Hitter Advanced Metrics Studs and Duds - Hard-Hit Rate for Week 3

Admittedly, it's still early for many sabermetrics to be considered descriptive but fantasy managers can't wait until midseason to start digging for hidden gems.

You could always say that taking anything away from a two-week sample size is an overreaction. The purpose here is not to proclaim these players as the hard-hit kings or absolute busts of 2022 but rather to identify key risers and fallers from the previous season in an attempt to find potential trade targets or waiver wire adds.

Last week, we looked at early leaders in maximum exit velocity because of the limited amount of batted ball events. This week's focus takes a small step further by looking at the hard-hit rate. I'll break down a few specific players that may come as surprises on the leaderboard, how they have performed in this metric, and what it means for 2022 fantasy baseball. Check out the pitcher version of this weekly piece as well.

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Max Exit Velocity Leaderboard

All stats courtesy of BaseballSavant and current as of 4/25/22.

Christian Yelich, Milwaukee Brewers

62.9% Hard Hit%

Yelich's season so far has been so puzzling that BaseballSavant ran a full feature on him. He is the Major League leader in Hard Hit%. Yet, he's on track to put up even worse numbers than last year.

Those who drafted Yelich with the hope that he'd experience a full bounceback to MVP levels got a little giddy when he launched a grand slam the other day. Turns out, that's his only home run of the year. He's batting a not cool, but ice-cold .192 with a .327 SLG.

The problem is still the same and it's a failure to launch. All those hard-hit balls are going into the ground and turning into easy outs. Yelich is sporting the lowest line drive rate of his career and his launch angle remains well below his 2019 levels. He's also striking out 30.2% of the time. I said this during the draft season - Yelich may never regain the form of his prime-age breakout, particularly in the power department. He still has the tools and ability to perform the way he did during his peak but he is a methodical hitter who doesn't easily surge or slump. I wouldn't expect a major power outburst any time soon, nor would I attempt to buy low.

DJ LeMahieu, New York Yankees

58.5% Hard Hit%

This is the type of start that LeMahieu wanted and his fantasy managers needed to see. After 58 at-bats, LeMahieu is slashing .333/.414/.510 with a .354 xBA that is the eighth-best in the bigs. His Hard Hit rate is seventh-best and by far a career-high over his previous mark of 48.3% three years ago. When parsed down to hard hits per swing, he is fourth-best. He's particularly teeing off the fastball in 2022.

Clearly, there will be some regression in this department but the quality of contact is legit and he's got the track record. The veteran seems to be taking a page out of Joey Votto's playbook from last year, posting career-high swing rates both in and out of the zone. This is particularly noticeable in his first-pitch swing rate where he's at 31%, above the MLB average, compared to his own career average of 20.1%! That's not just slightly more aggressive, it's like going from Mr. Softee to Mr. T.

LeMahieu had a very disappointing 2021 for fantasy purposes but he retained elite plate discipline and did post an 88th percentile xBA and 68% Hard Hit%. He was also an ironman, making 679 plate appearances. He underachieved on many fronts in 2021 and now seems hellbent on rebounding in a big way.

Julio Rodriguez, Seattle Mariners

58.1% Hard Hit%

Not to come off as a Julio Rodriguez apologist, but he deserves being featured for a second straight week. Rodriguez's 5x5 line makes him look more like Mallex Smith than Ronald Acuna. He's helped fantasy teams tremendously with six steals but a .196 average with no homers simply won't do.

There are signs of a turnaround, as he picked up five hits in the three-game series with KC over the weekend. No long balls, but two of those hits were doubles. The power could pick up as he continues to lace the ball with authority. He is eighth in Hard Hit% with an excellent 92.5% exit velocity that is top-20 in the majors. He's also fourth in exit velocity on fly balls or line drives, just behind Aaron Judge. When he hits the ball, it screams audibly. The problem is that he isn't making contact nearly enough.

Rodriguez is striking out an absurd 40.3% of the time; it's not just one pitch type that's getting to him either. As with many rookies, he is being a bit too aggressive, swinging at the first pitch 37.1% of the time. Rodriguez isn't chasing too much, but he's not waiting for quality pitches before deciding to swing. As a result, he's missing or hitting the ball on the ground. These things take time, so it's hard to determine how long it will be before Rodriguez establishes enough plate discipline to be at least a .250 hitter rather than a liability. Maybe he needs a little more street cred among the umpires too...

These are the pitches Julio Rodriguez has struck out looking on this season pic.twitter.com/wnkhdUrPBE

— Welcome to the Ump Show (@umpjob) April 24, 2022

Cody Bellinger, Los Angeles Dodgers

51.4% Hard Hit%

Many words have been written about Bellinger this offseason and during the early portion of it thus far. If Yelich is a puzzle, Bellinger is a downright enigma. He began the season poorly, invoking concerns that he was simply broken at the plate. Slowly but surely, he's picking it up and starting to resemble the Belli we know and love.

Bellinger is in the top 20 in Hard Hit% and xwoBACON. The real good news is that he has four homers on the young season along with three steals. The bad news is that his 33.3% K% and 42.9% GB% are both career-worsts. As we've established already, hitting the ball hard isn't nearly as helpful when it's on the ground and you need to make enough consistent contact for that Hard Hit% to be meaningful. Bellinger may not have solved all his problems just yet but we know he can do it. The buy-low window on him may be closing soon.

Dylan Carlson, St. Louis Cardinals

16% Hard Hit%

Hey, how's Dylan Carlson doing this season?

Well, at least he's still fast. And not striking out too much!

This young stud has zero barrels, an average exit velocity of 82.8, and a hard-hit rate comparable to Alcides Escobar. There are plenty of other big-name sluggers who dwell at the bottom of the leaderboard in this category (Joey Votto, Marcus Semien, Kris Bryant) and we aren't too worried about them yet. With Carlson, it's different because he is only 23 and we haven't seen proof that he will be absolutely fine in the long run.

Carlson isn't the only red bird struggling early, as Paul Goldschmidt and Tyler O'Neill are both scuffling as well. Once the Cardinals' offense gets going, we could see all three take off. It's too soon to give up on a talented player like Carlson, but I do advise benching for the time being.

Steven Kwan, Cleveland Guardians

20% Hard Hit%

You knew this was coming. Not to poke holes at the hero of MLB's first week of action, but Kwansanity seems to be officially over. After going hitless in the past two games, his average is slowly approaching a realistic level. Kwan should still be a great help in batting average while swiping a few bases but it's possible that early estimates of 20-HR potential, including my own, may have been optimistic.

Kwan is homerless thus far and he's got the fourth-lowest FB/LD exit velocity among qualified hitters. Power has never been his game, so this should not be too shocking. He might turn out to be a singles/doubles hitter only, at least for this year. There's nothing wrong with that if he's hitting over .300 and helping out in steals. It simply bears repeating that a hot streak at the early part of the season always gets more credence than one at the end of the season, so fantasy managers should take advantage in the trade market whenever possible.

Jesse Winker, Seattle Mariners

25% Hard Hit%

Just two years ago, Winker was in the top-10 percentile of the league with a 49% Hard Hit rate. Last year, it was similarly high at 47.1%. In his first stint as a Mariner, he's down to 25%. It's early and all that but it's hard to ignore how bad he's looked so far wearing blue instead of red.

Winker is batting .154 while slugging .173 after 68 plate appearances. The exit velocity, or lack thereof, is obviously a concern. A closer look at the underlying metrics reveals that he could be doing much better though. Winker owns a .292 xBA which makes him one of the biggest underachievers in that area. His .486 xSLG is also well above league average. Some bad luck is clearly at play here.

The old launch angle argument is typically made one way - guys like Yelich and Rodriguez (see above) could be doing much better if they adjusted upward and hit more line drives or fly balls. In this case, Winker needs the reverse. He is suddenly posted a 40.9% FB% which, aside from being insanely high for a hitter, is 17 points higher than his career norm. He is getting under the ball like never before and it's led to a lot of easy outs.

We can't ignore the park factor difference either. Winker left a hitter's paradise and now resides in a more spacious dome for half his games.

Poor Jesse Winker. All these are HRs at GABP. pic.twitter.com/ffzfD4sM3e

— Votto Still Bangs (@EvilJoeyVotto) April 20, 2022

There's no doubt that fewer homers will be in play compared to years past but Winker is bound to get on track soon enough. If he was somehow dropped in one of your leagues, pounce quickly.

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