RADIO
Back again with another RotoBaller ADP duel, this time comparing James Conner vs. Cam Akers. Running backs who find themselves in a similar place atop their respective depth charts, but also have a few glaring red flags.
Due to these red flags, these players are being drafted as RB25 and RB26 in the sixth round of FFPC high-stakes leagues. However, despite the cautionary signs, both Conner and Akers often find themselves in the RB2 role due to the unique opportunity each backfield provides.
In this article, we will compare both running backs' Average Draft Position (ADP) while digging deeper into their potential ceiling and floor performances to determine which player is better suited to help your team win a fantasy championship. If you'd like to learn more about ADP, check out Brandon Murchison's piece about Stefon Diggs vs. A.J. Brown.
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Why The Alarm Bells Are Ringing
If you played fantasy football last season, there's a good chance you were burned by the Rams' starting running back. Often drafted in the fourth round, Cam Akers wound up in coach Sean McVay's doghouse before the season even began. Heralded as the starting running back, he did not see over 50% of the snap share until Week 13 and was the RB79 in fantasy points per game. He also suffered an Achilles tendon tear the year prior, albeit somehow returning for the Rams' Super Bowl playoff run.
The Cardinals' lead back has always been an undervalued fantasy asset mainly due to his plodding running style. He isn't flashy or explosive, so he's often overlooked. Think of Chad Bradford from the movie Moneyball. Unfortunately, James Conner is now 28 years old with a history of lower-body soft tissue injuries. The cliff is looming for Conner, especially since he is a player without much juice to lose in the first place.
The Case For James Conner
Despite a history of lower-body injuries, Conner has proven to be a true bell-cow when given the opportunity. Appearing in 13 games last season, the former Pittsburgh Panther rushed for 782 yards while catching 46 passes, good for an RB9 finish in fantasy points per game (FPPG). He's been a top-12 running back in fantasy football each of the last two seasons and three times in his career. Conner also garnered a 70% opportunity share. Over the past three seasons, each running back with >70% opportunity finished in the top 24.
Arizona added zero backfield threats this offseason. Last year's RB9 in FPPG is set up to lead the backfield in rush attempts and receptions. Post Kyler Murray's ACL injury, Conner received 75% of the backfield snaps while finishing as RB3 in FPPG. The Cardinals enter 2023 with 36-year-old Colt McCoy as the starter. It's unlikely anyone in this backfield eclipses 1,000 yards on the ground, but this team is going to throw a lot of checkdowns and dump-offs to the running back position.
Conner has a clear path to >70% snap share and over five targets per game, once again on pace for a low-end RB1 finish based on sheer volume.
The Case For Cam Akers
Around Week 13, Los Angeles decided Akers was ready to reclaim his starting running back role. The fourth-year vet returned with a vengeance, averaging 18 touches and 17.7 FPPG over the final six weeks, good for an RB5 finish. In 2022, every running back to receive 15+ touches finished in the top 25 at the position. Over the same span, Akers also improved as a receiver, more than doubling his target rate while earning an elite 75% snap share.
Similar to Arizona, the Rams only added a sixth-round rookie as backfield competition while losing Darrell Henderson Jr. and Malcolm Brown. Quarterback Matthew Stafford turned 35 this year. As QBs age, they run less and rely more on short-yardage pass attempts to get the ball out quickly. Couple that with a bad defense and one of the lowest team win totals in the NFL, and Akers is set up to receive more passing game work than ever while maintaining a stranglehold over the rest of this backfield.
You're On The Clock, Who's It Going To Be?
For both of these players, their current ADP suggests their floor outcome. Opportunity is king in fantasy football. The pair is in similar backfield situations on bad teams, with the opportunity to eclipse 18 touches per game. Elite usage.
When you're on the clock, this decision comes down to personal preference. Do you prefer the 28-year-old grinder with receiving upside or the 24-year-old with juice left to burn? Either way, this is an excellent position to target your RB2 in fantasy football this season.
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