RADIO
Draft season is turning the corner as the 2023 NFL season is set to kick off in about a week and a half. If you’re waiting until after cutdown day to do your draft, as any logical fantasy drafter would do, you’re probably seeking fantasy advice and that caused you to land here on this article.
In RotoBaller’s ADP series, we have been comparing and contrasting two players at the same position who have similar average draft positions and pointing fantasy managers in the right direction. I wrote a piece on Tyler Lockett vs. Marquise Brown and Jordan Addison vs. Zay Flowers, and the rest of the RotoBaller experts have been cranking out similar pieces as draft season hits its peak.
Today, we are going to take a look at two mid-to-late round tight ends. If you don’t grab one of the elite tight ends (Travis Kelce or Mark Andrews), history says the smart thing to do is wait until the late rounds to grab one. Let’s say you’re following that strategy, but you’re about to be on the clock and can’t make up your mind between Chicago Bears tight end Cole Kmet and Tennessee Titans tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo. You came to the right place.
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Breakdown Of ADP
Average Draft Position, commonly referred to as ADP, represents the average position at which a player is drafted in fantasy football leagues. ADP is typically derived from data collected from various mock drafts and real drafts conducted by fantasy football enthusiasts. This powerful metric serves as a benchmark, indicating the perceived value and popularity of players within the fantasy football community.
Understanding ADP is essential for fantasy managers, as it provides crucial insights into player rankings and draft trends and helps determine the optimal time to select specific players. By incorporating ADP into their draft strategy, managers can effectively gauge player availability, identify potential steals, and avoid reaching for players too early in the draft.
ADP acts as a compass, guiding fantasy managers through the unpredictable terrain of the draft. It offers an overview of player rankings, allowing managers to gauge which players are typically selected in the early rounds and which may fall to later rounds.
This knowledge can help managers identify "value picks," where players with a higher ADP can be secured at a lower draft position. Additionally, analyzing ADP trends over time can provide valuable insights into player fluctuations and market sentiment, helping managers stay ahead of the competition. By incorporating ADP data into their draft strategy, managers can make well-informed decisions, ensuring they assemble a well-balanced team capable of maximizing points and securing victory.
Draft strategy is a fundamental aspect of fantasy football success, and ADP plays a pivotal role in its development. Armed with the knowledge of ADP, managers can adopt different strategies based on the unique characteristics of their league. For example, "Zero RB" and "Late-Round QB" strategies capitalize on ADP data to determine when to prioritize running backs and quarterbacks, respectively.
Conversely, understanding ADP can help managers identify the optimal time to select high-value wide receivers or tight ends. By blending their draft strategy with ADP insights, managers can create a well-rounded roster that maximizes value and minimizes risk, setting themselves up for success throughout the fantasy football season.
Average Draft Position (ADP) serves as a vital tool in the arsenal of fantasy football managers. By comprehending the definition, importance, and strategic utilization of ADP, managers can make informed decisions during the draft, ultimately constructing a championship-caliber team. With ADP as their guide, fantasy managers can navigate the intricacies of the draft process, identify value picks, and adapt their strategy to gain a competitive edge. Let's break down the ADPs of TEs Cole Kmet and Chigoziem Okonkwo and see who the better pick for your fantasy football team may be.
Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears
TE11 - ADP: 112th Overall (Round 10)
Chicago Bears tight end Cole Kmet had a very rough start to his 2022 campaign, posting zeroes in both Week 1 and Week 2 which led him to be dropped in most leagues. He didn’t score his first touchdown until Week 8, but it was all uphill from there.
Kmet finished the season as the TE7 overall despite his rough start and emerged as a top red zone target for Justin Fields, corralling seven receiving touchdowns on the season. While the Bears did add D.J. Moore to the receiver room and tacked on Robert Tonyan to join Kmet at tight end, they did not add much else in the form of pass catchers.
Kmet is currently being drafted as the TE11, with a 10th round ADP. While this is lower than he finished last season, it doesn’t take into account that he will likely split time with Robert Tonyan this season. Kmet projects as a touchdown dependant tight end, but should still be a go-to target for Justin Fields in the red zone.
Chigoziem Okonkwo
TE17 - ADP 161st Overall (Round 13)
Tennessee Titans tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo broke out down the stretch of his rookie season in 2022 after seeing very limited usage for the majority of the season. Okonkwo led the tight end position in yards per route run and although he did it with limited usage, he flashed insane upside and big-play ability.
Okonkwo made big play after big play as a rookie and this season should be the featured tight end in Tennessee as Austin Hooper and Geoff Swaim have moved on. Behind DeAndre Hopkins and Treylon Burks, who is already hurt, the Titans have nobody to throw the ball to. While this does project as a run-heavy offense behind Derrick Henry, they will need to throw the ball at times and Okonkwo could easily emerge as a go-to target for Ryan Tannehill (or Malik Willis or Will Levis) in his second season as a pro.
Fantasy Football Verdict
Both late-round tight ends are late-round picks for a reason, but if faced with the choice between the two which way should you lean?
It’s a tough decision given these guys have similar roadblocks in their paths to consistent production. Both are in run-first offenses and both have a few weapons in front of them who should see targets first.
Kmet has more touchdown upside given his role as a red zone target, but Okonkwo has more volume upside with just two receivers in his way and no tight end competition. Okonkwo has also proven to be explosive and could be a real steal at his ADP.
Pass on Kmet for Okonkwo from a volume perspective, although both could have limited volume, and on the notion that he has the ability to create big plays on his own.
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