Week 10 NFL DFS Prop Picks for MNF - Over/Under Prop Picks on Sleeper.com

Welcome to our Sleeper NFL DFS prop picks for Week 10 Monday Night Football: Broncos vs. Bills. We swept the board with last week’s MNF picks, going 3-0. That brings our season record to 13-5 (72%).

Sleeper offers some of the best and easiest-to-win NFL DFS games in the industry. Sleeper DFS works just like regular player prop betting -- there are no large-field tournaments to get lost in. You're not playing against other people; you're just playing against the projections. Here are a few of our favorite prop picks for MNF on Sleeper DFS.

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NFL DFS Props - Over/Under Picks for Week 10 Monday Night Football

Josh Allen UNDER 310.5 Passing and Rushing Yards

Betting against Josh Allen is not normally a smart move, but here is why fading him might be just that this week. Allen’s combined passing and rushing yardage prop is a high 310.5 in Week 10, a mark he has only reached once in his last four games. 

A key for Buffalo will be getting the running game going against a Denver team giving up the most rushing yards per game this season (154.1). The Broncos will look to slow the game down as they have all season, averaging the lowest number of offensive plays of any team in the NFL. The Bills are 19th in this category. Allen's nagging shoulder injury has also been noticeable and may play a role in the team being more conservative with their star QB if they jump out to a lead. 

The Proptimizer outlines a 38% edge on this prop going under based on a Sharp App projected line of 270.9 combined yards. Expect a methodical game with fewer-than-normal passing attempts for Allen. Sleeper DFS has taken down his passing yardage prop, but this would be another prop to fade under 275.5 if it becomes available again before kickoff.

Gabriel Davis OVER 2.5 Receptions

Davis has shown his boom-or-bust tendencies in recent weeks for the Bills, failing to make a single catch last week after a nine catch, 87 yards, and one touchdown performance a week prior. His inconsistency thus far translates into a conservative 2.5 receptions prop in Week 10, a mark he has reached in four of his last six contests.

This week also presents a matchup opportunity. The Broncos have played zone coverage 77% of the time this year. Davis has been much more effective against zone this year, ranking 35th among receivers in fantasy points per route run against zone coverage while landing 88th in that same category against man coverage. 

Davis is also likely to spend more of his night lined up against CB Fabian Moreau and his below-average 58 defensive grade according to PFF, with Stefon Diggs drawing more attention from standout CB Patrick Surtain II.

Javonte Williams UNDER 16.5 Receiving Yards

Williams has been steadily improving in his comeback from a season-ending knee injury in 2022, including consistent ramp-up in snaps the last three weeks that has resulted in back-to-back 80-yard rushing games. 

Despite the improvement in his contribution to the run game, Williams has continued to cede third-down snaps and passing game work to fellow RBs Jaleel McLaughlin and Samaje Perine. The third-year back has only reached 17 receiving yards or more once this season, which came in Week 3’s historic 70-20 loss to the Dolphins.

Williams will undoubtedly continue to make an impact for Denver on the ground, but his passing game efforts will likely continue to be limited.

Be sure to also check out our brand new PrizePicks Optimizer tool and the free PrizePicks DFS Props Tool to see more recommended picks.

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