X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Statcast Hitter Risers/Fallers - xBA-BA (Week 15)

Expected stats, such as xBA, xSLG, xwOBA and others we have examined in this series have to be taken for what they are - a projection based on past data, but not the sole basis of fantasy analysis. If expected stats always jived with actual stats, we wouldn't have so many discrepancies. As of today, there are exactly four players with at least 50 plate appearances this season whose expected batting average matches their actual average. Most of the other 424 players on that list will never see those numbers line up precisely, but there is definitely a good chance that they will experience regression, either positive or negative. For that reason, we'll try to identify some BA risers and fallers for the second half of the season.

Many fantasy baseball owners are starting to see the value of MLB's Statcast advanced stats in order to help identify potential risers and sleepers. Just as we've done for pitchers, this weekly series will examine a handful of hitters who are performing surprisingly well or poorly according to sabermetrics.

Each week, we'll take a look at some key Statcast offensive metrics in order to assess risers and fallers. This time, we'll look at xBA and compare it with each players' actual average. xBA is defined according to launch angle and exit velocity, so the idea is to eliminate defense from the equation. Perhaps these players can see their luck turn around for the remainder of the season.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and weekly lineup resources:

 

Surprising Chart Toppers

All stats current as of July 9, 2018 and display leaders among hitters with at least 50 PA

Many of the overachievers in terms of xBA are speedy players who regularly post low exit velocity and launch angle numbers, but manage to leg out infield hits or make their living on ground ball base hits. We'll focus on bigger names and batters who should be relying on line drives instead.

Willson Contreras (C, CHC) .047 xBA-BA

This is an interesting case, as Contreras has disappointed with his power but kept his value afloat through a high batting average. At the 50 PA threshold, only six catchers are hitting better than his .287 mark. Then again, Pirates backup catcher Elias Diaz has as many homers (seven) and nearly as many runs scored as Contreras in half as many at-bats. Contreras is in a great lineup and is guaranteed regular playing time, so even if the average dips, he is a must-start at the weakest offensive position. It's baffling how an inflated fly ball rate of 35.3% has led to a 9.3% HR/FB that is less than half of last season, but a dip in hard hit rate might explain it. It would make sense if his average drops, but his power increases in the second half, which is a tradeoff owners will probably take.

Scooter Gennett (2B/3B/OF, CIN) .045 xBA-BA

Apparently last year was not an outlier. While Scooter's owners all hope and pray that a PED-related suspension isn't about to drop any day, we've got to buy into the power as legit. His .329 average is a career high and based on a .378 BABIP that seems a bit high. Statcast tells us it is as well. His expected BA of .284 is right there with his .289 career average, but does nothing to affect his value. If Gennett just stays close to his current pace to match last year's numbers, he will have been a draft day bargain a firm top-10 second baseman.

John Hicks (C/1B, DET) .041 xBA-BA

Hicks has been a steady presence for the Tigers and a nice fill-in option at catcher on fantasy teams, even though he's almost exclusively used at first base these days. Hicks appears to be in line for some negative regression in terms of average, but this would be less disappoint than someone like Contreras, who came into the season with sky-high expectations. Hicks can easily be dropped back to the waiver wire if he slumps massively; if the downturn is slight, he stills serves well at catcher as long as he provides some power. He's recently moved into the cleanup spot, so RBI opportunities should offset a dip in BA.

Jed Lowrie (2B/3B, OAK) .045 xBA-BA

Lowrie seems to be heating up again, with homers in back-to-back games and five HR, 12 RBI in the past two weeks. He didn't do enough to earn an All-Star nod, but many fantasy owners have considered him a waiver wire MVP. He was never going to keep up his absurd April numbers, but it's reassuring to see his average climb back up after he hit just .255 in May. I believe his average is sustainable because much of his unexpected production came and went in the first half already. If there's one thing to worry about with Lowrie, it's a possible trade to the National League or somewhere that he won't necessarily be guaranteed everyday playing time.

Brandon Nimmo (OF, NYM) .032 xBA-BA

I'm not trying to pick on Nimmo, really. Just listing facts folks. I called him overvalued a week ago, based on popular perception that he was going to keep hitting the ball out of the park. He still hasn't homered since June 18 and has just one RBI in his last 14 games. A .260 average is not the strongest part of his game but even that could go down as well, if you believe in the xBA-BA formula as a truism. His .340 BABIP might say it all, but he actually posted higher numbers the past two stays in New York (.360, .365) so let's just assume Nimmo owners will have that mediocre average to hang their hats on.

 

Alarming Bottom Dwellers

On the flip side, many underachievers for expected batting average are of the big bopper variety. This means they are often speed-challenged and more likely to be thrown out on hard grounders. The presence of the shift also plays a role, but we won't dig into that data today. Just know that many of these players may not necessarily see a big uptick in batting average since xBA takes exit velocity into account

Daniel Murphy (2B, WAS) -.119 xBA-BA

Murphy doesn't own the worst number difference among all players I charted, but only Luis Guillorme prevented that and he's not a factor in fantasy baseball this year. Murphy has scuffled mightily since finally returning from an extended DL stint to start the season, but it looks as if some bad luck might be at play. According to Statcast, Murphy should be hitting .307. That's the Murphy we know - he hit .322 last year, .347 the year before, and is a career .298 hitter. Obviously the fact he missed spring training and half the season has something to do with his miserable numbers, but it's good to know that his Statcast peripherals are looking good already. Consider him a strong buy-low candidate.

Logan Morrison (1B, MIN) -.060 xBA-BA

Of course last year wasn't going to repeat itself. The Rays knew it and we saw it in the second half as LoMo struggled to prove his early 2017 numbers were remotely sustainable. Even a slugger should be able to maintain an average higher than .191, but even his best-case scenario of matching his xBA puts him at .251 with 10 homers and 30 RBI over 77 games. That's a replacement level player on a non-contending team that could sell off all its major parts before July is over. Hard pass.

Adam Duvall (OF, CIN) -.049 xBA-BA

Duvall isn't the slowest runner out there, so there's some hope to be had that bad luck is at play. In fact, Duvall's average 28.0 Sprint Speed is tied with NL steals leader Ender Inciarte for 134th, if you can believe it. That says more about Inciarte's skill at stealing bases than anything else. Duvall won't ever be a superior player in terms of batting average, but he is better than his .203 mark indicates. He's improved his walk rate and his 37.3% Hard% is six points higher than last season. The power is still there and he is on pace for 100 RBI by season's end, so you could still find a use for him at the end of your OF rotation if more balls fall into play. Outside of Murphy, he presents the best buy-low opportunity on this list, although he's available off waivers in two-thirds of fantasy leagues presently.

Albert Pujols (1B, LAA) -.048 xBA-BA

If you read the note above, you'll know this is all about speed, or lack thereof. Pujols has been among the league leaders in GIDP totals for years now and will always have a high number of balls that he absolutely smashes that turn into outs. Pujols should be hitting .291 according to his xBA, yet he hasn't reached that mark over a full season once since joining the Angels in 2012. Most of his plate discipline numbers are perfectly consistent with the last few years, but he is hitting more line drives at a harder clip this season. Still, his .243 average is nearly identical to last year and will probably stay right there, along with similar power numbers. In case you're wondering, Pujols ranks dead last among 476 Major League batters with a Sprint Speed of 22.4.

Gary Sanchez (C, NYY) -.047 xBA-BA

At least there's hope. Sanchez is still on the shelf and he's a no-brain starter regardless of batting average, but it's good to know there could be some positive regression heading his way. .237 is nothing special, but as a catcher with 30 bomb potential, you'll still take it.

 

More Statcast & Fantasy Baseball Strategy




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Aaron Rodgers3 hours ago

Could Be Placed On IR Or Benched
Jordan Eberle6 hours ago

To Miss At Least Three Months
Matthew Knies6 hours ago

Placed On Injured Reserve
Owen Power6 hours ago

Tallies Two Helpers On Friday
John Gibson7 hours ago

Busy In Overtime Loss
Connor Hellebuyck7 hours ago

Sharp in Friday's Victory
Kyle Connor7 hours ago

Tallies Two Points In Friday's Victory
Noah Fant15 hours ago

Questionable For Week 12, Update Coming On Saturday
Brock Purdy16 hours ago

Week 13 Status Uncertain
17 hours ago

Nationals Non-Tender Kyle Finnegan On Friday
17 hours ago

Rays Non-Tender Dylan Carlson
17 hours ago

Rockies Non-Tender Brendan Rodgers, Cal Quantrill
Mike Yastrzemski17 hours ago

Avoids Arbitration With Giants
18 hours ago

Blue Jays Non-Tender Closer Jordan Romano
Dustin May18 hours ago

Dodgers Sign Dustin May To One-Year Deal To Avoid Arbitration
Walker Kessler18 hours ago

Might Return To Action Saturday
Kyle Filipowski18 hours ago

To Miss Saturday's Game
Jordan Clarkson18 hours ago

Considered Questionable For Saturday
Miles McBride18 hours ago

Questionable To Face Jazz
Joel Embiid18 hours ago

To Remain Out On Sunday
Nikola Jokic18 hours ago

Returns To Action Friday
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope19 hours ago

No Longer On Injury Report
Wendell Carter Jr.19 hours ago

Considered Questionable For Saturday
Brady Singer19 hours ago

Shipped To Cincinnati
Jonathan India19 hours ago

Traded To Kansas City
Tre Mann19 hours ago

Listed As Out For Saturday
Torrey Craig19 hours ago

Available Versus Hawks
Nick Richards19 hours ago

Ruled Out For Saturday
Jarace Walker19 hours ago

Ready To Face Bucks
Ben Sheppard19 hours ago

Misses A Third Consecutive Game
Anfernee Simons19 hours ago

Returns To Action Friday
Ja Morant20 hours ago

Considered Doubtful For Saturday
Jerami Grant20 hours ago

Ready For Action Friday
Marcus Smart20 hours ago

Questionable For Saturday
Deandre Ayton20 hours ago

Remains Out On Friday
Yves Missi20 hours ago

Will Not Play On Friday
Stephen Curry20 hours ago

Available Versus Pelicans
Scoot Henderson20 hours ago

Absent On Friday
Rashod Bateman21 hours ago

Added To Week 12 Injury Report
Vince Dunn21 hours ago

Could Be An Option For Kraken Next Week
TOR21 hours ago

Alexander Nylander Joins Maple Leafs On One-Year Deal
George Kittle21 hours ago

Cleared For Week 12
Jason Dickinson21 hours ago

Expected To Play On Saturday
Cam York21 hours ago

Expected To Return Saturday
San Francisco 49ers21 hours ago

Nick Bosa Won't Play Against Packers
Mason McTavish22 hours ago

Remains Out On Friday
Brock Purdy22 hours ago

Ruled Out For Week 12
Tage Thompson22 hours ago

Continues To Sit On Friday
Kevin Hayes22 hours ago

A Game-Time Call Friday
Kris Letang22 hours ago

Might Return On Friday
Ladd McConkey22 hours ago

Returns To Practice On Friday
CeeDee Lamb22 hours ago

Cleared To Play In Week 12
Sam LaPorta22 hours ago

Off The Injury Report, Cleared For Week 12
Jake Ferguson23 hours ago

Ruled Out With Concussion
DeVonta Smith23 hours ago

Ruled Out For Week 12
Brock Purdy23 hours ago

Not Seen At Friday's Practice
T.J. Hockenson23 hours ago

Expects To Be More Involved In Week 12
Alexander Mattison23 hours ago

Zamir White Doubtful To Face Broncos
Nico Collins24 hours ago

Set For Increased Workload Against Titans
Mike Evans24 hours ago

Officially Listed As Questionable
Malik Nabers24 hours ago

Questionable For Week 12, Intends To Play
Sam Darnold1 day ago

Cleared For Sunday
D'Andre Swift1 day ago

Gets Questionable Tag For Week 12
Keenan Allen1 day ago

Lands On Injury Report, Questionable For Week 12
Shohei Ohtani1 day ago

In Early Stages Of Recovery From Shoulder Surgery
Tabatha Ricci1 day ago

Looks To Extend Her Win Streak
Yan Xiaonan1 day ago

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Muslim Salikhov1 day ago

A Favorite At UFC Macau
Chris Sale1 day ago

To Have Normal Offseason
Garrett Crochet1 day ago

Drawing Plenty Of Interest
Song Kenan1 day ago

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Zhang Mingyang1 day ago

Set For His Second UFC Fight
Ozzy Diaz1 day ago

An Underdog At UFC Macau
MacKenzie Weegar1 day ago

Notches Three Assists Against Rangers
Macklin Celebrini1 day ago

Tallies Two Assists In Thursday's Loss
Nikita Kucherov1 day ago

Comes Up With Three Assists Versus Blue Jackets
Sean Monahan1 day ago

Finishes Thursday's Win With Four Points
Zach Werenski1 day ago

Enjoys Career Night With Five Points Against Lightning
Jack Hughes1 day ago

Posts Three Assists Versus Hurricanes
Joonas Korpisalo1 day ago

Records 21-Save Shutout Versus Utah
Carlos Ulberg2 days ago

Looking To Cement Himself As A Title Contender At UFC Macau
Volkan Oezdemir2 days ago

Eyes Another Knockout At UFC Macau
Gabriella Fernandes2 days ago

A Big Underdog At UFC Macau
MMA2 days ago

Cong Wang Puts Undefeated Record On The Line At UFC Macau
Deiveson Figueiredo2 days ago

Looks To Extend Win Streak At UFC Macau
Petr Yan2 days ago

A Favorite At UFC Macau
Shohei Ohtani2 days ago

Named National League MVP In 2024
Aaron Judge2 days ago

Wins American League MVP Award
Cody Bellinger2 days ago

Cubs Looking To Trade Cody Bellinger?
2 days ago

Blake Snell Has Met With Red Sox, Dodgers
Chris Sale3 days ago

Wins National League Cy Young Award
Tarik Skubal3 days ago

Wins 2024 American League Cy Young Award
Austin Eckroat3 days ago

Heads To The RSM Classic After Win
Harris English3 days ago

Finding Form Heading To The RSM Classic
Ben Griffin3 days ago

Continues Playing Well Heading To The RSM Classic
Denny McCarthy3 days ago

Returns to The RSM Classic
Ludvig Aberg3 days ago

Looks To Defend RSM Classic Title
Si Woo Kim3 days ago

An Intriguing Option At RSM Classic
Maverick McNealy3 days ago

In Solid Form Ahead Of RSM Classic
Eric Cole3 days ago

Chasing First Tour Victory At RSM Classic
4 days ago

Guardians' Stephen Vogt Named AL Manager Of The Year
Milwaukee Brewers4 days ago

Pat Murphy Named NL Manager Of The Year
4 days ago

Nick Pivetta Declines Boston's Qualifying Offer
Jose Siri4 days ago

Mets Acquire Jose Siri From The Rays
Charles Oliveira5 days ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Michael Chandler5 days ago

Gets Dominated At UFC 309
Karine Silva5 days ago

Suffers Her First UFC Loss
Viviane Araujo5 days ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Mauricio Ruffy5 days ago

Extends His Win Streak To Six

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 
DK Metcalf - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS and Betting Picks

Wide Receiver Matchups to Target in Week 12 - DK Metcalf, Courtland Sutton, Jauan Jennings, Noah Brown, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine

Week 12 is here, and with it, another edition of WR Matchups to Target. Last week was one of our most successful of the season, with two home run DFS picks (3x multiplier on DraftKings salary) in Jauan Jennings and Marquez Valdes-Scantling to go along with two additional hits (2x multiplier). Week 12 brings a […]


Matthew Stafford - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Fantasy Football Landmines to Avoid for Week 12 - Matthew Stafford, D'Andre Swift, Mark Andrews, and more

Week 12 in the fantasy football season is a critical juncture. With six teams on bye, options are slim, and managers must make savvy lineup decisions as the playoffs loom.  One misstep—a "landmine" starter who underperforms—could cost you a victory and potentially a playoff berth. This week, we spotlight five players who may look tempting […]


Devaughn Vele - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

High-Upside Bench Stashes: Weekend Waiver Wire Adds for Week 12 Includes Blake Corum, Trey Benson, Keaton Mitchell, Jaylen Wright, Devaughn Vele, Theo Johnson, and more

Mastering the waiver wire is a crucial skill that can lead you to a fantasy football championship. It's not just about strategically placing your FAAB budget on specific players but also about knowing when to stash players. This dual strategy keeps you engaged and focused on your ultimate goal of winning a fantasy championship. As […]


Bucky Irving - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Key Starters and Tough Calls - Week 12 Lineup Spotlights for Fantasy Football Include Bucky Irving, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, DeVaughn Vele And More

Scott Engel’s Lineup Spotlights on RotoBaller.com feature key players to consider starting every week during the 2024 fantasy football season. “The King” highlights preferred starting options when you are dealing with challenging lineup decisions. The players included in this rundown are based on Scott’s Premium Weekly Lineup Rankings, available in the RotoBaller NFL Premium Pass. Enter the […]


Kareem Hunt - Fantasy Football Rankings, Waiver Wire Pickups, NFL Injury News

2024 Fantasy Football Rankings (Weekly Rankings)

Check out all of RotoBaller's fantasy football rankings. Staff rankings are updated regularly for all positions and include standard formats, PPR scoring, tiered rankings and dynasty leagues.


Tampa Bay Bucs Defense D/ST Streamers, Rankings, Waiver Wire - Vita Vea Fantasy Football IDP

Week 12 Team Defense Rankings for Fantasy Football: D/ST Updates for Buccaneers D/ST, Chiefs D/ST, Commanders D/ST, Vikings D/ST, Lions D/ST

If you've struggled to get strong production out of your D/ST and need a few wins to qualify for the fantasy football playoffs, you have come to the right place. Our NFL team's Week 12 fantasy football defense (D/ST) rankings are here to guide you in setting the best optimal lineup. The Broncos, Chiefs, and Vikings […]


C.J. Stroud - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Week 12 Superflex 2QB Rankings for Fantasy Football: Updates for C.J. Stroud, Justin Herbert, Kyler Murray, Matthew Stafford, Baker Mayfield

With bye weeks and injuries being major factors this week, Superflex fantasy managers will need to dive deeper into the rankings to find the top available options. Our Week 12 fantasy football Superflex rankings (2QB) for 2024 are here to help you navigate close start-or-sit calls and take home a "W" in an important week […]


Courtland Sutton - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Week 12 PPR Rankings for Fantasy Football: Overall Updates Include Courtland Sutton, Rome Odunze, DJ Moore, Austin Ekeler, Tony Pollard, DeAndre Hopkins

Welcome back to another weekend edition of RotoBaller's overall fantasy football rankings. It's a must-win week for many fantasy managers, so it's time to lock in. Below, you'll see our NFL team's updated Week 12 fantasy football PPR rankings for 2024. Let's see where key players like Deebo Samuel Sr., Jameson Williams, Austin Ekeler, Jaylen […]


Rico Dowdle - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Week 12 FLEX Rankings for Fantasy Football (RB, WR, TE) - Updates Include Jameson Williams, Jayden Reed, Jakobi Meyers, Rico Dowdle, Christian Watson

The 12th slate of the NFL season featured many players out of action via bye week or injury. That said, fantasy managers will need to dig deep into this week's rankings to find the top available FLEX consideration. We're here to help with our NFL team's updated Week 12 fantasy football FLEX rankings for 2024. […]


Chuba Hubbard - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Week 12 Running Back Rankings for Fantasy Football: RB Updates Include Bucky Irving, Kareem Hunt, Chuba Hubbard, J.K. Dobbins, Tyrone Tracy Jr.

Somehow, we're already onto the 12th week of the fantasy football season. Needless to say, time is running out to stack wins together, so let's get to crucial start-or-sit decisions with help from our updated Week 12 fantasy football running back rankings for 2024. Let's see where key players such as Jonathon Brooks, Chuba Hubbard, […]


Jauan Jennings - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Week 12 Wide Receiver Rankings for Fantasy Football: WR Updates Include Josh Downs, Quentin Johnston, Jauan Jennings, Calvin Ridley, Tank Dell

The wide receiver position is volitile, and WRs that aren't clear must-start studs are largley matchup dependent. If you need help with your start-or-sit calls ahead of the important Week 12 slate, we're here to assist with our NFL team's updated Week 12 fantasy football wide receiver rankings for 2024. Let's dig into the rankings […]


Anthony Richardson - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL News

Week 12 Quarterback Rankings for Fantasy Football: QB Updates Include Anthony Richardson, Bo Nix, Tua Tagovailoa, Geno Smith, Sam Darnold, Jared Goff

Early in the 2024 NFL season, quarterbacks struggled in fantasy football due to a regression in passing productions. However, many are picking up steam in the second half of the year. Still, start-or-sit decisions remain difficult when comparing two similar QBs. We're here to help with our updated Week 12 fantasy football quarterback rankings for […]


Will Dissly - Fantasy Football Rankings, Waiver Wire Pickups, NFL Injury News

Week 12 Tight End Rankings for Fantasy Football: TE Updates Include Will Dissly, Cade Otton, Zach Ertz, Jonnu Smith, Sam LaPorta, TJ Hockenson, Cole Kmet

It's make-or-break time for many fantasy managers, as the fantasy football playoffs are quickly approaching. Tight ends are always the toughest offensive position to navigate, so if you need help setting optimal lineups, you can come to the right place. Below, you'll see our NFL team's updated Week 12 fantasy football tight end rankings for […]