RADIO
The running back position as a whole has become riskier by the year in fantasy football. Between the rarity of the modern bell cow back and the high injury risk, picking the right running backs in upcoming drafts can be tough to do.
Jonathan Taylor is obviously a risky pick this year given his injury concerns and off-the-field feud with the team's front office. James Conner is set to play in what could be the worst offense in the NFL. Either way, both players are still on the fantasy radar and are now going around the same spot in drafts.
Should you draft Taylor or Connor for 2023 fantasy drafts? Let's dive in.
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Should I Draft Jonathan Taylor?
Jonathan Taylor dominated as a second-year player in 2021, rushing for a league-high 1,811 yards and 18 touchdowns on 332 carries. This catapulted his fantasy value to a top-three overall selection in 2022 drafts. He disappointed mightily in 2022, posting just 861 yards on 192 carries (4.5 YCP) and four touchdowns in 11 games.
Taylor is starting the 2023 season on the PUP (Physically Unable to Perform) list and will miss at least the first four games of the regular season. When those four weeks are up, it's unknown if he'll be willing to play for the franchise that essentially told him he won't get a contract extension.
Reasonably, he's now falling to the sixth round of 12-team best ball drafts, according to FFPC ADP.
His 2023 outlook was already tricky given the arrival of rushing quarterback Anthony Richardson, who could be a goal-line vulture. The Colts offense will also likely struggle with a rookie quarterback under center.
All that said, Taylor should have no problem paying off at his sixth-round cost, if he returns in Week 5.
Should I Draft James Conner?
James Conner has posted at least 1,000 yards from scrimmage and eight touchdowns in each of his first two seasons in Arizona. For an extended period in 2023, he will be without Kyler Murray at quarterback, and star wideout DeAndre Hopkins is also out of town.
The 28-year-old ball carrier is in line for a monster workload, but it's tough to see a path toward extreme upside in 2023. While he has been impressive in the absence of Murray in the past, it's uncertain if he can remain a high-end RB1 given the offensive overhaul Arizona has made this offseason.
Clayton Tune or Joshua Dobbs behind center could tank the offense into the ground. Ultimately, Conner has a wide range of outcomes and is available in the late-sixth or early-seventh rounds of best ball drafts.
Who Should I Draft?
Overall, Conner is clearly the safer option to draft ahead of Taylor for 2023. That said, safety isn't always what you want to chase in fantasy football.
If both players reach their ceiling outcomes after Week 5, Taylor presents a competitive advantage at his mightily reduced cost. If you like to err on the side of caution, Conner is your guy. If you like to take risks and shoot for the moon, go with Taylor.
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