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Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson's hype rocket ship blasted off to the depths of outer space after the 2023 season. Analysts left and right, as well as the majority of the fantasy community, were united in excitement about what Bijan would do in the 2024 season, and as a result, he was a universal first-round pick in fantasy drafts.
To say he has disappointed would be an understatement. Robinson is a huge bust through four games, and while there's no guarantee that will continue, it would be a massive uphill battle for him to even break into the top five. He'd have to significantly outplay several backs that are dominating right now.
Will Robinson turn it around or is this what to expect from him for the rest of the season? Is there a chance he can still be a league-winner? Let's dive into the problems with Robinson.
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Problem One: The Hype
While NFL Draft capital (the spot at which a player was chosen in the real NFL Draft) is the best predictor of player success in the NFL, high draft capital doesn't guarantee a player will live up to expectations at the next level. There are numerous busts or reaches in every year of the NFL draft.
4 years ago, the 1st round of the 2020 #NF Draft was selected 🏈 pic.twitter.com/iJZOBwyNwQ
— NFL Stats (@NFL_Stats) April 23, 2024
Hindsight is 20/20, but many fantasy managers may not remember that Jerry Jeudy was selected before CeeDee Lamb in the 2020 NFL draft. Lamb certainly exceeded expectations, but being stuck in the idea that Jeudy would be a great receiver because he was a high draft pick was flawed logic. The Jeudy hype was nuts, and he flopped.
Bijan Robinson was viewed as a generational running back prospect and was drafted eighth overall. The hype was astronomical. That doesn't mean he has to live up to it. He could just be a very good starting running back in the league for a long time. That's fine, but not good for a first-round fantasy draft pick.
Bijan Robinson isn't the elite fantasy RB we all think he is... pic.twitter.com/7f3aPCYg1u
— Underdog (@UnderdogFantasy) October 1, 2024
He's not in a perfect situation, but no one is. Each running back in the league, even the highest-tier elite players, has problems to contend with. Saquon Barkley is on a team with injury problems at receiver, for example, yet he's putting up massive games while Bijan is not.
Problem Two: Bijan Robinson... and Tyler Allgeier
Robinson is a very good running back in the NFL. He hasn't shown that he can be an elite fantasy producer, though. He hasn't even cracked 20 PPR fantasy points yet this season and ranks as the RB20 in PPR. It's not like he's on a horrible team or has no offensive line, either.
Bijan finished as the RB9 last year in PPR scoring. NFL teams getting tape on players is the great equalizer, though, and often a big reason for the "sophomore slump," where a player's production goes down in their second year. Whether he'll improve or it will be a slump for him is yet to be seen, but he hasn't made top-five RB plays.
There's another issue. Fantasy managers care about scoring points, and running back points are boosted by massive workloads and dominance of backfields. Derrick Henry, Saquon, and Jonathan Taylor are examples of running backs that dominate their backfields. Bijan doesn't. Tyler Allgeier is an excellent running back.
Dude is a bowling ball@tylerallgeier25
FOX | NFL+ pic.twitter.com/qW4hFSJqpp
— Atlanta Falcons (@AtlantaFalcons) September 29, 2024
Allgeier is fantastic for the Falcons. He can be effective in both the running and passing game, and he keeps Bijan healthy. Some of the best backfields in recent years in the NFL (think Saints prime Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram) are a tandem attack that perfectly complements each other and open up the playbook.
Allgeier actually had his biggest game of the season in Week 4, and usage statistics back this up. Allgeier actually out-carried Bijan eight to seven and had 60 rushing yards to Bijan's 28. It's worth noting PFF rates Tyler at 79.7 and Robinson at 80.2, suggesting that they are closer than people think.
Notable backup RBs averaging far more yards per carry than the starter this season (min. 15 carries):
Tank Bigsby (8.2) vs. Travis Etienne (4.6)
Chase Brown (6.3) vs. Zack Moss (3.9)
Tyler Allgeier (6.1) vs. Bijan Robinson (4.1)
Bucky Irving (5.8) vs. Rachaad White (2.8)…— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) September 30, 2024
As enraging as it can be, teams notice efficiency and react to it. It's not proof that one back is better than the other, though. Defenses often are more inclined to play the run when the lead back is on the field. But it should make you curious, and often, coaches like to see what happens when they give more chances to the more efficient guy.
It's unlikely that Robinson will see opportunity dominance like Henry, Saquon, or other huge workhorses of the league. And Allgeier has earned his role and probably more.
Problem 3: The Falcons Offense
This problem has a bit to do with expectations as well. Many saw the Falcons as an offense that would explode out of the gates to start the season and put up massive numbers. That was unlikely to happen with a new quarterback coming off an Achilles' tear and a new coaching staff, but it's been even worse than expected.
I'm sorry, it's gotta be said. This #Falcons offense is *bad*. Not OK, not growing. *Bad*.
— Kevin Knight (@FalcoholicKevin) September 29, 2024
They rank 19th in total yards per game despite being "loaded" with offensive talent. They have one of the league's best offensive lines (yes there have been injuries, yes it's still a good line), a high-volume passer in Kirk Cousins, a top-ten drafted running back and a top-ten drafted receiver. It should be better than this.
It's reasonable that there could be growing pains, so it's important to be patient, but they have a lot of work to do.
Will Bijan Robinson Turn It Around?
It's definitely possible, but it's important to manage expectations. He was drafted above sure-fire elite talents and future Hall of Famers. King Henry is on a tear with the Baltimore Ravens, just coming off a 209-yard, one-touchdown game one week after racking up 174 yards and one touchdown.
Saquon, meanwhile, has 98 PPR fantasy points through four games, good for 24.5 per game. The elite players are showing elite production. The tape shows that they are dominating, and Bijan is not. It's reasonable to expect Robinson to improve as the season goes on, but much less so that he'll break into the top two and justify his ADP.
He's a must-start, and his managers don't have much choice but to keep starting him and wait. They'll hope this article is proven wrong, and he becomes the fantasy asset he was hyped to be. But barring injury to multiple other star running backs, it's a long shot.
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