RADIO
Welcome RotoBallers to our ADP duel comparing C.J. Stroud and Anthony Richardson for 2024 fantasy football drafts. One crucial aspect of building a successful fantasy football team is understanding and leveraging Average Draft Position (ADP) data. ADP provides a snapshot of where players are being selected in drafts, offering insights into market trends and helping managers make informed decisions. By comparing ADPs across different platforms and leagues, fantasy enthusiasts can identify potential value picks and avoid overhyped players, ultimately giving them a competitive edge.
The intricacies of ADP comparisons extend beyond merely noting where players are drafted. It involves analyzing the discrepancies and patterns that emerge from various sources such as ESPN, Sleeper, and FFPC. Each platform has its unique user base and scoring settings, which can significantly influence player rankings and draft strategies. By delving into these variations, managers can tailor their draft strategies to exploit specific league settings and capitalize on inefficiencies in player evaluations. Understanding these nuances is essential for making astute decisions, especially in high-stakes leagues where every pick counts.
Moreover, ADP comparisons serve as a valuable tool for identifying sleepers and busts. Players who are consistently drafted higher or lower than their projected performance can signal potential over- or under-valuations. Savvy managers can use this information to their advantage, targeting undervalued players who are likely to outperform their draft position and steering clear of those who may not live up to the hype. As the fantasy football landscape continues to evolve, staying abreast of ADP trends and comparisons will remain a cornerstone of effective draft strategy, helping managers build robust and competitive rosters. Let's break down the ADPs of QBs Stroud and Richardson and see who the better pick for your fantasy football team may be.
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C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans
QB5 - ADP: 47th Overall
C.J. Stroud came into the NFL in 2023 as a rookie and far exceeded the expectations that many in the fantasy community had for him. Appearing in 15 games, Stroud was able to accumulate 285 FP, but it was his fantasy PPG (19.0) that propelled him into a weekly starter for fantasy managers. Going into the 2023 season, there was not much excitement to be had for the Houston Texans offense. But with the breakout of third-year wideout Nico Collins and the emergence of fellow rookie Tank Dell, the offense gave Stroud plenty of opportunities to score as they ranked seventh in the NFL in pace of play (2.15).
Due to the two missed games, much of Stroud's counting stats placed him outside of the Top 12 at the position. Even with just 499 pass attempts (QB14), he was able to pile up 4,108 yards (QB8) and 23 touchdowns (QB13). It was his efficiency metrics that buoyed his value in fantasy production, as his yards per attempt (8.2) and average depth of target (9.4) were among the best in the league. If he can maintain his fantasy points per dropback (0.51) in 2024, there is reason to believe that Stroud can progress into the Top 5 at the position.
As we head into the 2024 season, things look a lot different for Stroud and the expectations for the Texans offense. With another year under OC Bobby Slowik, the trade for Stefon Diggs, and the addition of Joe Mixon, the hype is real for the sophomore QB. With the weapons surrounding him, and the expected progression for him, there's no reason to believe that Stroud can't live up to his current ADP.
With Mixon bringing a viable threat in the backfield, it will be hard for opposing defenses to sit back and focus on keeping Stroud and the passing attack at bay. I would also expect to see the Texans improve upon their ranking of 12th in pass plays per game (34.8) in 2024 and break into the Top 10. If this were to happen, Stroud should be able to live up to the hype and maintain his level as a sit-and-forget starting QB for fantasy managers.
Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts
QB6 - ADP: 48th Overall
Much like Stroud, Richardson was a sight to behold as a rookie in 2023. The big difference between the two was availability. Due to multiple injuries, Richardson was limited to appearances in just four games of the season. But during those four games, he was nothing short of electrifying. His 0.76 FP per dropback paced the position with a minimum of 75 dropbacks. Of course, a lot of his production can be attributed to what he did on the ground as a runner.
His 34 rushing yards per game ranked as the QB5, while his four rushing scores were seventh-best at the position for the entire season. There is some improvement to be made as a passer, though, as his 144.3 passing yards per game is simply not much to get excited about. Also, with only six red zone attempts in 98 dropbacks, it was easy to see how the Colts' offense was constructed to utilize his athletic ability as a runner in hopes of creating scoring opportunities.
As the sun rises for the 2024 season, the anticipation is at an all-time high for fantasy managers in terms of fantasy potential. Richardson is what you could consider the ultimate wild card when it comes to drafts. If he stays healthy and lives up to the small glimpse that was shown last season, he has all the makings of a player who could finish the 2024 season as the QB1 in fantasy football.
But "if" is a mighty big word for a player that approaches the game the way that Richardson does. With the reports coming out early that he has bulked up for the 2024 season, all indications are that he is preparing for the rigors of staying on the field for an entire season. This would be music to the ears of fantasy managers who will be willing to roll the dice on Richardson as their QB1 in 2024.
Fantasy Football Verdict
The decision between these two quarterbacks for 2024 comes down to selecting a player with the safer floor versus a "shoot for the moon" type of potential. Sure, Stroud has the easy advantage when it comes to upside in the passing game. But on the other side of the coin, Richardson is by far and away the better option as a running threat, something that tends to be the deciding factor for many fantasy managers when the clock is ticking. Simply put, Stroud is just not a threat in this area, as his 167 rushing yards barely eclipsed Richardson (136) with 11 more games played.
With an offseason to get healthy and more acclimated to the NFL, if Richardson can narrow the gap from a passing perspective with Stroud, his potential value with rushing yardage could propel him over Stroud in fantasy scoring by the end of 2024. So when it comes down to the decision between these two players, give me the otherworldly potential in Richardson as I am a player that likes to take on the risk and gamble.
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