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Welcome to Week Three, where we finally have a pulse of how this season is shaping up. Today, we’re talking about some DFS props for the Week Three matchups on Sleeper.
Sleeper is my favorite platform for season-long fantasy and they have now added prop picks. These picks consist of selecting two or more players to go over or under their predicted yards, touchdowns, or receptions. I’m here to give you my selections for this week and beyond.
My name is Ellis Johnson and I have been writing for RotoBaller for four years. You can catch my weekly Fantasy Pie Shop articles on RotoBaller (trust me, it’s as fun as it sounds). RotoBaller is coming out with weekly DFS plays and lots of great analysis with their DFS pass. Be sure to check it out as the team has been crushing it so far this year! Now let's get to these Sleeper picks for today's games!
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D.J. Moore (WR, CHI)
Over 44.5 receiving yards, Bears @ Chiefs
This game is going to be a blood bath. I hope they aren’t allowing children into the stadium because this could get nasty. I’m sorry Bears fans, this won’t be a fun one.
Although I have been touted to be a Justin Fields “non-believer”, I think 44.5 yards for his top target is very low for how this game should end up. The Chiefs have averaged 223 passing yards against this season, which is slightly above Fields’ 2023 average.
The good news is that the Bears will be playing from behind early. Although no one wants to rely on Fields’ arm, they are going to have to this week. Moore’s 2023 average of 65 yards per game should hold true, easily surpassing the current prop line on Sleeper.
Alexander Mattison (RB, MIN)
Over 50.5 rushing yards, Chargers @ Vikings
In my opinion, this is the game of the week. Two explosive offenses, two poor defenses, with both teams staring down a 0-3 start, that’s fantasy gold. I already featured Mattison in the Pie Shop this week, but I also love this prop line.
The Chargers have been mediocre against the run this season, allowing 105 rushing yards per game. Last week, the Titans running backs alone managed 128 rushing yards in an overtime thriller. This is a make-or-break game for Mattison and the last chance he’ll have without Cam Akers threatening to take touches.
The X factor to this prop is this injured Vikings' offensive line. I know, how does this help Mattison? Well, I expect the Vikings will be forced to establish the run game in order for Kirk Cousins to succeed through the air. It’s a little narrative-driven, but if this team can’t run the ball, it’ll be the Chargers in the driver's seat to leave 1-2.
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James Conner (RB, ARI)
Under 55.5 rushing yards, Cardinals vs. Cowboys
This is another game that should require parental guidance for kids to watch. Dallas should continue to be on fire against a Cardinals offense that seemed to peak in the first half of Week Two.
Conner is having an impressive fantasy season, considering the team that he is working with. However, the Cowboys are averaging 44.5 rushing yards to the running back position through two games. That’s the second-best in the league and they faced Saquon Barkley and Breece Hall through two weeks.
This is not a great game for Conner, so I expect he’ll have more receiving usage than usual. If Barkley and Hall couldn’t get it done against this defense, it’s a safe bet that neither will James Conner.
Jared Goff (QB, DET)
Under 267.5 passing yards, Falcons @ Lions
Atlanta is a nightmare matchup for opposing QBs. What’s interesting is that it’s not necessarily because their defense has been shut down, instead it’s their offense. This team has a run first, run second, run third, rinse-repeat, approach to football.
Although you would think this wouldn't be successful, Arthur Smith is a run-scheme savant. This style severely limits the amount of plays the other team can run. Plus this defense has two stars in their secondary with corner A.J. Terrell and safety Jessie Bates.
Especially if Amon-Ra St. Brown is hobbled with a toe injury, it’s a big ask for Goff to have nearly 300 passing yards in a game where he’ll touch the ball half as many times as usual. The Falcons may be boring, but they’re the real deal. I’m fading this Lions pass attack completely.
If you are to package these props, you will receive 10.1x your money. That’s a pretty penny if you ask me. Thank you for checking out my work, be sure to watch for the Pie Shop each week as well!
Disclaimer: Please gamble responsibly. I am writing this as a thought-provoking guide that can hopefully help individuals make their own decisions.
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