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Last year, Houston Texans rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud set the NFL on fire, taking Houston to the playoffs in his first NFL season. Indianapolis Colts rookie Anthony Richardson dealt with injuries all year but was impressive in the time he was on the field.
But not every rookie quarterback was good in 2023. Some played extensive snaps and struggled. Some didn't play at all.
Below are the second-year QBs who are set to bust in 2024. I'm only looking at the QBs drafted in the first four rounds of last year's draft.
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Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers
I expect improvement from Bryce Young in 2024, but I don't expect him to improve to the level that reflects his pre-2023 hype. The former Alabama star looked lost at times in 2023, completing under 60% of his pass attempts with 11 touchdowns and 10 interceptions in 16 starts. He was sacked 62 times, losing a league-high 477 yards on sacks.
2nd and 7
Down 7. Two minutes to go.
“Let’s see what Bryce Young can do.”
Instant sack as soon as he hits his back foot pic.twitter.com/SB6iwpj8zq
— Josh Norris (@JoshNorris) November 26, 2023
Usually, I don't put much stock into concerns about a quarterback's size. Remember all that controversy about Joe Burrow's small hands? A lot of people were like, "he can't be good because of those tiny hands," but my thought process was that if a physical feature of a player was going to be an issue, a team wouldn't use the No. 1 pick on that player.
Likewise, Kyler Murray had size concerns, but his issues in the NFL haven't had much to do with his height. He just can't stay healthy.
While Young's slight frame alone doesn't prevent him from being a good NFL quarterback, it does impact how the team has to scheme things up for him. He's not going to survive the kind of beatings he took in 2023 when he was hit the sixth most of any quarterback.
If he's going to be successful in the NFL, he needs to get the ball out faster. Young doesn't have the build to be a guy who stands back there and holds onto the football.
Young needs to use his legs more to escape pressure. In 2023, 21 quarterbacks had 20 or more scrambles, and Young ranked fifth among those players in yards per scramble. However, he ranked 10th overall in scrambles. If Young is not going to get the ball out immediately, then that scramble number needs to go up, especially considering how this offensive line allowed so much pressure in 2023.
The other issue is that Young has to connect with his receivers. Out of 32 qualifying passers last season, Young had the highest bad throw percentage at 21.5%. No one else was over 20%. He had the sixth-worst on-target percentage. Simply put, he was not good at throwing the football compared to most of the other starting QBs.
The good news on that front is that the Panthers worked to improve his weapons this offseason. That might not necessarily help his passes get where they're supposed to more accurately, but it does mean some of those off-target throws might still convert into completions more often.
The team brought in Diontae Johnson, a receiver who is no stranger to thriving despite middling QB play. Johnson had 1,161 receiving yards in 2021 while playing with an over-the-hill Ben Roethlisberger. Add in the upside of rookie Xavier Legette and the veteran savviness of Adam Thielen, and the weapons are there for Young to make strides in 2024.
Still, even making some strides won't make him a starting fantasy QB overnight. His struggles as a passer and the fact that he didn't produce the kind of rushing numbers you expect from a QB with his build shows that he's improving from a flawed base. Many of his flaws are still going to show up in 2024.
Will Levis, Tennessee Titans
I mentioned Young's on-target percentage above. Want to know who had the lowest on-target percentage in 2023? If you guessed Will Levis, you'd be right. Just 67.1% of his passes were on target, making him the only qualifying QB below 70% in that stat.
There was a decent amount of hype around Levis last year because he looked incredible against the Falcons in his NFL debut, going 19-of-29 for 238 yards and four touchdowns. But if we look beyond that one game, the numbers get fairly dire.
Turnover-worthy throw vs actual interception rates. Above the line means “unlucky”, vice versa for names below
Will Levis chucking rocks into the ocean pic.twitter.com/ERfIdNK3MC
— Football Insights 📊 (@fball_insights) February 8, 2024
Ignoring his start against the Texans, where he was knocked out after six pass attempts, the seven-game sample after the Atlanta game is just not very good. Levis completed 58.2% of his passes in that span, with four touchdowns and four interceptions. He was sacked 25 times, putting him on a full-season pace for 61 sacks.
The Titans are turning the offense over to Levis full-time in 2024 and there's a chance that this is a complete disaster. Derrick Henry is gone and while the duo of Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears is a really strong one-two punch at running back, they aren't Henry.
Having the best between-the-tackles runner in the NFL allowed Tennessee to get away without elite quarterback play in the past. That's no longer the case.
Sure, the Titans adding Calvin Ridley was a great move. Having Ridley and DeAndre Hopkins as wide receivers makes this the best Titans receiving unit since at least 2019 when A.J. Brown and Corey Davis each had over 900 yards. Still, you could argue that's just an attempt to wallpaper over things.
Levis has a lot of issues with accuracy that need to be fixed, and there's no guarantee those issues will improve in his second NFL season.
Hendon Hooker, Detroit Lions
Now, we get into the players who aren't set to start in 2024. I promise I'll keep these a little shorter, starting with Hendon Hooker. Hooker was recovering from an ACL tear and missed most of his rookie season. He was active as the emergency third QB at the end of the regular season and in the playoffs, but Hooker never actually saw the field.
The Lions will hope he won't see the field in 2024, either. Jared Goff has established himself as a top 15-ish quarterback, and the Lions will lean on him in 2024. Hooker still has to beat Nate Sudfeld out for the backup role to even have a chance of sniffing the field in the event of a Goff injury.
Jake Haener, New Orleans Saints
Jake Haener is the Saints backup for now, but he hasn't impressed in that role. Spencer Rattler could still beat him out for the role. Even if Haener does enter 2024 as the backup, he's unlikely to be in the team's long-term plans.
Stetson Bennett, Los Angeles Rams
It's been a rocky preseason for Stetson Bennett, who tossed four interceptions against the Cowboys and then added another against the Chargers. He's behind Matthew Stafford and Jimmy Garoppolo on the team's depth chart and doesn't look to be anything more than a career backup in the NFL.
Aidan O'Connell, Las Vegas Raiders
Alright, after three players in a row who didn't take a snap as a rookie, we conclude with someone who surprisingly started 10 games as a rookie. After the Jimmy G. experiment failed, the Raiders were forced to turn to a fourth-round rookie quarterback, and he was...fine.
"(Coaches) understand things that the most fanatical fan might not."
Despite many in #RaiderNation seeing 'more ceiling' in Aidan O'Connell, Gardner Minshew is now their QB1.
Even so, most of the fanbase's faith in Antonio Pierce's #Raiders seems unshaken by the decision. @KTNV pic.twitter.com/xfOXfzi55C
— Nick Walters (@nickwalt) August 20, 2024
O'Connell went 5-5 as the starter, completing 62.1% of his passes for 2,218 yards with 12 touchdowns and seven interceptions. He wasn't setting the world on fire, but he was giving the team solid snaps from the most important position in football.
But in 2024, the Raiders are set to start Gardner Minshew II at quarterback instead of O'Connell. If you're a Superflex dynasty manager who thought you stumbled into a decent play with O'Connell, it's now delayed for at least a little while because of the decision by the Raiders to start Minshew.
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