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Kev Mahserejian analyzes NFL snap counts and usage from last week to find fantasy football risers and fallers for Week 15 and beyond. These RBs, WRs and TEs could be sleepers or busts moving forward.
Snap counts are not the be-all-end-all for fantasy production, but they paint a clear picture with the necessary context. Every snap is an opportunity for a player to make his presence felt and if their snaps go up or down, you get an idea of what the team thinks of their skill set. A running back can have all the rushing talent in the world, but if he can't catch the ball or is useless in pass protection, his snaps will not reflect that talent.
We do not have much of a sample for rising or falling snaps but for the sake of trying to identify worthwhile trends early, that's the basis we will use. Snap% listed reflects a player's usage in Week 14 contests.
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Rising Snap Counts for Fantasy Football
Hunter Renfrow, WR, LV (72%>74%>92%>94% snaps)
Hunter Renfrow is good and we just have to deal with it. Everyone likes to point to his physique compared to his chiseled athletes but at the end of the day, he can play.
Renfrow is a precise route-runner whose chemistry with QB Derek Carr is impeccable. So good in fact that Renfrow is a WR1 this season sitting at WR12 overall and WR15 in PPG. The recent stretch with Darren Waller (knee) out has certainly been a boost and should continue to provide opportunities as Waller remains out of practice.
Renfrow is a locked-and-loaded starter barring injury throughout the fantasy playoffs.
Rashaad Penny, RB, SEA (0%>41%>57% snaps)
Rashaad Penny has finally emerged. Despite his lackluster, injury-filled career up until this point, he has the size, speed, talent, and most importantly, opportunity to perform as a high-end RB option.
Penny is fully healthy at the moment and put his chops on full display in Week 14 though a necessary caveat is that he faced a lowly Texans' rush defense. Nevertheless, Penny's trusted with the lead role. Playing in Seattle's offense takes some of the pressure off as defenses primarily focus on the elite duo of DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett.
While Penny can be started in Week 15, the matchup vs the rival LA Rams is not ideal as they rank 2nd in rush defense by DVOA and despite Penny's massive Week 14 involvement, he only saw one target. That could change by all means in a matchup that will be much closer (if not, playing from behind) but we have yet to see it. The Seahawks still rotate their RBs plenty and utilize backs like Travis Homer and DeeJay Dallas heavily in 3rd down/2-minute drill situations.
Given Penny's historically volatile health, he can be justifiably benched if you have a better option and re-inserted in lineups for Week 16 and 17 when the opponents are much, much lighter.
Rondale Moore, WR, ARI (33%>39%>43%>44% snaps)
Rondale Moore has seen his snaps fluctuate all season. While the general decrease relative to September is deserved, he could be in line for a significant boost now that DeAndre Hopkins is unlikely to play much going forward.
Moore remains a low-aDOT target for Kyler Murray but has the speed and receiving cops to play downfield. Whether the team has been saving that for the playoffs or end of the season is yet to be seen but it is certain that they have been conservative.
Moore can be added as a flyer for the time being but should not be started.
Falling Snap Counts for Fantasy Football
Noah Fant, TE, DEN (85%>75%>74% snaps)
Noah Fant's decline this season is disheartening, especially given the fact that he is fully healthy and still performing in this poor manner. An excuse can be made for his disappointing sophomore season due to a high-ankle sprain but now, Fant is nearly at an even share of snaps with Albert Okwuegbunam who is one year removed from a torn ACL!
Fant has exactly 4 targets in 4 of the last 5 games and has the lowest aDOT and yards-per-target of his career. While some blame may be placed on limited QB Teddy Bridgewater, Fant is not breaking tackles or creating YAC like he used to.
He can still be started given the lack of options at TE and his ok floor but the upside that many imagined coming into the season is fairly far gone.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling, WR, GB (81%>70%>66% snaps)
Marquez Valdes-Scantling surprisingly was not as involved in Week 14 as expected despite Randall Cobb's (core) absence. MVS saw 19 targets between Weeks 12 and 13 but that dropped to 5 in a game Aaron Rodgers threw 37 times. Allen Lazard stepped into Cobb's slot role and was targeted the second-most (7) of any Packers' receiver.
Per usual, it is tough to start MVS outside of a pinch.
Gerald Everett, TE, SEA (86%>79%>77%>62% snaps)
Gerald Everett is losing snaps to fellow TE Will Dissly but at least he seems to remain heavily involved in the offense as the primary receiving TE. This week, Everett faces his former team the LA Rams for the first time given that he missed their initial matchup this season due to injury. While "revenge game" narratives often fall flat, Pete Carroll is the kind of coach to make this sort of thing a point of emphasis.
Over the past 5 games, Everett is averaging 5.8 targets which are enough to consider him a start in fantasy for Week 15.
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