Dontayvion Wicks Fantasy Football Outlook - Was His Big Game Legit or a Fluke?

One of fantasy football Twitter's favorite sleeper breakout candidates for 2024 finally broke out in a big way. Green Bay Packers wide receiver Dontayvion Wicks had his biggest game of the season, catching five of 13 targets for 78 yards and two touchdowns against the Minnesota Vikings in Week 4.

Wicks had big games in 2023, none bigger than in Week 18 against the Chicago Bears when he caught six of seven targets for 61 yards and two touchdowns. Wicks was a late-season waiver-wire darling for desperate teams, and he delivered well for those that had playoff championships in Week 18.

So, was Dontayvion Wicks' performance in Week 4 legit or a fluke? Is he worth adding and starting for Week 5? Let's dive in.

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Why Did Dontayvion Wicks Have a Huge Game? 

The Packers have a bit of an odd situation at receiver. While Wicks is massively talented, it wasn't until fellow receiver Christian Watson went down with an injury that Wicks got enough opportunities to shine. This is like what happened in 2023, and the sophomore capitalized on his opportunities.

Dontayvion Wicks has reached a 70% route participation or higher in three games.

2023 Week 15: 15.7 fantasy points
2023 Week 18: 24.1 fantasy points
2024 Week 4: 23.8 fantasy points

Is it a small sample? Yes.

Should you be tentative on the waiver wire? No.

Wicks is a baller.

— Dwain McFarland (@dwainmcfarland) September 30, 2024

This is the biggest reason why he had a good game. He got the opportunity to. He balls out when he gets the chance and star quarterback Jordan Love is throwing the ball. It's interesting that the Packers' offense insists on continuing to use Watson when Love doesn't seem to favor targeting him much.

#GoPackGo WR target shares with Dontayvion Wicks on the field (2023-24)

😍 Dontayvion Wicks: 24%
⭐️ Jayden Reed: 17%
⚖️ Romeo Doubs: 16%
🤝 Tucker Kraft: 10%
🤮 Christian Watson: 2%
*approx. 400 routes

I’m ALL IN on Wicks as a TOP-20 WR rest of season!pic.twitter.com/cadpGok62n

— FANTASY UMPIRE (@FantasyUmpire) October 2, 2024

Wicks would ball out all season if Watson wasn't in the picture. But Watson has elite speed and height, so that's good for... drawing away coverage. Packers head coach and play-caller Matt LaFleur is certainly a fantastic play-caller, but it can be difficult to understand some of his decisions from a layman's view.

Most Targets Per Route Run In The NFL:

(Minimum 50 Routes)

1. Cooper Kupp - .39
2. Malik Nabers - .36
3. Rashee Rice - .35
4. Wan'Dale Robinson - .32
5. Amon-Ra St. Brown - .32
6. Dontayvion Wicks - .31
7. Diontae Johnson - .31
8. Michael Pittman - .31
9. Ladd McConkey - .30…

— T.J. Johnston (@GridironGuruFF) October 2, 2024

Love enjoys throwing it to Dontayvion. Dontayvion just needs to be on the field. This was the perfect scenario for him, and he produced a great game despite only catching five passes. If he had caught 10 we'd be talking about a Jauan Jennings level of breakout performance.

Will Dontayvion Wicks Continue to Dominate? 

Yes*. The asterisk is because when Watson comes back, Dontayvion may just be relegated to his old role. The Packers' offense is highly successful with that setup.

PFF's Nathan Jahnke breaks it down well - WR Romeo Doubs stays in one spot, Jayden Reed plays in 11 personnel (three WRs), while Wicks and Watson fight for snaps for the other WR spot. So when there are three receivers, it's Reed, Doubs, and Wicks or Watson, and when there are two WRs, it's Doubs and Wicks or Watson.

Still thinking about this Dontayvion Wicks juke

pic.twitter.com/NMATVSjaNw

— Eli Berkovits (@BookOfEli_NFL) July 19, 2024

The best way to describe Wicks is just that he's a playmaker. He regularly makes impressive plays that you don't see often. He's got great instincts and acceleration, and his movements are well-timed and thoughtful. He maximizes his athleticism whenever given the opportunity.

The Packers opted not to add to their group of receivers this offseason, and the more you watch, the more you see why. Dontayvion Wicks leaps off the screen--size, route running, YAC ability...total package. pic.twitter.com/K9kVkW5Jf1

— Mina Kimes (@minakimes) June 29, 2024

Wicks has a massive skill set. When he has the opportunity, he will continue to dominate. There's not a lot of reason to think that he'll see significant opportunity when Watson returns, though. The Packers WR hierarchy is pretty set in stone. That said, Watson has a history of injuries, so it's possible Wicks could see extended playing time.

What Will The Rest of Dontayvion Wicks' Season Look Like? 

Dontayvion should be dynamite until Watson returns. It's worth noting that while inconsistent, Watson is still a great athlete and has ridiculous speed for his size. The vertical element that Watson brings is something that Wicks can't really provide. LaFleur likely adjusts his play calls based on which WRs are on the field.

My boy was juiced up, he was letting Christian Watson and the NFL know shit ain't sweet on that side. pic.twitter.com/hUiUEtbVra

— Jamal (@FinesseBucket) September 7, 2024

What Watson has in speed, he lacks in-game IQ and playmaking ability, though. The two receivers could be more different in their skill sets. For fantasy, though, you should always prefer the receiver that has a higher target share. Watson has been mostly irrelevant this season.

37 seconds of Dontayvion Wicks shredding defenders 😮‍💨

(via @ReallyRichx2)
pic.twitter.com/z7BvVu3SHp

— SleeperNFL (@SleeperNFL) February 6, 2024

Should I Pick Up Or Start Dontayvion Wicks In Week 5? 

You should pick him up and start him in every game that Watson doesn't play in. He has week-winning potential. Wicks is massively efficient with his opportunities, and more than any other receiver in the league, he has a "nose for the first down." That's not even a thing, but he was so efficient at it.

First downs per route run vs. good 'ol receiving yards per game.

Looking above the line, spot the Year 2 WRs who could be more productive next year:

- Dontayvion Wicks

- Rashee Rice

- Tank Dell

I break down this predictive stat from @FantasyPtsData in the article below! pic.twitter.com/wq9u4lJw9S

— Ryan Heath (@RyanJ_Heath) March 19, 2024

You don't get to be this efficient without being a major playmaker, and we see Tank Dell (2023 breakout) and Rashee Rice (late 2023/2024 breakout, RIP)  both excelling in this category. Both Rice and Dell are highly talented receivers that best fit the mold of "playmakers". They find many ways to make big things happen, for lack of a better phrase.

Dontayvion isn't going to save your season in all likelihood, though. He probably slots back into his old role if Watson comes back healthy, though he could help you win some games along the way.

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