X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball: Statcast xStats

Rick Lucks breaks down Statcast Expected Statistics such as Expected Batting Average (xBA) as his series on making sabermetrics more accessible to fantasy owners continues.

Statcast is a valuable tool for fantasy analysis, and it can be easy to look at a stat called "Expected Batting Average" and blindly use it as your projection moving forward. Of course, proper use of these metrics is a little bit more nuanced than that.

First, a disclaimer: This article is about the "Expected Stats" found on Baseball Savant. It is not about the various "xStats" developed by fantasy analysts such as Mike Podhorzer or used in projection systems such as Ariel Cohen's ATC. Those tools have value, but any attempt at an in-depth analysis of them would involve far more math than the average fantasy manager is interested in.

With that out of the way, let's begin by identifying what the Expected Metrics are and how they work.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

How To Use Statcast's Expected Metrics In Fantasy

The first is xBA, or Expected Batting Average. This statistic is calculated using Hit Probability, itself a stat measuring how often a batted ball with a particular exit velocity and launch angle has fallen in for a hit since Statcast was introduced in 2015. For example, a line drive to the outfield that has historically fallen in for a hit 80 percent of the time counts as 80% of a hit by Hit Probability. xBA is simply a batting average produced using Hit Probability, actual K%, and official ABs. If you play in a traditional 5X5 roto league, this is the Expected Stat you'll probably use the most.

As of January 2019, the Hit Probability formula was modified to include the batter's Statcast Sprint Speed, more accurately representing his ability to beat out a ground ball. That said, the adjustment feels like it may be too light in certain circumstances, so you may still want to make a slight adjustment upward for true jackrabbits.

Next up is Expected Slugging Percentage, or xSLG. It is calculated in the same manner as xBA, except that each batted ball is weighted according to its probability of being a single, double, triple, or home run instead of just a hit. If your league counts slugging percentage, you might get good use out of this stat.

Finally, we have Expected Weighted On Base Average, or xwOBA. It is calculated the same way xSLG is, except real-world walks and HBP are added to the equation. Each result is also assigned a linear weight with more math than the simple multiplication used to calculate slugging percentage. This is the stat with the most real-world value, but doesn't translate that well to fantasy unless you play in a realistic points format.

The principal value of all three metrics is to take both luck and defense (and therefore actual results) out of the picture, allowing a player to be judged solely on his contact quality.

We'll assume that you play 5x5 roto and stick with the simpler xBA from here on out. Generally speaking, a player who posts a higher xBA than actual batting average would be expected to improve his average moving forward, while the opposite is true if a player's batting average is higher than his xBA.

Baseball Savant's Leaderboards allow you to sort players by the difference between their BA and xBA, so finding some samples is easy. Fernando Tatis Jr. of the San Diego Padres had the largest negative differential in 2019, posting a .317 average against an xBA of just .259. His batting average indeed regressed to .277 last year, though his .296 xBA suggests that he deserved a better fate. He's actually getting better, much to the consternation of pitchers everywhere.

Going the other way, Marcell Ozuna posted the best positive differential with a .288 xBA against a .241 actual mark in 2019. These advanced stats don't understand that certain players are more susceptible than others to the shift, so you should check those numbers before you blindly project improvement. In Ozuna's case, he performed roughly as well against the shift (.255 average) as he did without it (.258), so he looked like a nice bounceback candidate. He was exactly that, hitting .338 with a .312 xBA last season.

Pitchers illustrate another problem with xBA. Zach Plesac of the Cleveland Indians was the "luckiest" pitcher according to the metric in 2019, posting an xBA of .288 despite a batting average against of .241. The metric doesn't consider a defense behind a pitcher, however, so outstanding glovework like Francisco Lindor's 11 Outs Above Average could help sustain such a gap moving forward. Plesac improved in several areas last season, though Cleveland's defense appeared to help him again (.191 BAA vs. .229 xBA).

League-wide, major leaguers posted a .252 batting average and .250 xBA in 2019, a two-point differential that has declined in each full year of Statcast's existence. This trend suggests that the technology is getting better, but also that it isn't foolproof. It is always best to utilize Statcast Expected Stats as part of a broader analysis, rather than using them as your sole data point.

 

Conclusion

In summation, Expected Stats allow you to evaluate a player's performance based on his exit velocity and launch angle, taking variables such as the opposing defense out of the calculus. This can give you a better sense of a player's true talent level, but there are limitations on what you can do with it. Check out this link to brush up on other metrics you can use in your fantasy draft prep.

More Sabermetrics & Statcast for Fantasy Baseball




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Jake Fraley10 mins ago

Hits Grand Slam On Thursday
Adolis García7 hours ago

Adolis Garcia Goes Deep
Jake Tonges7 hours ago

Signs Exclusive-Rights Tender
Denver Broncos7 hours ago

Broncos To Focus On RB Position In Next Week's Draft
Reese Olson7 hours ago

Tosses Five Scoreless Innings
Drew Lock7 hours ago

Sam Howell, Drew Lock Expected To Compete For Backup Job
Austin Hays7 hours ago

Launches Second Home Run
Edwin Díaz7 hours ago

Edwin Diaz Secures Fourth Save
New York Giants7 hours ago

Giants Leaning Toward Taking Best Player Available At No. 3
Robert Garcia7 hours ago

Records First Save
New Orleans Saints7 hours ago

Ryan Ramczyk Announces His Retirement
Kumar Rocker7 hours ago

Strikes Out Eight
Buffalo Bills8 hours ago

Tre'Davious White Reunites With Buffalo
Aaron Rodgers8 hours ago

Willing To Play For $10 Million A Year
Donovan Mitchell9 hours ago

Logs Full Practice On Thursday
JP Sears9 hours ago

Throws Six Scoreless Innings
Damian Lillard9 hours ago

Cleared Of Deep-Vein Thrombosis
Edgar Quero9 hours ago

Hitless In MLB Debut
Pelle Larsson9 hours ago

Iffy For Friday
Tomoyuki Sugano9 hours ago

Tosses Seven Strong Innings
Kevin Love9 hours ago

Considered Questionable For Friday
Cristopher Sánchez9 hours ago

Cristopher Sanchez Dominates In Win
Nikola Jović9 hours ago

Nikola Jovic Questionable For Friday
Brandon Williams9 hours ago

Likely To Play Friday
Tyler Soderstrom9 hours ago

Hits League-Leading Ninth Homer
Clint Capela9 hours ago

Still Out On Friday
Randy Arozarena9 hours ago

Comes Up Clutch
Trae Young10 hours ago

Probable For Friday
Anthony Davis10 hours ago

Probable For Friday's Play-In Action
Corbin Carroll10 hours ago

Extends Hitting Streak, Steals Three Bases
Ja Morant10 hours ago

Listed As Questionable For Friday
Andrew Heaney10 hours ago

Blanks The Nationals For Series Sweep
Héctor Neris10 hours ago

Hector Neris Signs Minors Deal With Angels
Christian Encarnacion-Strand10 hours ago

Placed On Injured List With Back Inflammation
Luke Keaschall11 hours ago

Twins Calling Up Prospect Luke Keaschall
Brandon Marsh11 hours ago

Not Expected To Land On Injured List
Nick Castellanos11 hours ago

Suffers Hip Injury On Thursday, Should Play Friday
Jakob Chychrun12 hours ago

Returns Against Penguins
Rasmus Andersson12 hours ago

Out Against Kings
Jonathan Huberdeau12 hours ago

Sits Out Regular-Season Finale
Ryan Pulock12 hours ago

Out On Thursday
Jake Sanderson12 hours ago

Back In Action Thursday
Thomas Chabot13 hours ago

To Be Rested Against Hurricanes
Claude Giroux13 hours ago

Active On Thursday
DJ LeMahieu13 hours ago

Could Start A Rehab Assignment On Tuesday
Brady Tkachuk13 hours ago

Returns To Senators Lineup Thursday
Drew Doughty13 hours ago

To Remain Out Thursday
Quinton Byfield13 hours ago

A Game-Time Call Thursday
Adrian Kempe13 hours ago

Resting Against Flames
Anze Kopitar13 hours ago

Expected To Return Thursday
FLA14 hours ago

Jesse Puljujarvi Suspended For Two Games
Dallas Cowboys16 hours ago

Cowboys Add Hakeem Adeniji To Offensive-Line Room
Aaron Rodgers16 hours ago

Retirement Still An Option For Aaron Rodgers
San Francisco 49ers17 hours ago

Isaac Alarcon Suspended Six Games
Stanley Morgan Jr.17 hours ago

Titans Cut Stanley Morgan Jr.
17 hours ago

Browns GM Impressed With Jalen Milroe
Cleveland Browns18 hours ago

Browns Think Travis Hunter May Be Best Suited As A Receiver
Dallas Goedert18 hours ago

Eagles May Be Interested In Future Draft Picks For Dallas Goedert
DeMar DeRozan22 hours ago

Notches Game-High 33 Points In Play-In Loss
Klay Thompson22 hours ago

Sinks Five Triples En Route To 23 Points
Anthony Davis22 hours ago

Scores 27 Points In Win Over Kings
Josh Giddey22 hours ago

Bags Double-Double In Play-In Loss
Tyler Herro22 hours ago

Leads Heat Past Bulls Wednesday Night
Jericho Sims22 hours ago

Set To Return For Playoffs
Kyrie Irving22 hours ago

Mavericks Optimistic Kyrie Irving Returns By January
Connor McDavid24 hours ago

Hits 100-Point Mark For Fifth Straight Season
Jack Eichel1 day ago

Scores In Return
Dylan Larkin1 day ago

Tallies Two Points In Victory
Kaiden Guhle1 day ago

Leads Montreal To Playoff-Clinching Victory
Connor Hellebuyck1 day ago

Stops 30 Shots On Wednesday
Jason Robertson1 day ago

Exits Early On Wednesday
Tennessee Titans1 day ago

Titans Have Become Sold On Cam Ward
1 day ago

Shedeur Sanders' Draft Stock Has Fallen
1 day ago

Jaxson Dart A Lock To Be A First-Round Pick?
Las Vegas Raiders1 day ago

Kolton Miller Sitting Out Offseason Program As He Seeks Extension
Chicago Bears1 day ago

Bears Sign T.J. Edwards To Two-Year Extension
Anthony Davis1 day ago

Available On Wednesday Night
Ja Morant1 day ago

Says He'll Play On Friday Night
Kevin Durant1 day ago

Rockets Have "Level Of Mutual Interest"
Lucas Glover1 day ago

Looks To Rebound After Poor Performance
Stuart Skinner1 day ago

Starts Against Sharks Wednesday
Ondrej Palat1 day ago

Out On Wednesday
Kevin Love2 days ago

Still Out On Wednesday
2 days ago

Trevor Etienne Visiting With Patriots On Wednesday
Daniel Berger2 days ago

Looking To Continue Solid Play At RBC
Sepp Straka2 days ago

Looking To Bounce Back At RBC
2 days ago

Colston Loveland To Be Top-15 Draft Pick?
Justin Thomas2 days ago

Looking To Shake Off Poor Masters At RBC Heritage
Xander Schauffele2 days ago

Still Looking For Year's First Win At RBC Heritage
Maverick McNealy2 days ago

Is An Intriguing Play At RBC Heritage
Shane Lowry2 days ago

Looks To Shake Off Poor Masters Sunday At RBC Heritage
Will Zalatoris2 days ago

Eyes A Bounce-Back At RBC Heritage
Gary Woodland2 days ago

Could Add Some Surprise At Hilton Head
Sam Burns2 days ago

Hoping For Better Times At RBC Heritage
Sahith Theegala2 days ago

Still Trying To Put It All Together
Aaron Rai2 days ago

Might Be That Guy For Hilton Head
Robert MacIntyre2 days ago

All Or Nothing At RBC Heritage
Tom Hoge2 days ago

Still Playing Solid Heading To Hilton Head
Nick Dunlap2 days ago

Continues To Have Rough Stretch
Keegan Bradley2 days ago

Looks To Move On From Masters Performance
Matt Fitzpatrick2 days ago

A Boom-Or-Bust Option At RBC Heritage
Patrick Cantlay2 days ago

A Strong Play At RBC Heritage
Jordan Spieth2 days ago

Targets Another Strong RBC Heritage Showing
Collin Morikawa2 days ago

Eyeing Victory At RBC Heritage
Max Homa2 days ago

Breaks Through At The Masters
Alexander Volkanovski3 days ago

Reclaims Featherweight Title
Diego Lopes3 days ago

Drops Decision At UFC 314
Paddy Pimblett3 days ago

Remains Undefeated In The UFC
Michael Chandler3 days ago

Suffers TKO Loss
MMA3 days ago

Patricio Freire Gets Dominated In His UFC Debut
Yair Rodriguez3 days ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Bryce Mitchell3 days ago

Gets Submitted At UFC 314
Jean Silva3 days ago

Gets Submission Win At UFC 314
Dominick Reyes3 days ago

Wins Third Fight In A Row
Austin Dillon4 days ago

Nabs His First Top-10 Finish Of The 2025 Season At Bristol
Ryan Blaney4 days ago

Bold Strategies Fall Flat, Still Musters A Top-Five Finish At Bristol
Christopher Bell4 days ago

Finishes In The Top 10 After Falling Back Midway At Bristol
Ty Gibbs4 days ago

Earns His First Top-Five Finish Of The 2025 Season At Bristol
Chase Briscoe4 days ago

Quietly Scores First Career Top-Five Finish At Bristol
William Byron4 days ago

Denny Hamlin Cuts Into William Byron's Points Lead
William Byron4 days ago

Makes Best Of His Mediocre Qualifying Run With Sixth-Place Finish
Alex Bowman4 days ago

Despite Engine Failure, Alex Bowman's Improved Speed Looks Promising
NASCAR4 days ago

A.J. Allmendinger Enters Playoff Picture With Surprise Bristol Top-10 Finish
Kyle Larson5 days ago

Will Compete For The Win At Bristol
Chase Elliott5 days ago

Is One Of The More Favorable DFS Options Available For Bristol
William Byron5 days ago

Is A Solid DFS Option For Bristol Lineups
Tyler Reddick5 days ago

Could Tyler Reddick Be A Sneaky DFS Option For Bristol?
NASCAR5 days ago

Is Bubba Wallace Worth Rostering For Bristol This Week?
Ross Chastain5 days ago

Could Ross Chastain Be A Worthy DFS Choice For Bristol?
Carson Hocevar5 days ago

Is Carson Hocevar Worth Rostering For Bristol DFS Lineups?
NASCAR5 days ago

Should Fantasy Managers Avoid Rostering A.J. Allmendinger In DFS For Bristol?
Ryan Preece5 days ago

Is Ryan Preece Worth Rostering For Bristol Lineups?
Austin Dillon5 days ago

May Be One Of The Top Value Options For Bristol DFS This Week
Noah Gragson5 days ago

Should DFS Players Consider Noah Gragson For Bristol Lineups?
Riley Herbst5 days ago

Is In Play For Bristol DFS Lineups
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF