Wiggins10 hours ago

Probable For Saturday's Matchup With Houston
Rose Namajunas10 hours ago

An Underdog At UFC Edmonton
D'Angelo Russell10 hours ago

Will Suit Up Versus Toronto
Devon Levi10 hours ago

Returns To Sabres Crease
Clayton Kershaw10 hours ago

To Undergo Two Surgeries
Anthony Davis10 hours ago

Available Against Toronto
Erin Blanchfield10 hours ago

Returns At UFC Edmonton
Brandon Lowe10 hours ago

Rays Pick Up Club Option On Brandon Lowe
Ryan Hartman10 hours ago

Rejoins Wild Lineup Friday
Zach LaVine10 hours ago

Will Play Against Brooklyn
10 hours ago

Nick Martinez Headed To Free Agency
Erik Cernak10 hours ago

Available On Friday
Marc-Andre Barriault10 hours ago

Dustin Stoltzfus Set To Face Marc-Andre Barriault At UFC Edmonton
Brent Suter11 hours ago

Inks Extension With Cincinnati
Immanuel Quickley11 hours ago

Out Again On Friday Night
CJ McCollum11 hours ago

Out At Least Two Weeks
11 hours ago

Yankees, Mets Among Teams In Battle For Juan Soto
Anthony Black11 hours ago

Starting Versus Cleveland
Franz Wagner11 hours ago

Cleared For Friday Night
Herbert Jones11 hours ago

To Miss A Significant Amount Of Time With Shoulder Injury
Marc-Andre Barriault11 hours ago

A Favorite At UFC Edmonton
Blake Snell11 hours ago

Opts Out Of Deal With San Francisco
Desmond Bane11 hours ago

Won't Face The 76ers
Josh Jacobs12 hours ago

Questionable For Sunday
Drake Maye12 hours ago

Questionable For Week 9
Tyler Boyd12 hours ago

Tony Pollard, Tyler Boyd Listed As Questionable
Tyjae Spears12 hours ago

Ruled Out For Week 9
Calvin Ridley12 hours ago

Off The Injury Report
Trevin Giles12 hours ago

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Noah Fant12 hours ago

Ruled Out For Week 9
Brian Robinson Jr.12 hours ago

Questionable For Week 9
Mike Malott12 hours ago

Opens Up UFC Edmonton Main Card
Dallas Goedert12 hours ago

Ruled Out For Week 9
DK Metcalf13 hours ago

Ruled Out For Week 9
Zach Benson13 hours ago

Could Play Next Week
Jani Hakanpaa13 hours ago

And Connor Dewar Sent On Conditioning Stint
Dmitri Voronkov13 hours ago

Ready For Season Debut Friday
Jordan Love13 hours ago

Questionable Vs. Lions
Mathew Barzal13 hours ago

Getting Tests Done For Upper-Body Injury
Vladimir Tarasenko13 hours ago

Ready To Go For Saturday
Mark Stone13 hours ago

Misses Practice Due To Birth Of Child
Puka Nacua14 hours ago

Listed As Questionable For Week 9
Will Levis15 hours ago

Questionable For Week 9
David Njoku15 hours ago

Good To Go For Week 9
Bucky Irving15 hours ago

Absent During Friday's Practice
David Njoku15 hours ago

Returns To Practice On Friday
Adam Thielen15 hours ago

Doubtful For Week 9
Jonathon Brooks15 hours ago

Not Expected To Play In Week 9
Tee Higgins16 hours ago

Listed As Doubtful For Sunday
Tyreek Hill16 hours ago

Expected To Play In Week 9
Tomás Nosek19 hours ago

Tomas Nosek Ready For Panthers Debut On Friday
Leon Draisaitl19 hours ago

Leads Oilers To Victory With Three-Point Effort
Martin Necas19 hours ago

Registers Four Points In Dominant Win
Alex Ovechkin19 hours ago

Bags Three Points In Thursday's Win
19 hours ago

Royals Decline Option On Adam Frazier
Sidney Crosby19 hours ago

Drags Penguins Back On Track
19 hours ago

Manuel Margot, Kyle Farmer Headed To Free Agency
William Nylander19 hours ago

Pots Two Goals Versus Seattle
19 hours ago

Milwaukee Declines Option On Wade Miley
NHL19 hours ago

Will Smith Scores First Career Goals
Lucas Giolito19 hours ago

Staying In Boston
Chris Stratton20 hours ago

Hunter Renfroe, Chris Stratton Returning To Kansas City
Jordan Montgomery20 hours ago

Staying In Arizona
1 day ago

Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn Headed For Free Agency
Roansy Contreras1 day ago

Claimed By Texas
1 day ago

Alex Kirilloff Announces Retirement
Jorge Soler1 day ago

Traded To Los Angeles
Curtis Lazar1 day ago

Out Indefinitely Following Knee Procedure
Brendson Ribeiro1 day ago

Searching For 1st UFC Win At UFC Edmonton
Caio Machado1 day ago

Drops Down To Light Heavyweight At UFC Edmonton
Jhonata Diniz1 day ago

Gets Big Step-Up At UFC Edmonton
Derrick Lewis1 day ago

Faces An Unranked Heavyweight At UFC Edmonton
Amir Albazi1 day ago

An Underdog At UFC Edmonton
Brandon Moreno1 day ago

Ends Layoff At UFC Edmonton
2 days ago

Daniel Hudson Retires After World Series Victory
Freddie Freeman2 days ago

Drives In Two More Runs, Earns World Series MVP Honors
Chase Elliott4 days ago

Comes Up Short at Homestead
William Byron4 days ago

Rallies to Sixth at Homestead
Kyle Larson4 days ago

Tire Issue at Homestead Could Doom Kyle Larson's Championship Hopes
Tyler Reddick5 days ago

Charges To A Thrilling Victory At Homestead
Ryan Blaney5 days ago

Loses At Homestead On The Final Corner To Tyler Reddick
Christopher Bell5 days ago

Quietly Nabs A Top-5 Finish At Homestead
Khamzat Chimaev5 days ago

Remains Undefeated
Robert Whittaker5 days ago

Gets Submitted At UFC 308
Aleksandar Rakic5 days ago

Drops Decision At UFC 308
Armen Petrosyan5 days ago

Knocked Out At UFC 308
Shara Magomedov5 days ago

Gets Highlight-Reel Knockout Win At UFC 308
Joey Logano5 days ago

Intentionally Sleepwalked Through Homestead to Focus on Phoenix
Denny Hamlin5 days ago

Advances to Championship 4 as Owner but Not as Driver
Dan Ige5 days ago

Loses Second-Straight Fight At UFC 308
Lerone Murphy5 days ago

Remains Undefeated At UFC 308
Magomed Ankalaev5 days ago

Wins Lackluster Decision Win At UFC 308
Max Holloway5 days ago

Gets Knocked Out For First Time At UFC 308
NASCAR6 days ago

Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. Earns Best Qualifying Run in Over a Year at Homestead
Zane Smith6 days ago

Expect Zane Smith's Steady Consistency to Continue at Homestead
Ryan Preece6 days ago

Both Ryan Preece and Stewart-Haas Racing Seem Ill-Suited to Intermediates
Michael McDowell6 days ago

Couldn't Overcome Ford's Intermediate Speed Deficit in Homestead Qualifying
Joey Logano6 days ago

Team Likely to Ignore Homestead to Focus on Phoenix
Carson Hocevar6 days ago

Looks to Clinch Rookie of the Year Award
Daniel Hemric6 days ago

Qualifies Ninth for Best Start of the Year
Denny Hamlin6 days ago

Is Strong at Homestead, but Sometimes Struggles in the Clutch
Justin Haley6 days ago

Benefits in Qualifying From Spire Motorsports Speed
Austin Cindric6 days ago

Slowest Ford Regular in Homestead Qualifying
Chris Buescher6 days ago

Lacks Intermediate Track Consistency
Josh Berry6 days ago

Hopes to Stay Alive in Rookie Race at Homestead

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP