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Longtime Tennessee Titans running back Derrick Henry swapped AFC squads this offseason, and he's set to play alongside Lamar Jackson with the Baltimore Ravens in 2024. Although Henry is beyond the running back age apex, he continues to carry plenty of fantasy football intrigue with his new team.
Henry, one of just eight players in NFL history to rush for at least 2,000 yards in a single season, kicks off his season on Thursday night against the defending Super Bowl Champions, the Kansas City Chiefs.
As late fantasy football drafts take place, let's dive into his fantasy football outlook in his ninth NFL campaign and answer the question... "should you draft him?"
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Derrick Henry Fantasy Football Outlook
Henry enters the 2024 season following a "down" final year with the Titans. He rushed 280 times (led the NFL) for 1,167 yards and 12 touchdowns and caught 28 passes for 214 yards. His 4.2 yards per carry marked his worst efficiency since 2017, but he was ultimately still productive thanks to volume. Henry finished the season as the RB8 in PPR and half-PPR setups and the RB5 in standard leagues.
DERRICK HENRY IS ETERNAL pic.twitter.com/6NlG01UjpF
— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) January 7, 2024
Now in Baltimore, he might not be a lock to lead the league in carries, but he should see significantly more room to operate while defenses key in on Jackson. Tennessee's offensive line was a mess last year, and Ryan Tannehill nor Will Levis threatened defense on the ground. Outside of DeAndre Hopkins, Henry was the only Tennessee player defenses had to worry about. That won't be the case when Henry shares a field with Jackson, Zay Flowers, and Mark Andrews.
Last season, Ravens starter Gus Edwards saw 30 carries inside the 10-yard-line (sixth) and 19 carries inside the five-yard-line (most). He scored 13 total rushing touchdowns (second) and 12 touchdowns inside the five-yard-line (second). Henry will likely see an even higher share of those valuable touches than Edwards did, so even if he regresses mightily as an overall ball carrier, he should still score touchdowns in bunches. We're talking 20+ touchdown-upside here.
Should I Draft Derrick Henry in Fantasy Football?
Based on average ADP, Henry is being drafted as the RB9 in standard, PPR, and half-PPR formats. He's a strong back-end second-round pick in standard leagues due to his projected opportunity near the end zone. That's a perfect place to click the button on him.
He's a bit riskier in that range of the draft in half-PPR, but he's still likely a solid bet to at least perform as a top-10 running back.
Derrick Henry admitted he watched the AFC championship game in Jan. with the thought that he was nearly a Raven before the trade deadline. He’s happy he’s part of the matchup now pic.twitter.com/6BpM5hn42T
— Jeff Zrebiec (@jeffzrebiec) September 1, 2024
Henry was the RB16 on a points-per-game basis in PPR leagues, and his opportunity to catch passes is likely slim in Baltimore. In this scoring format, drafters should consider Marvin Harrison Jr., Josh Allen, Travis Kelce, or Drake London. His PPR ceiling just isn't as high as those guys unless he does reach the 20-touchdown threshold.
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