RADIO
The NFL season is half over and the fantasy season is nearing its trade deadline. It’s at this point fantasy owners need to make moves to set themselves up for success down the stretch. We’ve seen which NFL teams are for more or less good and bad, and which players have changed their standing since the start of the season. For fantasy owners, we need to determine which NFL offenses we are putting our roster spots and ultimately fantasy futures behind.
Two surprising units thus far have both been the Carolina Panthers and Seattle Seahawks. Prior to the season, the Panthers and Seahawks both were thought to be two of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. They both have surprised, especially the Panthers, who have outperformed expectations by leaps and bounds and have developed into one of the best offensive lines in the NFL right now.
Will the Panthers be able to keep their momentum going or will that offensive line that has been so productive so far in 2018 turn into the line we all thought to start the season? Can the Seahawks keep Russell Wilson upright long enough for him to continue to make plays downfield? Those questions answered and more below.
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Offensive Line to Watch - Carolina Panthers
One of the biggest surprises of the 2018 season in terms of offensive line play has been the Carolina Panthers. Heading into 2018, the Panthers were considered to have one of the worst offensive lines in all of the NFL. Add to that they lost both starting tackles early in the preseason with both Matt Kalil and Daryl Williams heading to IR. Taylor Moton has stepped in beautifully and has found a home at right tackle. He’s currently grading out at the number 8 tackle according to Pro Football Focus with a 78.9 overall grade. He has especially excelled in pass protection earning an 80.8 grade which is in the top-15 of all tackles. His pass protection, along with the protection from the remainder of his linemates was on display on this 2nd and long play from their own goalline. The Panthers drop Cam Newton straight back and the line holds up well so Cam can deliver a strike for a first down.
The remainder of the offensive line has been above average in pass protection as well. Even though Trai Turner is having a down year after coming back from injury, he is still playing well in pass protection grading out at a 74.3 according to Pro Football Focus. Greg Van Roten at left guard is also grading above average (71.6) in pass protection. Clearly it does help to have Cam Newton in the backfield as he is able to avoid taking sacks, but their 5.2% adjusted sack rate is top-10 in the NFL. The line as a unit shows its worth in this clip as they pick up a blitz from the Ravens’ linebacker and allow Cam to step up and deliver another big completion.
Not only has the line been impressive pass blocking, but they’ve been much better as run blockers than initially thought. They are currently 8th in adjusted line yards from Football Outsiders at 4.67 yards per carry. The Panthers have also done a good job of staying on schedule with their runs as they rank 9th in “Stuffed” percentage with only 17.9% of runs going for zero or negative yardage. This allows for the Panthers offense to stay in front of the sticks and use some of their exotic looks like having both CJ Anderson and Christian McCaffrey in the backfield at the same time. This is one of those situations where Anderson is in the backfield and McCaffrey is in motion. The line is able to get some horizontal movement to create a natural cut back lane for Anderson on the zone run.
Fantasy Impact
Trust: Christian McCaffrey
McCaffrey’s usage has been fairly consistent this season with just one game under 15 touches so far in 2018. He was no doubt been a factor in the passing game with at least four receptions in all but one game as well. Even with the great usage, his rushing totals have been lackluster, but expect those to start to spike with match-ups against the Bucs, Steelers, and Lions in three of his next games. Expect CMC to be a low-end RB1 in PPR leagues going forward.
Pick Up/Acquire: DJ Moore
Moore’s role in the Panthers’ offense has expanded over the past few weeks with at least five targets in each of his last three games. Moore has also seen a carry in three of his last four games, adding to his floor with some rushing production. He also saw an increase in snap count from around 30 snaps in Weeks 3-7 to 46 in Week 8. If Torrey Smith continues to miss time Moore should be guaranteed play time. He can be considered a flex option, and better this week against a bad Tampa Bay defense.
Offensive Line to Watch - Seattle Seahawks
Most fantasy football players scoffed at the notion that a run-based offense in 2018 could work, but the Seattle Seahawks have been able to do just that. Seattle’s offensive line was an abomination in 2017, ranking 31st in adjusted line yards and dead last “Stuffed” percentage. Turn the page to 2018 and the offensive line has become a respectable group once again. They are now 14th in adjusted line yards and 6th in “Stuffed” percentage. The overall group is not grading that favorably in run blocking according to Pro Football Focus with just one player (Duane Brown) grading above a 60. Even with their individual performance not equating to massive successes, as a unit they have been fairly impressive. On this run, there is not a ton of movement, but the line is able to keep a hat on a hat so Chris Carson can eventually find a hole for a good gain.
This group is performing much better in terms of pass blocking. Four of the five starters are currently grading above a 70 in pass protection according to PFF. The only one how has not surpassed this threshold is center Justin Britt, who is currently ranked 31st among all centers. The guards next to Britt are both in the 60s among guards (DJ Fluker 65th and J.R. Sweezy 68th), but this group has been better than 2017 for sure. In these next two clips, Russell Wilson does not have any real pressure in his face and is allowed to make some clean pocket throws. In the first clip, Wilson is given a clean pocket which lets him survey the field. After being unable to find anyone open, Wilson then spins out and backward to provide himself more time to unload downfield. The interior three of Sweezy, Fluker, and Britt hold up against the interior pass rushers, giving Wilson no pressure in his face.
This next clip the Seahawks give Wilson time to take a deep drop-back on 2nd and 19. Wilson can stand in the pocket with some slight movement as both tackles do a good job building a pocket. Duane Brown looks like his dominating self, stonewalling the pass rusher.
Even though some of the metrics are not favorable for this group, they have been able to stick to their game plan of running the football to set up the play-action passing game. Russell Wilson is back to his efficient self in the passing game, and the running game has been a dominant force over the last few weeks.
Fantasy Impact
Hold: Chris Carson
We all saw flashes of what Chris Carson could be in 2017 prior to his injury. Now he’s healthy in 2018 and scoring fantasy points in bunches. Besides the Seahawks’ Week 6 victory over the Raiders, Carson has at least 19 carries in each of his last three games with at least 102 rushing yards and a touchdown in two of three games. In tighter match-ups, expect Carson to continue to shoulder the load and produce at a high-end RB2 level.
Sell: Tyler Lockett
It’s been amazing how Lockett continues to find the end zone despite no game over seven targets this season. The volume has to be concerning for fantasy owners, so the choice is either to ride out the production and hope it continues or sell Lockett before his luck runs out for a more stable RB2 or WR2. The goal for the Seattle offense is to be run first and then use play-action, which can allow Lockett to get behind defenses, but you cannot expect that to continue to happen week in and week out.
Top Five Offensive Lines
1) New Orleans Saints
2) Los Angeles Rams
3) New England Patriots
4) Pittsburgh Steelers
5) Green Bay Packers
Bottom Five Offensive Lines
32) Buffalo Bills
31) New York Giants
30) Arizona Cardinals
29) Houston Texans
28) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
For any questions about offensive line play in the NFL, feel free to contact me @TheRealHalupka on Twitter.
