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Ellis' favorite Sunday prop bets on Sleeper. This week he has selected five picks for the early slate of games. Use Ellis' picks to win money on Sleeper!
It’s Halloween week and I have a treat for spooky season. This season, there have been a few costumes deceiving fantasy players. From the Steelers managing to have a winning record (again) to Brock Purdy changing into a pumpkin, it’s tough in the streets out there.
Last week, we dropped two prop articles and finished 7-4 on our selections, building on our 23-16 total. In light of the World Series, if we can manage to start hitting above 500, I’d be very happy. I’m hoping we can find some gems in this early slate of games.
My name is Ellis Johnson and I have been writing for RotoBaller for four years. You can catch my weekly Fantasy Pie Shop articles on RotoBaller (trust me, it’s as fun as it sounds). RotoBaller is coming out with weekly DFS plays and lots of great analysis with their DFS pass. Be sure to check it out as the team has been crushing it so far this year!
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Isiah Pacheco (RB, KC)
Over 53.5 rushing yards, Dolphins @ Chiefs (Germany)
Pacheco has really come on this season, consistently producing for fantasy purposes. Although last week was a write-off, it’s not often this Chiefs team is going to be playing from behind all game.
This week, he faces the Dolphins in Germany. As much as I want this matchup to be a boat race between two great offenses, I expect the Chiefs will want to control the clock and rely on their stellar defense. Whether their defense can slow down this Dolphins team is left unknown.
Either way, I expect them to try to run the ball a lot and find success. The Dolphins' defense is allowing the seventh-most rushing yards per game to the running back position. Plus, with Jalen Ramsey back and Xavien Howard waiting in the wings, someone other than Travis Kelce will have to make plays. Pacheco should get enough volume to find 54 yards on the ground this week.
Mark Andrews (TE, BAL)
Over 50.5 receiving yards, Seahawks @ Ravens
The tight end position has been relatively quiet this season, despite Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews continuing to find success. This season, Andrews has four or more receptions in every game and continues to be Lamar Jackson’s top target. Quick side note, we need to appreciate how unbelievable Lamar has been playing. He has looked amazing as a passer and should be favored for MVP over Tua Tagovailoa in my opinion.
Anyways, Andrews is going to find over 50 yards in this game. We have a heater here with the Ravens taking on a Seahawks team that squeaked out a win against another AFC North opponent. Unfortunately for Seattle, they're allowing the third-most yards per game to the TE position and now face Andrews. I expect Lamar will be looking to his top target a lot this game, making both the over 4.5 receptions and over 50.5 yards in play.
Mike Evans and Chris Godwin (WR, TB)
Over 52.5 and Over 57.5 rushing and receiving yards (respectively), Buccaneers @ Texans
You bet your boots I’m doubling up on this Buccaneers receiving core. This should be a really fun game between two teams that have found big play success all season. Both Baker Mayfield and C.J. Stroud are projected to each have 240 passing yards, setting the stage for a gun-slinging showdown.
Plus, these defenses are equally mediocre. These teams are allowing the seventh and eighth-most yards per game to the WR position. The Buccaneers' passing game is quite concentrated between Godwin, Evans, and Rachaad White. As a result, unless one pops off for 200 yards, Godwin and Evans should find their way to ~60 yards comfortably.
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Bijan Robinson (RB, ATL)
Over 58.5 rushing yards, Vikings @ Falcons
I really like the Falcons' side of the ball in this game. I was close to choosing Taylor Heinicke over 214.5 passing yards; however, I think there is a world where this Falcons defense locks down Jaren Hall and Arthur Smith runs out the clock. Additionally, there is not a line available at the time of writing this for Kyle Pitts' yards or receptions, but I am eyeing the over for when those are released. Since Week 3, the Vikings have allowed two touchdowns per game to the TE position.
Anyway, I selected the Robinson over rushing yards as, once again, I can see this defense shutting down Hall from the start. Robinson has received 10 or more carries in every healthy game so far and this Vikings team is allowing the ninth-most rushing yards to the position. I don't know about you, but that sounds like the recipe for a big Bijan week to me.
This might be the first time we see Bijan Robinson take on a workload in a positive game script. He should easily see enough volume and has all the talent to reach 60 rushing yards in this matchup. Then again, this is Arthur Smith we are talking about...
Thanks for reading. Check out my prop picks for the Sunday games later this week!
Disclaimer: Please gamble responsibly. I am writing this as a thought-provoking guide that can hopefully help individuals make their own decisions.
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