Hitter Advanced Metrics Studs and Duds - Max Exit Velocity for Week 2

We couldn't wait for the delayed 2022 season to get underway and now we eagerly await the Statcast data to accumulate so we can dissect it. It's obviously too early to make anything out of a majority of the data but we can evaluate something that requires one good swing of the bat - maximum exit velocity.

For a detailed explanation of why max exit velocity matters, read Alex Chamberlain's excellent writeup here. To quote Alex, "Despite its relative inferiority, you can still see strongly patterned trends between max EV and wOBAcon as well as other measurements of contact quality, including hard-hit rate." So, even if it's just one hard-hit ball, it could still be telling of future success.

I won't bother discussing most of the top 10 leaderboard since Giancarlo Stanton and Vladimir Guerrero will always reside there. We do have a couple of surprises worth discussing as usual. I'll break down how they have performed in this metric and what it means for 2022 fantasy baseball. Check out the pitcher version of this weekly piece as well.

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Max Exit Velocity Leaderboard

All stats courtesy of BaseballSavant and current as of 4/18/22.

Sean Murphy, Oakland Athletics

114 MPH - RBI double off Josh Fleming on 4/14
114 MPH - home run off Hyun-Jin Ryu on 4/16

That exit velo was so nice, he had to do it twice.

Murphy is the clear early standout in this category entering Week 2. He not only ranks fourth, sandwiched between Yankee stalwarts Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, but he should be on there twice. Murphy ripped the ball at a 114 exit velocity on two occasions, both resulting in extra-base hits. The second one is a textbook example of what you'd call a "no-doubter."

He's already barreled five balls, which is more than Shohei Ohtani, yet in fewer at-bats. Reminder that Murphy is a 6'3", 228 lb backstop in his prime at age 27 who hits third in the lineup. He hasn't gotten more attention because he dwells in Oakland but  despite the lack of household names, this offense has been producing. Murphy is potentially on the verge of a breakout season and an ideal trade target.

Nate Lowe, Texas Rangers

113 MPH fly-out off Tayler Saucedo on 4/10

Lowe is no stranger to this list, as he's ranked in the top 10 percentile in max exit velocity each of his four seasons in the majors. In fact, he'll probably make another appearance at some point but the question is whether he can do something about that darn -4° launch angle.

That's right, he's in Eric Hosmer territory with a negative launch angle and that's what has held him back thus far in his career. Lowe is a lanky 6'4" power hitter who should be driving it deep whenever possible. Instead, he's seen his ground ball rate increase each year, up to 66.7% in 2022. While that level should surely decrease, it's a bit concerning that instead of rectifying the problem, it's getting worse.

The positive for Lowe is that he's getting on base and hitting .371 over the first week and a half. He is truly an adjustment away from unlocking a massive power surge. Whether it ever happens remains to be seen.

Maikel Franco, Washington Nationals

111.7 MPH line-drive single off Huascar Ynoa on 4/11

Here's a name you likely didn't expect to surface in 2022. Franco was a non-roster invitee for the Nats and has become their everyday third baseman. With Carter Kieboom on the 60-day IL and nobody in the farm system close to knocking on the door at the hot corner, it should be Franco's job all year. He's made the most of it so far, hitting .275 with a homer and eight RBI over 11 games.

He did nearly all his damage in a three-game series with Atlanta where he went 8-for-13 and drove in seven of his runs, including the lone homer. There have still been promising signs throughout the young season though. While it's too early to make much of the other metrics, it should be noted that Franco is currently sixth-highest in average exit velocity. He also has 18 hard-hit batted ball events (95+ MPH); only four players have more.

We know Franco has the juice to hit 20 or more home runs and sustain a decent average. The R+RBI totals may be underwhelming because of his place near the bottom of the Nats' lineup, which is underwhelming in itself. It's better than what he's dealt with the last two years, though. Franco could serve as a fine CI option for most of the season in deeper leagues.

Julio Rodriguez, Seattle Mariners

111.5 MPH ground-out off Jose Urquidy on 4/17

Finally something positive for Rodriguez! OK, it was an out like most of his batted balls this year, but at least this is a sign of quality contact. Watching the replay, it rightfully should have been a base hit if not for a terrific play by Jose Altuve.

Unfortunately, hitting the ball hard is all J-Rod has going for him right now. If you thought Jarred Kelenic struggled in his Seattle debut last year, it's been a nightmare for this year's uber-prospect. He's slashing .125/.200/.156 with no HR and one RBI. His expected batting average is .177 so it's not a matter of bad luck, although, as Jamie Steed pointed out when determining whether to cut Rodriguez, he's been the victim of some questionable called strikes.

Rodriguez is in the same predicament as Nate Lowe as far as launch angle issues. He's got a 56.3% GB% and is getting no lift on the ball whatsoever. The double-edged sword of rostering Rodriguez in redraft leagues is that you don't want to let go because the talent is undeniable and he could suddenly start cracking doubles and homers but it's not guaranteed to happen any time soon so you're left with an AVG sink occupying a roster spot in the meanwhile. I recommend holding but benching until a correction comes.

Jesus Sanchez, Miami Marlins

111.1 MPH RBI double off Zach Eflin on 4/15

The metrics are all promising in the early portion of 2022 for this young slugger. Sanchez has 13 hard-hit balls, good for a 44.8% HardHit%. It's a minuscule sample size but his 94.3% FB/LD exit velo is also a good sign. Even better, he's not selling out for power. Sanchez has a .363 xBA thanks to a balanced batted-ball profile.

Sanchez was getting early preseason buzz in the fantasy community but it died down once the Marlins signed Avisail Garcia and Jorge Soler to man the outfield. It may have served to make him an even better value pick, as Sanchez is hitting third in the lineup and is living up to his hype. Often, you can find great fantasy value on bad or mediocre teams and this is no exception. Sanchez legitimately has 25-HR upside.

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