RADIO
Snap counts are not the be-all-end-all for fantasy production but they paint a clear picture with the necessary context. Every snap is an opportunity for a player to make his presence felt and if their snaps go up or down, you get an idea of what the team thinks of their skill set. A running back can have all the rushing talent in the world, but if he can't catch the ball or is useless in pass protection, their snaps will not reflect that talent.
We do not have much of a sample for rising or falling snaps but for the sake of trying to identify worthwhile trends early, that's the basis we will use. Snap% listed reflects a player's usage in Week 4 contests.
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Rising Snaps
TE Noah Fant DEN (93%)
Noah Fant is having an odd season thus far. The targets are there (27) and so are the TDs (two) but woof, his efficiency is ATROCIOUS. Fant's 5.8 yards-per-target rank 4th-worst among TEs with at least 15 targets. He isn't the most reliable TE, but with the ball in his hands, he's been one of the most lethal in recent years.
Nevertheless, his snap-share is as good as it gets and has risen in each week while TE2 Albert Okwuegbunam's have dipped. Week 4 was the first time in Fant's career that his snaps exceeded 90% and given the injuries to Denver's offense, he may continue to play roughly as much to have some form of weaponry on the field.
Fant's 10 targets in Week 4 were a season-high and he is likely playing with 2020 starter Drew Lock again in Week 5. A possible jump in efficiency is possible if Lock targets Fant in the intermediate-to-deep sector occasionally.
RB Latavius Murray (62%)
With Ty'Son Williams as a healthy scratch and Latavius Murray now a month into his new organization, the Ravens' backfield has cleared up. Le'Veon Bell saw an increased role after working with the practice squad, however he didn't come close to Murray's workload.
Game script favored the run in Week 4 given the Ravens' double-digit lead and should continue with their dominant offense, but in games where they may trail, Bell or any other receiver with a better receiving profile than Murray should be expected to cut in. Murray is "the guy" by all means as he is still a capable RB and trusted by the staff.
The possibility remains that Ty'Son Williams plays himself back into a role with the offense, which would hurt, but it likely takes a Murray injury for him to return to relevance.
RB Leonard Fournette (82%)
Leonard Fournette only played this much due to Giovani Bernard's absence, but given that Ronald Jones II was active as well, it is telling that Fournette is the lead early-down back by all means. Outside of Week 1's fumble, RoJo had been within relative reach of Fournette's snaps. SNF was closer than expected between Tampa and New England and the rush was working but it was all Fournette (25-6 opportunity advantage over RoJo).
Fournette is a locked-in Flex at worst moving forward as he is the lead back in one of the league's best offenses. Despite RoJo stealing a TD in Week 4, you can safely assume that Fournette is the goal line back as he has 7 carries to Jones's 3 (neither have a rush inside of 5 yards).
Falling Snaps
RB Chris Carson SEA (45%)
Chris Carson has now played fewer than 50% of Seattle's snaps in back-to-back games. Week 3 was acceptable given that they were trailing by multiple scores and wanted a 3rd-down back in, but Week 4 was puzzling despite Carson's inefficiency. The neck injury explains enough and despite it sounding worrisome, he should be fine. Carson notoriously plays through injuries and will be active if he's anywhere close to ready.
RB Myles Gaskin MIA (23%)
This is not a huge shocker (to me), but to the general public who drafted him in Round 5 this past offseason, Gaskin's diminished snaps and mere two touches in Week 4 are a sign of the apocalypse. In conjunction, Malcolm Brown's snaps have risen as the team is desperate for pass protection. Gaskin is a liability while Brown is a stalwart who, in 2020 with the Rams, fended off explosive rookie Cam Akers and recent breakout Darrell Henderson.
Gaskin remains a good scatback with some rushing upside but as long as the Dolphins' offensive line remains a disaster, his production will be capped. The Dolphins will likely play him more in games where they lead (few-and-far-between) along with neutral game scripts but when trailing, expect a ton of Brown and little Gaskin.
WR Parris Campbell IND (44%)
Parris Campbell is an unfortunate figure. He has a ton of speed and general talent but can't seem to stay healthy. His knee sprain last season was severe enough to keep him out for 14 games and this year, a surprise abdominal injury hit in Week 2. Curious enough, his snaps in Week 3 were a season-high at 80%, then dipped to 44% in Week 4. His targets only dipped by one, but it is still concerning given that Mo Alie-Cox had a breakout performance on the year with two TD in their first win.
Michael Pittman Jr. and Zach Pascal played more than 80% each while Alie-Cox and the TEs had a larger role as the team went 12-personnel at a season-high. This is all bad news for Campbell, who can still be an effective player, but is untrustworthy for the sake of fantasy. He can be safely dropped.
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