Welcome to our Sleeper NBA DFS prop picks for Wednesday, May 1. Excluding garbage time options, you can maybe bet on 34 players for tonight’s two-game slate.
Playoffs minimalize rotations, but it hasn’t led to a ton of overs being hit outside of superstar talent. Malik Beasley, Bogdan Bogdanovic, and Duncan Robinson have all seen their minutes disappear due to poor shooting and are just three of a few players whose playing time is entirely dictated by immediate production. Robinson, Daniel Gafford, Amir Coffey, and Kevin Love should all play tonight, but their minutes aren’t guaranteed by any means.
Coffey and Gafford will both start, but unless Coffey is providing quality spacing, he’ll get pulled quickly for Norman Powell, and if Gafford isn’t playing well off of Luka Doncic, he won’t see more than 20 minutes again. In the other game, Miami is a mess offensively and playing with their backs against the wall. Each night is just whatever chaos "makes-ball-go-in," and only Erik Spoelstra knows whether that is going to involve Robinson or Love.
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NBA DFS Props - Over/Under Picks for Wednesday, May 1
P.J. Washington OVER 10.5 Points
Doncic said he wanted to provide more help to Kyrie Irving after losing Game 4, and imagining Doncic playing with a chip on his shoulder is a scary thought. We know this means Doncic is going to do more in isolation, but as a natural passer, he’s going to find one of his favorite only options. P.J. Washington has excelled since joining Dallas, and although we haven’t seen any of his signature big games like we did in Charlotte, the potential is absolutely there. Irving and Doncic need more help, and Washington is that third option.
His primary role alongside Derrick Jones Jr. is defense, but it’s clear the Mavericks aren’t winning on the backs of two players. Washington is taking no fewer than nine shots a game and as long as he’s taking that many attempts, the over is an easy take. Scoring 20 points on 19 attempts across two games is terrible efficiency, but it’s also understandable for a player to need that multiple-game adjustment period playing in the playoffs for the first time.
Norman Powell OVER 11.5 Points
Powell provides everything you need out of a sixth man. He’s an explosive scorer and provides plenty of defense for a bench option. There’s a reason why he’s playing 30 minutes a game, and after being one of the only bright spots in Game 3, his usage is only going to keep going up. Without Kawhi Leonard, Powell’s been bumped into a more demanding role and the Clippers don’t have many options to work with. James Harden is conducting the offense, but Powell creates his own gravity whenever he steps on the court.
Powell’s offense has been reduced to just scoring and the Clippers are asking him to finish possessions more than anything else. His minutes have increased every game and the Clippers can’t seem to win unless their core three of Harden, Powell, and Paul George have a good game. Assuming George continues down his career path of playoff inefficiency, Powell has incredible upside as the top bench option with the Clippers desperate for offense.
Jayson Tatum UNDER 15.5 Rebounds + Assists
The Miami Heat are playing with their backs against the wall, but unless they come out shooting extremely hot, this series is still over. If it’s not Jaylen Brown, it’s Jayson Tatum. And if it’s not one of those two, it’s Derrick White. No matter how you frame it, the Celtics are way too talented for this Miami defense. It’ll take more than a creative scheme to keep this offense from humming, and Tatum is doing the small things to free up his teammates rather than throttling the usage.
Tatum’s taken a backseat in this series, and that shouldn’t change, seeing how well it’s working. Saving his energy for a tougher matchup is the right choice, and allowing his teammates to generate momentum for themselves should carry Boston through to the second round. The Heat are arguably shooting themselves out of each game, so even with Tatum’s nightly potential, it’s hard to believe he’s going to see increased usage or over 40 minutes like in Games 1 and 2.
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