Top Starting Pitcher Prospects: Fantasy Baseball Sleepers and Busts for 2025

Rookie starting pitchers often don't find success in their first big league season. For every Paul Skenes (okay, there haven't been many of those - ever), a dozen other rookies debut every season and pitch just okay or even poorly.

Most rookie pitchers will be drafted late, except for a few highly-touted talents who are expected to either open the season in the rotation or get a quick call-up from Triple-A. Every manager has to make a tough choice about whether to stash prospects with valuable roster spots, and it's probably a good idea to leave most prospects on the waiver wire until much closer to when they get the call.

But there are a handful of young arms worth drafting, or at least monitoring closely early in the season, that could have major fantasy impacts. In this piece, I'll try to determine which of these top prospects deserve your attention on draft day.

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Bubba Chandler, Pittsburgh Pirates

ADP: 318

Chandler is generating a ton of buzz this spring, hitting 100 on the radar gun with his fastball and demonstrating the type of strikeout upside that helped him dominate at both Double-A and Triple-A in 2024.

Top @Pirates prospect Bubba Chandler picks up his fourth strikeout of the day on a 100 MPH pitch 🔥 #SpringBreakout pic.twitter.com/18Odh7YPkK

— MLB (@MLB) March 14, 2025

I have him at the top of my list because of the recent development of Jared Jones's injury. Jones is getting a second opinion at the moment but could be shut down for an extended period if the news is bad.

If the Pirates have a Jared Jones-sized hole in their rotation, they may have no choice but to either roll with Chandler in the rotation to start the season or bring him up rather quickly in April/May. He's got the stuff to dominate and has already drawn some comparisons to his teammate Skenes.

Jackson Jobe, Detroit Tigers

ADP: 237

Editor's Note: Jobe has officially made the Tigers' rotation as their fifth starter to open the regular season. However, Dan stands by his analysis that Jobe is being overdrafted at his ADP.

Since Skenes came up last season, Jobe has taken the top spot among baseball pitching prospects. He mixes a high-90s fastball with a nasty cutter and slider, which led to a 25% K% across Double-A and Triple-A last season.

tigers SP Jackson Jobe is OVERVALUED in Yahoo fantasy baseball leagues @ just under 40% rostered

3.65 ERA in ST might look nice, but that comes w/ a TON of luck:
🔹.100 BABIP (2nd lowest of 131 pitchers, min. 10 IP)
🔹92.6% left on base rate (12th-highest)

8.7% K-BB%
8% SwStr% pic.twitter.com/pvnSoYBjTa

— the Fantasy Gospel™ (@fantasy_gospel) March 19, 2025

But this spring, he has failed to impress, with hitters making a lot of contact against him. His fastball isn't moving much, and he's been far too predictable with how he deploys his pitches. It feels like he needs more seasoning at the Triple-A level since he only made two starts there late in the season last year.

I am not drafting Jobe in any leagues at this elevated ADP. The hype surrounding him is too great considering that he's likely to start the year in the minors and the Tigers have enough pitching to be patient and wait for him to develop. You can draft guys like Brandon Woodruff, Jesus Luzardo, and Nick Lodolo at similar ADP - and I would advise you to do so!

Quinn Mathews, St. Louis Cardinals

ADP: 378

Mathews has made only one start this spring but whiffed three batters in two scoreless innings. The 24-year-old was a fourth-round pick out of Stanford in 2023, and he made his way through the minors from Single-A to Triple-A last year.

Congratulations to LHP Quinn Mathews on being named to the All-Spring Breakout Second Team.

3.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 3 SO pic.twitter.com/rnoGWENP9b

— Cardinals Player Development (@CardsPlayerDev) March 18, 2025

His minor league numbers were great at his first three stops, but he had a 6.48 in four Triple-A starts. He's most likely set to head to Triple-A to begin the season, but he's much more polished than other young pitchers and could be on the fast track to crack the rotation within the first month or two of the season.

Zebby Matthews, Minnesota Twins

ADP: 418

The right-handed fireballer has been the best pitching prospect in camp with fellow youngster David Festa having a much tougher go of it so far. Matthews has 12 strikeouts in nine innings so far without allowing an earned run and sporting a WHIP of just 0.54.

Zebby Matthews is carving so far this spring.

He's up to 9.1 scoreless innings with 12 strikeouts.

Wednesday's outing was his best yet ⤵️https://t.co/PvrnuqXhw1 pic.twitter.com/bXxpxuil5L

— Baseball America (@BaseballAmerica) March 13, 2025

Matthews sits 95-96 on his fastball and has a full arsenal of pitches to complement it with a cutter, slider, changeup, and curveball. He's not a lock to make the opening-day rotation, but he could be the first call-up when Minnesota needs a fresh arm, especially if he continues to pitch well at Triple-A.

Rhett Lowder, Cincinnati Reds

ADP: 455

There's not much buzz around Lowder right now as he has yet to pitch this Spring due to an elbow issue. He will likely miss the rest of spring training and start the season on the IL at Triple-A.

But I like stashing him where you can, as Lowder has more opportunity than a lot of other prospects to crack a rotation. The Reds rotation is pretty thin after Hunter Greene, Lodolo, and Brady Singer, and Lowder was quite impressive in his brief cup of coffee in the bigs last year, posting a 1.17 ERA over six starts.

Like several of these other pitchers, Lowder rose through the ranks of the minors so quickly that he has barely spent any time at Triple-A (just one start last season). His best-case scenario is that he gets a clean bill of health here soon and is given a month or so to ramp up at Triple-A with the possibility of grabbing a rotation spot by June.

Jack Leiter, Texas Rangers

ADP: Mostly Undrafted

Leiter's 35 innings in the majors last year were bad, like very, very bad. He went 0-3 with an 8.83 ERA and 1.71 WHIP. The strikeouts weren't there, and he allowed far too many walks and home runs. He looked like he was in over his head, and he had no feel for when to throw his pitches, so his velocity and movement were mitigated by his lack of control and pitch sequencing.

The transformation Jack Leiter has undergone over the offseason is nothing short of incredible! pic.twitter.com/ddSHxf9VyN

— Pitch Profiler (@pitchprofiler) March 13, 2025

The walks are still a bit troubling (8 across 9.2 innings), but he's allowed just one long ball while striking out 12 this spring. He has tweaked his arsenal a bit, ditching his cutter for a sinker and upping his changeup usage while throwing his four-seamer less. That sounds like a more balanced approach than last year when he was very fastball-heavy. He should get a chance to start the season with the big league club, so he's worth adding to your watchlist as he could be at least an early-season streaming option.

Chase Dollander, Colorado Rockies

ADP: Mostly Undrafted

Dollander is Colorado's top pitching prospect and a former first-round pick from the 2023 draft. He tossed 118 innings across Single-A and Double-A last season, piling up 169 strikeouts and posting an impressive 2.59 ERA.

Dollander had a rough start to spring training but has been very sharp in his last two outings, allowing no earned runs while walking four and striking out ten hitters. While Colorado is starved for pitching, I don't think they will push Dollander into the rotation this early in the year, as they are not going to be in contention to win anything this year.

RHP Chase Dollander had another scoreless outing Tuesday night against the San Francisco Giants:

3.2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 7 K on 73 pitches#Rockies are considering a four-man rotation to start the season, but have continued to be impressed by their top pitching prospect. pic.twitter.com/XEINmw59gj

— Patrick Lyons (@PatrickDLyons) March 19, 2025

My best guess is that Dollander is sent to Triple-A to get some more experience and could get a call to come up later this Summer. He's not a must-draft or stash now, if that is indeed the timeline. But when Colorado does decide to deploy him, he is a guy with electric stuff who will potentially be a hot commodity for fantasy baseball.

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