Should I Drop Dawson Knox? Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Outlook

Buffalo Bills tight end Dawson Knox had a breakout season in 2021. By gaining 587 yards and nine touchdowns on 49 receptions, Knox finished as the league's TE10 in PPR formats.

Unfortunately, Knox was unable to carry that momentum into 2022. He's made just 20 catches for 183 yards and two touchdowns through Week 9, amounting to just the TE24 in PPR scoring.

Knox is the starting tight end in a high-powered Buffalo offense, but fantasy managers have been left frustrated with his lack of production. Is he due for an increase in scoring, or should managers send him to the waiver wire?

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What Has Dawson Knox Done In 2022 Fantasy Football?

Knox has had a disappointing 2022 campaign. Last season, he averaged 10.9 PPR points per game. This year, he has reached that mark just once. He also has just two weekly finishes inside the top-15 tight ends. Although the Bills have been very successful offensively, Knox has not delivered.

He actually has been fairly efficient, though. He has averaged the ninth-most fantasy points per target among tight ends, and he has the eighth-best production premium at the position. He just hasn't gotten the ball enough; his 14.1 percent target rate is 33rd among tight ends.

Knox has also seen significant touchdown regression from last season. He scored nine touchdowns on 49 receptions in 2021, as compared to two scores on twenty catches this year. Moreover, his yards per reception have declined from 12.0 to 9.2. Knox certainly has not lived up to his ADP as the TE10.

Should I Drop Dawson Knox to the Waiver Wire in Fantasy Football?

Despite Knox's quiet first half of the season, there is still a path to him regaining his stride. The Bills are capable of scoring touchdowns in bunches, and Knox was one of the top contributors on the team in that regard last season. Perhaps some positive touchdown regression could be in order.

It's dangerous to rely on that idea, though. Indeed, Knox averaged the most fantasy points per target out of all tight ends last season. It is therefore unrealistic to expect him to produce with the same efficiency we saw from him last year. Considering Knox was the TE30 and TE38 in 2019 and 2020, respectively, it's fair to wonder at this point if his output last season was an outlier rather than something he can replicate.

It's not like his shortage of targets is anything new either; he averaged just 4.7 per game last year compared to his 3.9 this season. He has never gotten large volume. With Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, Isaiah McKenzie, and Devin Singletary all large factors in the passing game, it's tough to see that changing.

If Knox were a rookie putting up his current quality of production, he would certainly not be rostered in 61.0 percent of ESPN leagues like he is in reality. The reason he's being held onto is his past track record, and that looks like a shaky justification upon further analysis.

There are probably stronger options on your league's waiver wire than Knox. Your team would be better off taking a chance on an up-and-comer like Greg Dulcich or Cade Otton than continuing to hope for more from Knox.

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