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Welcome to our Sleeper NFL DFS prop picks for Week 12 Sunday Night Football: Ravens vs. Chargers. Our SNF picks are 10-14 this season. Let’s sweep the board this week.
Sleeper offers some of the best and easiest-to-win NFL DFS games in the industry. Sleeper DFS works just like regular player prop betting -- there are no large-field tournaments to get lost in. You're not playing against other people; you're just playing against the projections. Here are a few of our favorite prop picks for SNF on Sleeper DFS.
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NFL DFS Props - Over/Under Picks for Week 12 Sunday Night Football
Lamar Jackson OVER 43.5 Rushing Yards
Jackson enters Week 12 as the QB5, buoyed by a healthy rushing floor. The 26-year-old is averaging 48.6 rushing yards per game this season, which is actually his lowest per-game average since his rookie season. With his favorite target Mark Andrews out for the season with an ankle injury, Jackson’s rushing totals should trend closer to his career average of 61.4 yards per game going forward.
Jackson matches up with the Chargers this week, a defense giving up the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season. The Ravens offense has a significant advantage in this game, ranking fourth in offensive DVOA compared to a Chargers team ranking 29th in defensive DVOA.
In a game tied for the highest over/under of the week (48.5), expect Jackson and the 3-point favorite Ravens to overpower the Chargers on the ground on Sunday.
Isaiah Likely OVER 30.5 Receiving Yards
This pick is another consequence of the Mark Andrews injury and a good buy-low opportunity before we see Likely’s usage as Baltimore’s new TE1.
In three career games Likely has played without Andrews in the lineup, the second-year tight end is averaging 6.6 targets and 43.7 receiving yards. The 6.1 vacated targets per game that Andrews brought will no doubt be dispersed across the offense, but Likely has proven he can command the middle of the field in the Pro Bowler’s absence.
The Chargers have given up the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends this season, and starting tight ends have averaged 75 receiving yards against them over the last five weeks. Expect closer to 40 receiving yards for Likely on Sunday night.
Quentin Johnston OVER 2.5 Receptions
There is no doubt that Johnston has not lived up to his first-round draft pedigree so far in his rookie campaign. With injuries depleting the Chargers receiving corps, however, Johnston will continue to garner steady targets in a pass funnel offense that leads the NFL in passing yardage per game by over 20 yards.
Over his last four contests, Johnston has averaged 4.75 targets, 3.25 receptions, and 29.75 receiving yards. His share of targets and air yards in recent weeks has shown Johnston is a heavy part of the Chargers' passing gameplan. Without many other receiving weapons outside of star receiver Keenan Allen, that should only continue.
PFF shows a 65% likelihood of this prop hitting. Rotoballer's Proptimizer tool agrees with the over, giving it an 18.5% edge with a Sharp App projected line of 3.7 receptions.
Be sure to also check out our brand new PrizePicks Optimizer tool and the free PrizePicks DFS Props Tool to see more recommended picks.
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