X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Statcast Pitcher Risers/Fallers - Early-Inning SLG (Week 7)

Welcome back to Rotoballer's series using Statcast to extrapolate, dig into, and commiserate over data to examine pitching performances. The weekly series will be dynamic as we fine-tune our findings and enlighten ourselves on the information and tools at our disposal.

One of fantasy baseball's most gut-wrenching feelings is tuning into your pitcher starts only to see them quickly unravel early on. Dylan Bundy and Jacob deGrom are two recent headaches that come to mind. Early-inning blowups dig your ratios in a deep hole and also inflate pitch counts, reducing pitcher longevity and strikeout potential. Studies citing the Elias Sports Bureau noted that from 2000-2009, teams that scored first won around 65% of their games. In other words, when your pitcher implodes the first time around the order, the chances of a win or quality start likely goes in the dumpster.

For Week 7, we'll look at opponent slugging percentage (SLG) in the first three innings for a pitcher and compare it with SLG for the remainder of the outing. Our argument proposes that pitchers with a low SLG early in games should enjoy continued or better fantasy success across a full season. Likewise, if your starters are experiencing major problems with early-inning drama, it might be worth reconsidering their place in your roster. For reference, the median SLG for the first three innings of our qualified pitcher pool is .381. From the fourth inning onwards, the median SLG jumps to .414.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and weekly lineup resources:

 

Early-Inning Cruisers

All stats as of May 15 for 128 qualified pitchers that have thrown over 500 pitches

Justin Verlander, Houston Astros (4-2, 1.21 ERA, 0.72 WHIP, 11.61 K/9)

Justin Verlander has been one of the best pitchers in both realms of baseball this season, so it shouldn't surprise anyone that he holds the third-lowest opponent SLG of .191 in the first three innings. Verlander's ability to breeze through a lineup the first time around has allowed him to go six-plus innings and tally quality starts in eight of nine outings. His career best strikeout pace and excellent 5.92 K/BB has resulted in an extraordinary 89.1% LOB%.

What makes Verlander more tough is his SLG climbs to just .302 after the third inning, which is 15th-best in the majors. His velocity this season is stable year-on-year and the pitch values for his three primary pitches all grade very favorably. Despite a depressed .206 BABIP and the aforementioned elevated LOB%, Verlander's 2.24 FIP suggests he's really been that good.

Obviously Verlander is universally owned in fantasy leagues, but he should continue to be viewed as a top-5 pitcher. Jealous owners eager for his services should expect to pay top dollar in the trade market. Verlander owners looking to improve in other categories should demand top-tier assets in return. The SLG data supports Verlander's durability to eat up innings, rack up strikeouts and return elite ratios for the remainder of the season.

Patrick Corbin, Arizona Diamondbacks (4-1, 2.53 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 11.84 K/9)

Like Verlander, Patrick Corbin has also been exceptional. He's ridden an MLB 11th-best .244 SLG in the first three innings to five quality starts in nine tries. He suffered his first hiccup on May 14 (6 IP, 4 ER), but is still easily on pace for the best season of his six-year career.

Corbin sees modest deterioration in his SLG profile after the third inning, but the .342 clip still puts him firmly in the top third of pitchers. The spike in SLG could explain why he's been pulled before completing six innings three times despite decent headline numbers. The strikeouts and pitch count restrictions could be other reasons. Either way, Corbin's ninth-best 2.72 FIP indicates the disparity between his splits are not alarming.

One anomaly with Corbin is a 39.8% Hard% that contradicts a .238 BABIP. His 16.7% HR/FB is also three points above his normal rates. These could be arguing points for managers looking for a discount on Corbin in trade negotiations. However, Corbin was a late-round steal for keen fantasy drafters in March and has probably returned near-full value. The peripherals support the sustainability of his performance, and it always feels great to play with house money.

Other strong starters: Jacob deGrom (NYM, .183 early-inning SLG), Tyson Ross (SD, .226), Kyle Gibson (MIN, .241)

 

Perilous Starters

Chris Archer, Tampa Bay Rays (2-3, 5.64 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 8.89 K/9)

No Chris Archer owners need a reminder of his disaster season, but that's just what I'll do. Archer has been a disaster. He's posted only three quality starts and has allowed four earned runs or more five times in nine outings. Unsurprisingly, his .550 early-inning SLG is the 11th-worst mark in baseball.

Archer tends to settle down after three innings, but his .412 SLG is still just league average. While his velocity seems fine and he exhibits good control (2.56 BB/9), he's getting hit early and often. A 41.9% Hard% has resulted in the league's seventh-highest BAA of .278. One theory is that Archer's pitched too frequently in the zone, which has led to his lowest strikeout rate and highest Z-Contact% (84.5%) since 2014.

Archer sympathizers could point to a .331 BABIP, but that figure is in-line with his .325 last season. A 4.30 FIP likely won't have many value/upside trade partners eager to deal. One serious red flag on Archer is a Hard% that's increased every season since 2013, defending the excessive opponent SLG. Unless he goes back to striking out hitters, his batted-ball characteristics and high contact rates imply batters will continue making him pay for mistakes. Archer's intrinsic value has been impaired and fantasy owners should take that into account when assessing him in the marketplace.

Luis Castillo, Cincinnati Reds (3-4, 6.02 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 8.94 K/9)

There are probably two polar opposite takes on Luis Castillo, the drafters who tore their hair out to his 7.85 ERA in April and the savvy owners that bought low on said ERA and are now reaping the benefits. Objectively, Castillo was horrible in April and has recovered admirably through three May starts. Amidst the frenzy, he's held a .543 early-inning SLG which is 15th-highest in the majors.

In fairness, one April 27 outing magnifies Castillo's early-inning woes (1 IP, 5 ER), but a .449 SLG after the third inning is still bottom-half in the league. Castillo came out blazing last season with a 97.5 MPH average fastball in 15 starts, but that velocity has declined to 95.3 MPH this season. The fastball deceleration has weakened his supporting arsenal and lowered his pitch values across the board. Accordingly, his Hard% (37.9%) and HR/FB (22.2%) have risen sharply in 2018.

Castillo is just 25 years old so the learning curve could persist throughout the season. Owners could conceivably take advantage of his recent success for a steadier rotation arm. Unlike Archer, Castillo's potential is palatable so the trade market could provide room for opportunity. But unless he avoids being pounded early in games, his 4.93 FIP is certainly something fantasy players can do without.

Other poor starters: Kenta Maeda (LAD, .560 early-inning SLG), Chase Anderson (MIL, .500), J.A. Happ (.495)

 

More Sabermetrics & Fantasy Baseball Strategy




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Jordan Clarkson7 hours ago

Out At Least A Week
Kyle Kuzma7 hours ago

Out Again On Saturday
Jamal Murray7 hours ago

Won't Return On Friday Night
Giannis Antetokounmpo7 hours ago

Anticipated To Play Versus Cleveland
Puka Nacua8 hours ago

Shot To Play Week 9
Jordan Love9 hours ago

Tracking To Play In Week 9
Stephen Curry11 hours ago

Unavailable Saturday
Yves Missi11 hours ago

Expected To Take The Court Friday
Karl-Anthony Towns11 hours ago

Available On Friday
Eric Comrie12 hours ago

Faces Blue Jackets Friday
Daniel Theis12 hours ago

Likely To Suit Up Friday
David Savard12 hours ago

Sits Out Practice For Maintenance Purposes
De'Anthony Melton12 hours ago

Unavailable Saturday
Jordan Hawkins12 hours ago

Expected To Play Friday
Alexander Romanov12 hours ago

Ready To Play Friday
Al Horford12 hours ago

Resting Against Charlotte
Evgeni Malkin12 hours ago

Takes Maintenance Day On Friday
Andrew Wiggins12 hours ago

Probable For Saturday's Matchup With Houston
Rose Namajunas12 hours ago

An Underdog At UFC Edmonton
D'Angelo Russell12 hours ago

Will Suit Up Versus Toronto
Devon Levi12 hours ago

Returns To Sabres Crease
Clayton Kershaw12 hours ago

To Undergo Two Surgeries
Anthony Davis12 hours ago

Available Against Toronto
Erin Blanchfield12 hours ago

Returns At UFC Edmonton
Brandon Lowe12 hours ago

Rays Pick Up Club Option On Brandon Lowe
Ryan Hartman12 hours ago

Rejoins Wild Lineup Friday
Zach LaVine12 hours ago

Will Play Against Brooklyn
12 hours ago

Nick Martinez Headed To Free Agency
Erik Cernak12 hours ago

Available On Friday
Marc-Andre Barriault12 hours ago

Dustin Stoltzfus Set To Face Marc-Andre Barriault At UFC Edmonton
Brent Suter12 hours ago

Inks Extension With Cincinnati
Immanuel Quickley12 hours ago

Out Again On Friday Night
CJ McCollum12 hours ago

Out At Least Two Weeks
13 hours ago

Yankees, Mets Among Teams In Battle For Juan Soto
Anthony Black13 hours ago

Starting Versus Cleveland
Franz Wagner13 hours ago

Cleared For Friday Night
Herbert Jones13 hours ago

To Miss A Significant Amount Of Time With Shoulder Injury
Marc-Andre Barriault13 hours ago

A Favorite At UFC Edmonton
Blake Snell13 hours ago

Opts Out Of Deal With San Francisco
Desmond Bane13 hours ago

Won't Face The 76ers
Josh Jacobs13 hours ago

Questionable For Sunday
Drake Maye14 hours ago

Questionable For Week 9
Tyler Boyd14 hours ago

Tony Pollard, Tyler Boyd Listed As Questionable
Tyjae Spears14 hours ago

Ruled Out For Week 9
Calvin Ridley14 hours ago

Off The Injury Report
Trevin Giles14 hours ago

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Noah Fant14 hours ago

Ruled Out For Week 9
Brian Robinson Jr.14 hours ago

Questionable For Week 9
Mike Malott14 hours ago

Opens Up UFC Edmonton Main Card
Dallas Goedert14 hours ago

Ruled Out For Week 9
DK Metcalf14 hours ago

Ruled Out For Week 9
Zach Benson15 hours ago

Could Play Next Week
Jani Hakanpaa15 hours ago

And Connor Dewar Sent On Conditioning Stint
Dmitri Voronkov15 hours ago

Ready For Season Debut Friday
Jordan Love15 hours ago

Questionable Vs. Lions
Mathew Barzal15 hours ago

Getting Tests Done For Upper-Body Injury
Vladimir Tarasenko15 hours ago

Ready To Go For Saturday
Mark Stone15 hours ago

Misses Practice Due To Birth Of Child
Puka Nacua16 hours ago

Listed As Questionable For Week 9
Will Levis17 hours ago

Questionable For Week 9
David Njoku17 hours ago

Good To Go For Week 9
Bucky Irving17 hours ago

Absent During Friday's Practice
David Njoku17 hours ago

Returns To Practice On Friday
Adam Thielen17 hours ago

Doubtful For Week 9
Jonathon Brooks17 hours ago

Not Expected To Play In Week 9
Tee Higgins17 hours ago

Listed As Doubtful For Sunday
Tyreek Hill18 hours ago

Expected To Play In Week 9
Tomás Nosek20 hours ago

Tomas Nosek Ready For Panthers Debut On Friday
Leon Draisaitl21 hours ago

Leads Oilers To Victory With Three-Point Effort
Martin Necas21 hours ago

Registers Four Points In Dominant Win
Alex Ovechkin21 hours ago

Bags Three Points In Thursday's Win
21 hours ago

Royals Decline Option On Adam Frazier
Sidney Crosby21 hours ago

Drags Penguins Back On Track
21 hours ago

Manuel Margot, Kyle Farmer Headed To Free Agency
William Nylander21 hours ago

Pots Two Goals Versus Seattle
21 hours ago

Milwaukee Declines Option On Wade Miley
NHL21 hours ago

Will Smith Scores First Career Goals
Lucas Giolito21 hours ago

Staying In Boston
Chris Stratton21 hours ago

Hunter Renfroe, Chris Stratton Returning To Kansas City
Jordan Montgomery22 hours ago

Staying In Arizona
1 day ago

Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn Headed For Free Agency
Roansy Contreras1 day ago

Claimed By Texas
1 day ago

Alex Kirilloff Announces Retirement
Jorge Soler1 day ago

Traded To Los Angeles
Curtis Lazar1 day ago

Out Indefinitely Following Knee Procedure
Brendson Ribeiro1 day ago

Searching For 1st UFC Win At UFC Edmonton
Caio Machado1 day ago

Drops Down To Light Heavyweight At UFC Edmonton
Jhonata Diniz1 day ago

Gets Big Step-Up At UFC Edmonton
Derrick Lewis1 day ago

Faces An Unranked Heavyweight At UFC Edmonton
Amir Albazi2 days ago

An Underdog At UFC Edmonton
Brandon Moreno2 days ago

Ends Layoff At UFC Edmonton
2 days ago

Daniel Hudson Retires After World Series Victory
Freddie Freeman2 days ago

Drives In Two More Runs, Earns World Series MVP Honors
Chase Elliott5 days ago

Comes Up Short at Homestead
William Byron5 days ago

Rallies to Sixth at Homestead
Kyle Larson5 days ago

Tire Issue at Homestead Could Doom Kyle Larson's Championship Hopes
Tyler Reddick5 days ago

Charges To A Thrilling Victory At Homestead
Ryan Blaney5 days ago

Loses At Homestead On The Final Corner To Tyler Reddick
Christopher Bell5 days ago

Quietly Nabs A Top-5 Finish At Homestead
Khamzat Chimaev5 days ago

Remains Undefeated
Robert Whittaker5 days ago

Gets Submitted At UFC 308
Aleksandar Rakic5 days ago

Drops Decision At UFC 308
Armen Petrosyan5 days ago

Knocked Out At UFC 308
Shara Magomedov5 days ago

Gets Highlight-Reel Knockout Win At UFC 308
Joey Logano5 days ago

Intentionally Sleepwalked Through Homestead to Focus on Phoenix
Denny Hamlin5 days ago

Advances to Championship 4 as Owner but Not as Driver
Dan Ige5 days ago

Loses Second-Straight Fight At UFC 308
Lerone Murphy5 days ago

Remains Undefeated At UFC 308
Magomed Ankalaev5 days ago

Wins Lackluster Decision Win At UFC 308
Max Holloway5 days ago

Gets Knocked Out For First Time At UFC 308

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 
Puka Nacua - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Fantasy Football WR Injury Reports: Week 9 Updates For Puka Nacua, DK Metcalf, Brian Thomas Jr., Tee Higgins, Amari Cooper

We've already run the gauntlet of wide receiver injuries, but NFL action never stops, and player ailments never stop piling up throughout the season. It's odd how brutal they've been to the WR position especially. We've seen a number of star wideouts go on injured reserve, some for the rest of the season. Chris Godwin, […]


Bryce Young - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

High-Upside Bench Stashes: Weekend Waiver Wire Adds for Week 9 Includes Jaylen Wright, Troy Franklin, Erick All Jr., and more

Mastering the waiver wire is a crucial skill that can lead you to a fantasy football championship. It's not just about strategically placing your FAAB budget on specific players but also about knowing when to stash players. This dual strategy keeps you engaged and focused on your ultimate goal of winning a fantasy championship. As […]


Lamar Jackson - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Fantasy Football Injury Updates for Week 9: Lamar Jackson, Puka Nacua, Tee Higgins, Jordan Love, Brian Thomas Jr.

The fantasy football gods don't care about your hopes and aspirations for your team. They dole out what they want when they please. It's common for players to get injuries in a sport that involves crashing into each other at high speeds and changing direction with extreme force. It's Week 9, which means some fantasy […]


Dallas Goedert - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Fantasy Football Injury Reports for Tight Ends: Week 9 - Updates for T.J. Hockenson, Dallas Goedert, Noah Fant, Will Dissly

It’s time to check in on the injuries to some of the tight ends around the National Football League. The volatility at this position has been a nightmare for fantasy managers this season, and injuries across the board haven’t helped.   Being up-to-date on NFL injury news can give you an edge over your league […]


Jalen Hurts - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

NFL Survivor Pool Picks: Week 9 Targets and Avoids (2024)

Welcome to our NFL Survivor Pool Picks for Week 9 of the 2024 NFL season! There are so many different pools, fantasy leagues, weekly bets, and futures bets that it's hard to decide what to do with these choices. But survivor pools are the oldest and simplest leagues out there. All you have to do […]


Chase Brown - Fantasy Football Rankings, Waiver Wire Pickups, Draft Sleepers

Week 9 DraftKings NFL DFS Picks - Main Slate (2024): Jalen Hurts, Chase Brown, Evan Engram, and more

After raiding my daughter's trick-or-treat bag leftovers, I'm battling a Halloween hangover. It's probably a similar feeling to what lots of DFS players were experiencing after last week's Main Slate, as injuries and muted outputs from several popular players were hallmarks of Week 8. That said, we're on to a Week 9 slate that features […]


Puka Nacua - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Fantasy Football Injury Reports For Week 9 (Friday Updates): Puka Nacua, DK Metcalf, Josh Jacobs, Jordan Love, more

We have now hit the halfway point of the NFL season, but over halfway for most fantasy football seasons. As has been the norm this season, there are plenty of injuries to top fantasy players at every position. Some remain out for the foreseeable future, some are potentially playing through injury, and some are returning […]


Jayden Daniels - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

NFL Pick'em Pool Picks (Week 9) - Targets, Avoids, Predictions for Pick'em Contests (2024)

Just two teams will be on a bye during Week 9, leaving a busy slate across the NFL. Injuries will once again impact the slate, as well as some teams making changes at quarterback. Each week of the NFL season, I’ll share my picks for each game and rank their selections for those who play […]


RotoBaller NFL Betting Picks Stock

2024 NFL Week 9 Betting Picks (Premium Content)

All other Premium Tools and Content can be accessed on the premium dashboard. To see ALL of Jamie's bets (and others from RotoBaller experts) then head over to the RotoBaller Discord. You'll find every bet and prop in the #NFL-BETTING-PROPS channel there!   Background My name is Jamie Calandro (@jac3600 on X) and I have […]


AJ Brown - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

NFL DFS: FanDuel Daily Fantasy Football Picks for Week 9 - Top Lineup Plays Include Bijan Robinson, A.J. Brown, T.J. Hockenson

Like a backup quarterback patiently holding the clipboard with his hat on backward, I've been summoned into action to help give you some helpful NFL DFS advice for Week 9. My good friend Dennis Clausen, who usually pens this piece, asked me to help him out this week. Don't worry - Dennis is fine, other […]


Zay Flowers - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Week 9 Fantasy Football Busts? Players Who May Disappoint Include Josh Jacobs, Zay Flowers, Tank Bigsby, Rachaad White, Nick Chubb, Bucky Irving

Welcome to Week 9, the midway point of the 2024 fantasy football season. It's arrived quickly for most, but there's still plenty of season left! Injuries to wide receivers have left a sour taste in the mouths of fantasy managers, therefore propping up running backs. However, some running backs may have a rough week while […]


Michael Pittman Jr. - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

WR/CB Matchups to Upgrade and Downgrade - Fantasy Football Week 9 (2024)

Welcome back to our WR/CB Matchups for Week 9 of the 2024 fantasy football season. For those unfamiliar, this weekly series looks at fantasy football matchups for wide receivers versus the cornerbacks who are projected to cover them. The data we access for offensive and defensive players continues to skyrocket. Though we mainly focus on offensive […]


Bijan Robinson - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Rookies, Draft Sleepers

Fantasy Football Start 'Em, Sit 'Em - Week 9 Matchups Analysis

Welcome back, RotoBallers, to another start'em and sit'em piece as we look ahead to Week 9! With the Pittsburgh Steelers and San Francisco 49ers on bye this week, fantasy managers will have to replace George Pickens, Najee Harris, Deebo Samuel Sr., and George Kittle in their lineups. This Week 9 matchups analysis and Start 'Em, Sit 'Em piece will help you make the right lineup decisions […]