Should I Drop Deebo Samuel? Fantasy Football Outlook for Week 13

Sometimes, it's worth it to sit back and think about how crazily quickly things can change in the NFL. From Weeks 12-15 in 2023, San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Deebo Samuel Sr. was an elite fantasy option, tearing up opposing defenses and looking just like his old self. Less than one year later, many fantasy managers are considering dropping him.

There are a lot of reasons he hasn't been producing so far this season. When you evaluate them, the picture starts to become a lot clearer. Still, it's been surprising to see him be so unproductive so far in 2024.

So is Samuel a safe player to drop?

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Should I Drop Deebo Samuel in Fantasy Football?

It's probably worth hanging on to him for the rest of the season. A lot has gone wrong with the 49ers in general so far. It can feel good to drop him, but you're very unlikely to find someone off waivers or free agency that can match his upside. Whatever his upside remains to be, that is.

Deebo Samuel has to catch this football. Worst year of his career. #49ers pic.twitter.com/LQDQXohLp2

— Chase Senior (@Chase_Senior) November 24, 2024

It seems like everything's going wrong for him. For one, there have been injury issues to his quarterback, Brock Purdy (shoulder). That doesn't excuse bad drops like this, but it's been a factor. Also, the offensive line has been dealing with a multitude of injuries, and the protection just hasn't held up well.

Purdy has been under plenty of duress this season. A rising tide lifts all boats, and the inverse is true. Bad OL play has tanked this offense's production, as have injury woes. After finishing top-6 in points scored per game in both 2022 and 2023, they've sunk to around middle of the league this year.

49ers offense after 6 plays.

2 penalties
1 sack
1 fumble
1 dropped interception
0 first downs pic.twitter.com/kWGzhhXT38

— John Chapman (@JL_Chapman) November 24, 2024

While he can't be blamed for missing his quarterback in Week 12, 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan's stubborn refusal to adapt to injuries has cost his team. He's insistent on rolling out the Dollar Store version of running back Christian McCaffrey in a workhorse role rather than give electric rookie Isaac Guerendo a chance to inject some life into the O.

It doesn't help that CMC has missed so much time, but even with him back, Samuel has been less than stellar. Shanahan's continue to call plenty of run plays and designed touches for him, but they just haven't been working. After three great rushing seasons averaging 6.2, 5.5, and 6.1 yards per carry, he has just 2.9 this year.

Deebo Samuel has been used very much like a running back throughout his career with the 49ers. Data has shown what happens to running backs after the age of 28. The physical style in which he played throughout his career is bound to have taken a toll. I appreciate what he’s done… pic.twitter.com/DYuaeilWMj

— Ryan G Hensley (@ryanghensley) November 25, 2024

The offensive line issues are certainly a part of this. They're not getting much push in the run game. McCaffrey, elite as he is, is averaging under 3.5 yards per rush. It's atrocious. But there's something to be said for Samuel's playing style -- it's not conducive to long-term sustainability.

The sixth-year pro's usage has subjected him to an absolute beating. The NFL is tough on running backs, and he's often played like one. The burst he previously played with seems to be fading on film. That's a subjective opinion, but the numbers at least somewhat back it up.

Also, WR Jauan Jennings has been a revelation this season, and played far better than expected. He's the team's de-facto No. 1 receiver now. That hasn't helped Samuel at all.

Who Should I Pickup in Week 13 Fantasy Football?

There isn't a player on waivers that you can pick up that will replace the potential upside the former South Carolina Gamecocks phenom has. That's the reality. In most leagues, Jennings has already been taken, and he's the most logical replacement. However, you'd have to have picked him up previously.

Every Jauan Jennings catch this year?

Every Jauan Jennings catch it is! 📽️ pic.twitter.com/pUmptINa73

— Fantasy Footballers (@TheFFBallers) November 20, 2024

It's depressing, but you may have to just keep starting him and hope for the best. Waivers are remarkably barren this time of year. If Denver Broncos wide receiver Devaughn Vele is available, he may be worth a shot, though. But you're probably better off starting Samuel over him anyway.

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