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Draft season is heating up and we are officially two weeks out from the start of the 2023 NFL season, with Kansas City and Detroit kicking off on Thursday, September 7 to open the new league year. You know what that means - the next few weeks will be full of fantasy drafting.
A common challenge when drafting is making the choice between two players in a similar tier, especially at the same position. With the weekly volatility at the wide receiver position, picking between two similar receivers is often a challenge.
Today we are going to dig into two rookie receivers and determine which you should pick in drafts this season. Let’s analyze a pair of first-round rookies being drafted in the tenth round in Vikings’ Jordan Addision and Ravens’ Zay Flowers.
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Should I Draft Jordan Addison?
WR 44 - ADP: 111th overall
Minnesota Vikings rookie receiver Jordan Addison was drafted in the first round and is a penciled-in starter, replacing the departed Adam Thielen. After releasing Dalvin Cook, Minnesota’s new workhorse running back is Alexander Mattison.
With Kevin O’Connell entering his second season as the head coach, this is a team that is set to lean on the passing game. Minnesota attempted the third-most passes in the league last season and we should see more of the same in 2023.
As for the Pitt and USC product, Addison will not have a chance to lead the team in target share without an injury to star receiver Justin Jefferson. He should compete with tight end T.J. Hockenson for the second-most targets on a pass-heavy offense, and with his elite route running paired with top defenders covering Jefferson, he is a smash pick in the tenth round.
Thielen leaves behind 107 targets and those should all go toward Addison, giving him a comfortable floor and a high ceiling given his talent.
Should I Draft Zay Flowers?
Baltimore Ravens rookie wide receiver Zay Flowers was another Round 1 selection in the 2023 NFL Draft. Flowers’ elite work ethic and speed catapulted him up draft boards late and pushed him into the bottom of the first round, where the receiver-needy Ravens pulled the trigger on the elite prospect.
Baltimore attempted the fifth-least passes in 2022, but new offensive coordinator Todd Monken is expected to drastically increase those numbers in 2023. Will Baltimore suddenly change from being one of the most run-heavy teams in the league to leaning more on the pass in just one offseason? It remains to be seen, but the passing volume should increase from a season ago.
Star tight end Mark Andrews is expected to soak up a major target share in this offense, but behind him the competition is wide-open. The receiver group has undergone a revamp since last season, adding Flowers along with veterans Odell Beckham Jr. and Nelson Agholor to a group that already included former first-round pick Rashod Bateman and return specialist Devin Duvernay.
Flowers has been impressive in camp and preseason and while it is rare for a rookie to come out and immediately be the top option in the passing game, he certainly has the ability to do so.
With the Ravens’ receiving room posing more questions than answers right now, Flowers looks like the safest bet to be the top option behind Andrews in this offense as things currently stand.
Who Should I Draft?
In fantasy, later-round rookies often get off to a slow start before exploding down the stretch and winning league titles. It happens every year, and by the time you are in Rounds 9 and 10, you should be looking for that high-upside rookie. Addison and Flowers are prime examples, as both have very high ceilings with league-winning potential.
If forced to pick between the two, keep in mind that Jordan Addison is in an offense with guaranteed volume and a role right out of the gate. Zay Flowers, on the other hand, faces more question marks but essentially has a higher ceiling since he has no Justin Jefferson in his path to volume.
The safer pick at this point is Addison given his guaranteed role in a high-powered passing attack, but at this point in drafts, you can’t go wrong with Flowers if Addison is off the board. Best of luck in drafts this season, for any further draft or in-season advice feel free to contact @BrantasyFB on Twitter.
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