RADIO
Over a quarter of the way through the fantasy season and teams are starting to come into shape. You will know if your team is ready to contend or if you need some other pieces to get back into the win column. It’s time for fantasy owners to make moves to acquire players they believe will bounce back from early season struggles or buy high on players they think will continue their momentum.
Obviously a lot of factors go into players performing at a high level in fantasy, including the performance of the offensive line in front of them. Some offensive lines continue to impress like the Eagles and Saints, leading to some huge fantasy days for players like Alvin Kamara and Zach Ertz. These teams should continue to produce for their top fantasy assets, but there are some units that have struggled and impacted the fantasy assets for their teams like the Giants and Texans.
This week I’ll take a look at a match-up of two teams seemingly going in opposite directions in the Patriots and the Dolphins. Were the Dolphins first three weeks due to the level of competition, or is it something they can keep up for the whole season? Can the Patriots recover from a rough first few weeks to find their stride going forward with Sony Michel leading the way on the ground? Those questions and more answered below.
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Offensive Line to Watch - Miami Dolphins
What was one of the surprise teams to start the season, the Miami Dolphins are currently on a slippery slope back to mediocrity. Their first three wins against the Titans, Jets, and Raiders appear to be victories over two of the seven or eight worst teams in the NFL. Heading into their Week 4 matchup against the Patriots, Miami had to feel as if this was their Super Bowl. Unfortunately, their offense laid an egg against a suspect defense in a huge spot. Who was really to blame and what can we expect going forward from this team?
One major issue going forward for the Dolphins will be the number of injuries to their starters up front. Josh Sitton was expected to be one of the veteran leaders of this team and on the offensive line, but he was lost for the season after one game. Starting center Daniel Kilgore, who was acquired from the 49ers over the summer,is now lost for the season with a torn triceps. Veterans Travis Swanson at center and Ted Larsen at left guard will need to fill in for the remainder of the season. Larsen will be a clear step down from Sitton, even at Sitton’s advanced age.
Considering the losses up front, it’s no wonder that the Dolphins have turned away from the running game in favor of the short passing game this season. So far the offensive line ranks dead last in Power Success Rate (33%) according to Football Outsiders. This statistic is the measure of the percentage of runs from two yards or closer that were either converted for a first down or touchdown. The Dolphins simply have not been able to get the job done in these situations, leading to an increase in the passing game usage for their slot players like Jakeem Grant and Albert Wilson.
Luckily for the Dolphins, the performance from the offensive line in the passing game has been better than the running game. Tackles Laremy Tunsil and Ja’Wuan James have both been above average in the passing game, grading out each above a 72 according to Pro Football Focus. The rest of the offensive line has been better in pass protection as well than their run blocking, each grading out at least at 56.8 according to PFF. This has led to some early successes in the passing game with Ryan Tannehill throwing at least two touchdown passes in three of his first four games. Unfortunately, Week 4 was not as kind to Tannehill as he had missed on a variety of throws he’s made in previous weeks. He was very inaccurate in the screen game leading to a lack of yards after catch. Hopefully this is just a one week aberration for Tannehill in a tough spot on the road in New England.
Fantasy Impact
Cause for Concern: Kenyan Drake
I know this has been well documented, but Drake simply is not as vital of a part to this offense as he was during the end of the 2017 season. His snap count has dropped each week this season going from 46 in Week 1 to just 22 snaps in Week 4. The loss of starting guard Josh Sitton and center Dan Kilgore cannot be ignored either. There will not be as much running room in the middle of the offensive line going forward. Drake is at best a low-end Flex play, but would be better suited for the bench in most leagues.
Hold: Ryan Tannehill
This was just an off game for Tannehill. He was protected fairly well for most of the game, but just missed on his throws to nearly all of his WRs. He was extremely efficient in his other three outings this year with a completion rate of at least 71.4% in each outing until Week 4. He should bounce back against a Bengals secondary that just allowed speedster Calvin Ridley to light them up for two scores. Tannehill should be a safe SuperFlex or high-end QB2 going forward.
Offensive Line to Watch - New England Patriots
Over the last decade plus, the New England Patriots have been the model of consistency. They’ve been the AFC East champion in nine of the last ten seasons and the winningest NFL franchise of this century. Not everything has been so easy for Tom Brady and company. The Patriots are currently 15th in points per game at just under 24 per game, behind teams like the Cleveland Browns and Oakland Raiders. I can’t remember the last time the Patriots were behind the Browns in any offensive statistic. One of the units that have been failing this offense is the offensive line.
The Patriots’ line certainly has seen its share of struggles early this season, especially at the tackle position. Nate Solder was by no means an All-Pro type of player, but he provided some stability at the left tackle position. Trent Brown who is the new left tackle in New England after coming over from the 49ers has struggled mightily after an above average season a year ago. Brown’s 55.5 grade according to Pro Football Focus puts him 58th at the position, which safe to say, is not good. He’s struggled equally in the run and passing game, grading below a 60 for each skill.
Brown may not be long for the left side as his feet have typically not held up against speed rushers in his career and so far this season. Not only has Tom Brady’s blindside been a cause of concern, but Marcus Cannon needs to get back to his high level of play we are have been accustomed to seeing in the last two seasons. Cannon did miss all of Week 2, so he has been knocking off the rust over the last two weeks. He just has not been a consistent force in either the run or the pass game so far in 2018. Cannon has routinely been thrown from his run blocks against other down linemen due to some poor footwork. I have faith he will correct his issues and turn into a positive force instead of the 50th ranked offensive tackle in the NFL.
While the tackles have been an issue for the Patriots, the middle three of guards Shaq Mason and Joe Thuney and center David Andrews have been the glue that holds the line together. Mason and Thuney are both ranked in the top-20 guards according to PFF. They have both excelled in the passing game, grading out at 82.9 (Thuney) and 71.8 (Mason), and most importantly, played every snap so far this season. The two guards have helped the Patriots to the number two “Stuffed” rank according to Football Outsiders which measures the percentage of runs where the running back is tackled at or behind the line of scrimmage. They are able to provide an interior push to help propel the running game going forward. Expect to see these two continue to provide consistency in both the run and the pass game, making it hard for defenses to get pressure up the middle in Tom Brady’s face. We can’t forget about David Andrews, who is currently the number two ranked center according to Pro Football Focus, only behind the Eagles’ Jason Kelce. Andrews has been one of the best at the position over the last three seasons and should continue to be a strong contributor to spring runs for Sony Michel and James White going forward.
While this group is nowhere near the quality that it has been in previous seasons, the Patriots have enough talent, especially in the middle of the line to be able to keep Tom Brady clean and provide interior push in the running game.
Fantasy Impact
Trust: Sony Michel
With Rex Burkhead on IR, Michel should be the primary ball carrier going forward for the Pats. Let’s not overblow his performance from last week as there was certainly cause for concern. His between the tackles running left a lot to be desired, including a carry in which he ran into the back of a blocker and tackled himself. He is very effective on outside zone runs, but needs to improve in the middle of the line. He can be considered a solid RB2 going forward in any format.
Hold: Rob Gronkowski
Gronk has not been smashing very frequently since his Week 1 monster game, but help is on the way with Julian Edelman on his way back from suspension. Gronk should see more single coverage in the middle of the field going forward with Edelman able to take away some of the blanket coverages. Gronk should still be considered an elite fantasy asset and only traded for a RB1 or WR1 in any format.
Hold: Josh Gordon
Even though he only played 18 snaps in Week 4 against the Dolphins, you saw flashes of what makes Josh Gordon special. He had a nice catch and run on a hook after breaking a tackle. Gordon should start to ramp up his snap count and target share going forward. Players like Philip Dorsett and Chris Hogan will lose any target share and playing time as the season goes on. Will Gordon be consistent in New England, probably not, but he will have a game or two that will win you a fantasy week. Consider him a boom or bust WR3 for the next few weeks.
Top Five Offensive Lines
1) New Orleans Saints
2) Philadelphia Eagles
3) Los Angeles Rams
4) Denver Broncos
5) Jacksonville Jaguars
Bottom Five Offensive Lines
32) Buffalo Bills
31) Seattle Seahawks
30) New York Giants
29) Houston Texans
28) Arizona Cardinals
For any questions about offensive line play in the NFL, feel free to contact me @TheRealHalupka on Twitter.
