5 Undervalued, Overvalued Starting Pitcher Picks for Fantasy Baseball Points Leagues

Welcome back to our ongoing draft series for fantasy baseball points leagues, focusing on starting pitchers who are undervalued and overvalued based on fantasy baseball ADPs. We've already covered the hitters, and today we dig into some pitchers. Before we get going, be sure to also bookmark out our constantly updated fantasy baseball points rankings. RotoBaller offers more than 

The biggest question heading into fantasy baseball drafts is when the right time is to select a starting pitcher. Some would say selecting one early in the draft is important because there's a clear top three in drafts this season, while others would say waiting to grab your first one in the fourth or fifth round makes your team more well-rounded in points leagues. 

However, like every position in fantasy, there are plenty of values and fades to take note of. So, let's dive in and look at the starting pitcher landscape heading into fantasy drafts.

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Kevin Gausman, Toronto Blue Jays

ADP: 154.1

Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Kevin Gausman did not have the greatest season on the mound last season. Despite sporting a solid 3.83 ERA across 31 starts, the right-hander had just a 21.4 percent strikeout rate to go with a 42.4 percent hard-hit rate and a 23.4 percent whiff rate. All three of those numbers were some of the worst of Gausman's career. 

A potential reason for the veteran's inefficiencies in 2024 could have been related to a shoulder injury he suffered in spring training. Gausman was shut down for most of the spring due to right shoulder fatigue, but he didn't start the season on the injured list. That definitely could have played a part in his subpar year. The right-hander said that he probably should have begun the season on the IL to help him build up. 

Alejandro Kirk, Zach Pop and Kevin Gausman are on “best shape of their life” watch, John Schneider said.

Kevin Gausman looks “sturdier”

Bowden Francis went blonde. #BlueJays

— Keegan Matheson (@KeeganMatheson) February 13, 2025

However, with that in the past, look for Gausman to recapture his All-Star form in 2025. He has had a normal spring this offseason and has been one of the more consistent pitchers in the game recently. The right-hander has struck out at least 205 batters in three of the past four seasons while averaging just under 32 starts in each of those four years. He's currently a great value pick at his 154.1 ADP.  

Verdict: Undervalued 

Freddy Peralta, Milwaukee Brewers

ADP: 103.7

It's hard not to like Milwaukee Brewers starting pitcher Freddy Peralta in point-league formats. He will strike out a ton of batters, won't have a high ERA, and has the potential to pitch deep into games. Last season, Peralta finished the year with a 3.68 ERA, 200 strikeouts, and 11 wins across 32 starts. 

As a result, Peralta is currently going a bit too low in drafts. He has struck out at least 200 batters in back-to-back seasons, and those high strikeouts should only continue into 2025. His whiff rate (31.1 percent) and strikeout rate (27.6 percent) both ranked in the top 19 percent of the league last year. Given how important strikeouts are in points leagues, the right-hander should outperform his ADP.

Freddy Peralta, Filthy 78mph Curveball. 😷 pic.twitter.com/pAwKVJ3a3X

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 2, 2023

He has started at least 30 games for the Brewers in consecutive years and is coming off a career-high 173 2/3 innings pitched. Therefore, it's not a surprise to see RotoBaller have Peralta ranked 30 spots higher (73) than his preseason ADP (103.7). Although the 28-year-old has to be better at limiting walks, his strikeout upside should help him post consistent fantasy numbers for managers in 2025. 

Verdict: Undervalued 

Tyler Glasnow, Los Angeles Dodgers

ADP: 94.7

Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Tyler Glasnow has been one of the best pitchers in the game when healthy. Last season, the right-hander finished the year with a 3.49 ERA and 168 strikeouts across 134 innings pitched. Glasnow also ranked in the top 10 percent of the league in xERA (2.65), xBA (.195), and strikeout rate (32.2 percent). 

But taking a pitcher inside the top 100 in drafts who has never been able to stay healthy is just too much of a risk. Glasnow has started just 59 games over the last four years, and his 22 starts in 2024 were a career-high. The Dodgers pitcher has also never pitched more than 135 big-league innings in a season. So, it's best to pass on him at his generous 94.7 ADP.

There's no doubt that the 31-year-old right-hander is an elite pitcher in the majors. His ADP, though, is just too rich, considering he will almost certainly miss time in 2025. On top of that, there have been reports that the Dodgers plan to go to a six-man rotation once Shohei Ohtani is healthy enough to pitch. That may hurt Glasnow's fantasy value even more. 

Verdict: Overvalued 

Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants

ADP: 92.3

San Francisco Giants starting pitcher Logan Webb has become one of the more underrated pitchers in the majors. He continues to put up solid numbers on the mound but doesn't necessarily get the recognition among fans. Fantasy managers also appear to be sleeping on the right-hander, as Webb finds himself going in the eighth or ninth round of fantasy drafts. 

While he won't finish the year toward the top of the league in strikeouts, Webb will have an above-average ERA with over 200 innings pitched. The 28-year-old has thrown over 200 innings in back-to-back seasons while making at least 32 starts in each of the last three years. So, he's an easy selection at his 92.3 ADP and is severely undervalued currently in points leagues. 

For the fourth straight year, Logan Webb will get the ball on Opening Day ⚾️ pic.twitter.com/ulvW9XxnSm

— SFGiants (@SFGiants) February 22, 2025

Webb is coming off a season in which he had a 3.47 ERA, 172 strikeouts, and 50 walks across 204 2/3 innings pitched. He also ranked in the 89th percentile in chase rate (33 percent) last season. The Giants pitcher will never have big strikeout numbers, but he will go deep into games, which will keep his fantasy value afloat. The right-hander completed at least six innings in 24 of 33 starts in 2024. 

Verdict: Undervalued

Jacob deGrom, Texas Rangers

ADP: 50.1

Taking Texas Rangers starting pitcher Jacob deGrom with a top-50 pick is one of the riskiest things fantasy managers can do in drafts this season. Not only is deGrom turning 37 years old in June, but the flame-throwing right-hander has not pitched more than 100 innings in a year since 2019. As a result, it might be hard to rely on him to stay healthy throughout the entire 2025 campaign. 

He has only pitched a combined 41 innings over the last two years due to Tommy John surgery. Although deGrom looked great in his 10 2/3 innings pitched last season and allowed just two runs across his three starts, can fantasy managers rely on him to make over 25 starts in 2025? That's ultimately why he is an avoid at this point in drafts. 

If deGrom were to stay healthy this year, then he would probably finish as a top fantasy pitcher. He would likely rack up over 200 strikeouts and have a sub-three ERA. However, he's just too much of a risk currently at his 50.1 ADP, given his recent injury history. RotoBaller has the two-time Cy Young Award winner ranked 221st in points leagues. 

Verdict: Overvalued

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