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With the calendar flipping to July, we are now only a handful of weeks away from the beginning of NFL training camps. Fantasy football season is here! We all know how important a stud running back is to a fantasy football championship. But how do you decide which backs to draft? Or more importantly, which ones to fade? One way to do so is by evaluating running back and offensive line combinations.
For this exercise, we will use a combination of Pro Football Focus’s (PFF) Offensive Line Run Blocking Grade (RBLK) as well as Next Gen Stats Rush Yards Over Expectation (RYOE). RBLK speaks for itself, but RYOE measures the difference between actual rushing yards and expected rushing yards throughout the season. It’s a good way to identify which backs are gaining yards beyond what the offensive line provides them. Backs that finish lower in this metric can really struggle without quality offensive line play, as it’s hard for them to manufacture yards on their own.
Make sure you keep up to date with all your fantasy football needs by following RotoBaller on X and checking out RotoBaller.com. With that said, here are five of the worst running back-offensive line combinations to keep in mind during your 2024 fantasy football draft.
Editor's Note: Our incredible team of writers won two writing awards and received 12 award nominations by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. A big congrats to our very own Byron Lindeque (Golf) and Jordan McAbee (NASCAR) for both winning Writer Of The Year awards! Be sure to follow RotoBaller's analysis and advice all year long, and win more. Win More With RotoBaller!Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Rachaad White
TB PFF RBLK Grade: 29th
White RYOE Finish: 49th
Thanks to a heavy dose of volume, White was able to overcome poor offensive line play, as well as his own inefficiency, to finish as the PPR RB4.
Rachaad White 31-Yard Touchdown!
pic.twitter.com/2QopotDLFW— SleeperNFL (@SleeperNFL) December 10, 2023
White has consistently graded poorly in many key metrics since he entered the league. The reality is that he has not been a good running back two years into his career and just about any metric will back up that statement. Bad running backs are always at risk of losing their job, and White is no different.
Tampa Bay has taken steps to address the offensive line this offseason. It drafted center Graham Barton with the 26th pick in the NFL Draft. His presence should help elevate this unit. Better offensive line play would seemingly help White, but it doesn’t appear that he is capable of taking advantage. Put it all together, and it’s hard to justify taking White at his current FFPC ADP of 39th overall.
New Orleans Saints - Alvin Kamara
NO PFF RBLK Grade: 25th
Kamara RYOE Finish: 46th
Kamara enters his age-29 season fully entrenched as the team's starting running back. 2023 was another strong year as he finished as the overall RB12 in PPR leagues and was the RB3 in fantasy points per game (PPG).
The Saints strike first! 🙌
Alvin Kamara 1st touchdown +400!#NFL #Saints
pic.twitter.com/XivKXTipAF— The Sports Forum (@DenverForum) December 10, 2023
Despite the strong showing, he seems to be a player in decline. In addition to a poor showing in RYOE, Kamara posted career lows in rushing yards, yards per reception (Y/R), and yards per target (Y/TGT). Another strong fantasy finish is possible, but it appears he is on his last legs. As for the offensive line, New Orleans was clearly aware of its issues with that unit as it selected Taliese Fuaga in the first round of April’s draft. This group will need to play better in 2024 because it looks like Kamara can no longer do it by himself.
Also, something to note -- there was recent news that Kamara is angling for a new contract. He skipped the Saints’ final minicamp practice as a way of showing his displeasure. A training-camp holdout could be next. With Kamara entering the twilight of his career, it’s unknown if the Saints are willing to further extend him. All of this just adds a little more uncertainty to Kamara’s outlook. While he’s been a fantasy stalwart for years, it’s time for gamers to look elsewhere at running back.
Chicago Bears - D’Andre Swift
CHI PFF RBLK Grade: T-23rd
Swift RYOE Finish: 40th
Chicago’s run blocking was not exactly a strength when looking at the numbers. However, it did make a point to beef up this unit. The club selected tackle Kiran Amegadjie in the third round of the NFL Draft and signed center Coleman Shelton in free agency to take over as the starter. These additions should help make a difference in the team’s ground game.
The Bears also made a point to sign Swift to a three-year, $24 million contract in the opening days of free agency. 2023 was a career year for Swift. He accumulated over 1,200 scrimmage yards and eclipsed the 1,000-rushing-yard mark for the first time in his career.
D’ANDRE SWIFT TOUCHDOWN
pic.twitter.com/iCIwgD4UX8— Barstool Philly (@BarstoolPhilly) December 26, 2023
While his surface-level stats looked good, the underlying metrics paint a different picture. He had a very poor showing in RYOE as well as several other metrics. Backmate Khalil Herbert graded higher than Swift in RYOE and has always produced when given the opportunity. He could eventually emerge as the preferred option if Swift struggles. Although, it has been rumored that Herbert is on the roster bubble heading into training camp. It’s a situation worth monitoring as cutting Herbert would indicate the team is fully committed to Swift.
Nonetheless, there is precedent for a team turning away from a back after signing him to a big contract. Just last year, we saw the Carolina Panthers bench starter Miles Sanders in favor of Chuba Hubbard after they inked Sanders to a four-year, $25.4 million deal. If Swift struggles, don’t be surprised if Herbert or someone else wrestles the starting job away.
Green Bay Packers - Josh Jacobs
GB PFF RBLK Grade: T-23rd
Jacobs RYOE Finish: 45th
While Jacobs enjoyed a career year in 2022, his 2023 season was a disappointment. He finished as the RB28 one year removed from an RB3 finish. It makes sense when you see how poorly he finished in RYOE. Outside of his banner 2022, Jacobs has never been an efficient back. Green Bay didn’t seem to care, or notice, and it inked him to a four-year, $48 million deal this offseason.
The team added Jordan Morgan via the NFL Draft as well as veteran Andre Dillard in free agency to help fortify the offensive line. While he struggled as a pass-protector, Dillard did finish 10th in ESPN’s Run Block Win Rate (RBWR) and should help the run game. While better offensive line play would make life easier for Jacobs, there’s nothing in his data suggesting he will return to his 2022 form. For whatever it’s worth, Las Vegas ranked 14th in RBLK last year. It was a pretty good situation for Jacobs in terms of run blocking, and yet he still struggled.
Green Bay also added rookie running back MarShawn Lloyd in the NFL Draft. Lloyd was one of the top rushers in the class on pure talent, but he has a massive fumbling problem. If Jacobs continues to struggle, the Packers have a talented rusher waiting in the wings. Lloyd could begin to garner more touches if he can solve his fumbling woes.
Jacobs is certainly in a better offensive environment as opposed to last year, but it’s uncertain if he’s playing behind a better run-blocking offensive line. Given all the concerns, it’s best to pass on Jacobs in drafts and look elsewhere for running backs.
Jacksonville Jaguars - Travis Etienne
JAC PFF RBLK Grade: 31st
Etienne RYOE Finish: 42nd
Etienne is coming off his best season as a professional. With a career-high 11 rushing touchdowns, he went on to finish as the overall RB3.
62-YARD TRAVIS ETIENNE TOUCHDOWNpic.twitter.com/ZmTrdRYYMw
— BetMGM 🦁 (@BetMGM) December 31, 2023
It was an impressive performance, especially when you consider the play of Jacksonville’s offensive line. It struggled mightily with run blocking all year. The Jaguars have done their best to address the problem this offseason. The club signed former Buffalo Bills center Mitch Morse to a two-year, $10.5 million contract in free agency. They also signed guard Ezra Cleveland to a three-year, $24 million deal. Jacksonville is banking on these additions fixing its ground attack.
As a result of the poor offensive line, Etienne saw a major drop in efficiency. He went from averaging 5.1 yards per carry (YPC) in 2022 to a meager 3.78 last year. However, not all of Etienne’s struggles can be blamed on the offensive line. He struggled to create yards on his own and actively regressed in RYOE. Etienne had a horrific showing after finishing second in RYOE in 2022.
Ultimately, all of that didn’t matter as Etienne still finished 2023 as the overall RB3. There is really no competition to threaten Etienne for touches. Jacksonville reportedly wants to involve second-year player Tank Bigsby more in the offense. Based on his 2023, though, it’s hard to see that happening.
Every Tank Bigsby target from 2023 pic.twitter.com/3y4yJDZ9qA
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) June 15, 2024
Perhaps we just need to chalk up Etienne’s decline in efficiency as nothing more than a bad year. Despite all the concerns, Etienne’s standing as an RB1 is very secure. If Jacksonville has fixed its offensive line issues, there’s a decent chance we see an improvement in efficiency. Should that happen, his ceiling could be even higher than what we saw last year.
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