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Justin looks at the NFL skill position players who flopped as rookies in 2023. What are their 2024 fantasy football outlooks?
There were some good performances by rookies in 2023, with players like Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud and Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua showing they were NFL stars.
Not every rookie was great, though. Some rookies flopped in their first season. Will those players be able to bounce back as their careers go along?
Let's take a look at some of the rookies who flopped in their first NFL campaign. To keep this from running too long, we'll be looking only at players taken in the first three rounds of the 2023 NFL Draft.
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Bryce Young - QB, Carolina Panthers
No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young was not very good. He completed just 59.8% of his passes and averaged less than one touchdown pass per game. He was sacked 62 times, losing a league-high 477 yards on sacks. He had one of the worst rookie seasons by EPA/play that we've ever seen from a rookie quarterback.
This is your worst EPA/play seasons for Rookie 1st Round QBs since 2007
Bryce Young wasn't quite Rosen/Goff/Russell bad but man it is not pretty. Youre hoping for a Goff/Stafford rebound pic.twitter.com/JQjAw7e2wU
— Ron Stewart (@RonStewart_) January 11, 2024
That's not to say he can't bounce back. He displayed some great accuracy and athleticism in college. Assuming his confidence hasn't been shaken too much by this one poor season, another offseason of development should be good for his long-term viability as an NFL starter, but I'm no longer convinced he can be a star.
Zach Charbonnet - RB, Seattle Seahawks
Zach Charbonnet had a decent rookie campaign, but he didn't live up to his second-round draft capital. He carried the ball 108 times for 462 yards and a score while serving as Kenneth Walker III's backup. As long as Walker is in Seattle, it's hard to see Charbonnet getting a ton of usage. No offense to Charbonnet, but Walker's just a more complete player.
Kendre Miller - RB, New Orleans Saints
The Saints backfield was messy this year, with Alvin Kamara, Jamaal Williams, and Taysom Hill all getting more carries than Kendre Miller, who finished with 41 carries for 156 yards and a score. He also caught 10 passes for 117 yards. He ended the season with a strong showing against the Falcons, rushing 13 times for 73 yards and a touchdown with Alvin Kamara out. Miller could still be a good rotational back, but probably not until Kamara is out of the picture.
Quentin Johnston - WR, Los Angeles Chargers
With injuries at wide receiver, 2023 was a perfect year for Quentin Johnston to break out for the Chargers. Instead, he struggled all year and just didn't earn a ton of targets.
Over the past 10 seasons, there have been nine instances of a WR meeting these qualifications:
- 24 or younger
- Round 1 NFL Draft capital
- 350+ routes run in a season
- target per route run rate below 17%2023 additions:
- Quentin Johnston
- Jahan Dotson (his second offense) pic.twitter.com/WQvYk1VUqL— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) February 9, 2024
I mean, look at that list of names that Johnston finds himself on. Nothing about that is encouraging. He was thoroughly outplayed by the other rookie receivers. As far as his performance vs. other Chargers goes, he finished with just six more targets than Josh Palmer despite appearing in seven more games than Palmer did.
Marvin Mims Jr. - WR, Denver Broncos
Mims was a Pro Bowl selection as a return man, but he just didn't see the field enough on offense. In Week 2, he caught two passes for 113 yards and a touchdown. One week later, he had three catches for 73 yards. Encouraging showings, but he played 24% and 35% of snaps in those games, respectively.
His snap rate exceeded 50% just twice all season. Despite his explosiveness, he didn't get opportunities. That should change in 2024. Mims is a breakout candidate next season.
Jalin Hyatt - WR, New York Giants
For the fourth time in five years, Darius Slayton led the Giants in receiving yards. It doesn't matter what the team does -- Slayton keeps being their most productive receiver. I'd like to think Jalin Hyatt can change that going forward, especially if the Giants move on from Slayton to save cap space. Hyatt caught 23 passes for 373 yards in 2023, but he saw the field a good bit down the stretch, playing over 50% of snaps in six of New York's final seven games.
Cedric Tillman - WR, Cleveland Browns
There were times when it looked like Cedric Tillman's stock was looking up as a rookie, but he finished with just 21 catches for 224 yards. Unless quarterback Deshaun Watson can return to his Texans-era heights in 2024, it's hard to see much fantasy value from Tillman, who'll likely be the team's No. 3 receiver at best. He had some flashes, but his route-running skills need to improve.
Michael Mayer - TE, Las Vegas Raiders
Michael Mayer was just a non-entity early in his rookie season. Over his first four games, he was targeted just twice, catching one pass for two yards. Things improved slightly from there, but he didn't wind up posting huge numbers. Mayer ended his first NFL campaign with 27 catches for 304 yards and two touchdowns.
#Raiders QB Aidan O’Connell put this ball in a perfect spot that only TE Michael Mayer could get it. #RaiderNation pic.twitter.com/DrZur773Kh
— Chris Reed (@ChrisReed_NFL) November 13, 2023
He made some good plays though, displaying a good ability to make tough catches and move the chains. While the numbers weren't great, Mayer's best moments showcased why he should be a top-10 tight end within the next two years.
Luke Schoonmaker - TE, Dallas Cowboys
We've now reached the "tight ends who barely saw the field" section of the article. We begin with Luke Schoonmaker, who caught eight passes for 65 yards and two touchdowns for the Dallas Cowboys. He played over 50% of snaps just once and ended the year on a sour note, with one reception for four yards over the final five games. With Jake Ferguson breaking out in 2023, there's not much of a path for Schoonmaker to become a fantasy-relevant tight end, though his run-blocking ability will keep him employed in the NFL.
Brenton Strange - TE, Jacksonville Jaguars
Jaguars rookie tight end Brenton Strange was targeted just nine times in 2023, catching five passes for 35 yards and a touchdown. Like Schoonmaker, he made an impact with his blocking ability, but he was just a non-entity in the passing game. That makes sense, considering how much the Jaguars focused on getting the ball to Evan Engram. It's hard to know what to expect from Strange going forward. He has talent, but his upside is heavily blocked by Engram.
Darnell Washington - TE, Pittsburgh Steelers
We end with another tight end who didn't do much in the passing game, Darnell Washington from the Steelers. Like the previous two players, Washington was a Day 2 pick who joined a team that already had a starting tight end. Also like the aforementioned players, he brought some good run-blocking shops but did little in the passing game, catching seven balls for 61 yards. He's likely going to be a value piece whose role in the passing game increases in 2024, but he's unlikely to ever emerge as a fantasy TE1 because so much of his value comes as a run blocker.
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