X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Should Clayton Kershaw Be the Number One Fantasy Pick?

Very few fantasy baseballers have Clayton Kershaw ranked as the top player on their board. But should they?

This article will examine just that topic using z-score rankings based on Steamer projections.

Editor's note: for even more draft prep, visit our awesome 2017 fantasy baseball rankings dashboard. It has lots of in-depth staff rankings and draft strategy columns. You will find tiered rankings for every position, 2017 impact rookie rankings, AL/NL only league ranks and lots more. Bookmark the page, and win your drafts.

 

How we Performed the Analysis

First, a quick primer on how we calculated these rankings and values: we used the standard deviation and mean (components of z-score) based on a sample of the top 120 starting pitchers, as ranked by 2017 projected WAR. We then calculated z-scores for the four standard 5x5 starting pitcher categories (W, K, WHIP, ERA) for the top 190 pitchers, and averaged the four categorical z-scores together.

The reason we used a 120-starting pitcher sample for the z-score calculation is that in most fantasy leagues, at most 120 pitchers will be relevant. Using larger samples would have skewed the results inappropriately. The reason we ranked the top 190 pitchers is, well, we like to go deep at RotoBaller!

Additionally, because starting pitchers only contribute in four categories, compared to hitters’ five, we reduced the pitchers’ averaged z-scores by 20% to make them comparable to outfielders.  The reason this is necessary is that we want to look at total value returned by a player. If Kershaw only contributed strikeouts, and had a z-score of 5, it wouldn't be fair to use that 5 as a point of comparison to Trout's average z-score of 2.174 across five categories. Thus, the 20% deduction makes sense. Below is a chart of the top ten hitters and top ten pitchers with these adjustments:

TOP TEN PITCHERS ADJUSTED Z-SCORE TOP TEN HITTERS Z-SCORE
Clayton Kershaw 2.768 Mike Trout 2.174
Max Scherzer 1.952 Mookie Betts 1.864
Noah Syndergaard 1.690 Miguel Cabrera 1.615
Madison Bumgarner 1.488 Manny Machado 1.591
Chris Sale 1.416 Jose Altuve 1.586
Corey Kluber 1.400 Nolan Arenado 1.531
Stephen Strasburg 1.248 Trea Turner 1.498
Carlos Carrasco 1.176 Bryce Harper 1.498
Jon Lester 1.112 Paul Goldschmidt 1.394
David Price 1.112 Kris Bryant 1.335

 

The Argument for Kershaw as the Top Pick

Wow. Kershaw’s adjusted score is 27.3% higher than Mike Trout’s and 41.8% higher than the next highest pitcher! How could he not be number one? Moreover, a starting pitcher with over 200 innings takes up a larger percentage of your innings than a hitter does of your total games, so you could argue Kershaw’s exceptional rate stats are undervalued relative to hitters. However, these pitchers’ wins and strikeouts are overvalued by the z-score, as they are not rate stats and get a boost from the number of innings.

While many feel starting pitchers are not as valuable due to the ability to stream pitchers, this line of thinking is flawed with respect to elite pitchers who you will start every week. Rosters are not large enough, nor waiver wires deep enough, to stream all your pitcher slots. In fact, the ability to stream the back end of your rotation makes backend starters less valuable, increasing the relative value of top-end starters. Thus, I rank the middling starting pitchers lower than my peers.

But, there are surely arguments against Kershaw as the number one starter as well…

 

The Argument Against Kershaw as the Top Pick

Ranking Pitchers by These Scores Requires Moving the Other Pitchers Far Up in the Rankings

By these rankings, the other pitchers’ overall rankings are: Scherzer (3), Syndergaard (5), Bumgarner (12), Sale (13), Strasburg (14), etc. Thus, using this method requires the conclusion that we are undervaluing elite starting pitching generally, rather than undervaluing Kershaw per se.

Is this the case? Maybe not. Starting pitchers are higher injury risks, and their value needs to be decreased to account for that risk. Moreover, one of their four categories (wins) is dependent on a significant amount of luck; while we can argue how much luck is involved in a pitcher’s win loss record, most would agree that it is more than is involved in the hitters’ categories.

For these reasons, we can adjust the scores so that the other pitchers’ rankings are closer to their ADP. Adjusting the scores so that Scherzer falls to his ADP of 9th has Kershaw (2), Syndergaard (14), Bumgarner (17), Sale (20), Kluber (21), Strasburg (24). These rankings still seem to rank starting pitchers higher than our perception. If we adjust Scherzer to half way between Turner/Harper (tied for 8th) and the next hitter (Goldschmidt), we get Kershaw (2), Syndergaard (14), Bumgarner (19), Sale (20), Kluber (21), Strasburg (24)…Lester (39). These rankings are still a little higher than ADP would suggest, but they are fairly close and still have Kershaw second.

 

Steamer Is Overprojecting Kershaw Relative to Other Starters

Steamer projects Kershaw for 17 wins, a 2.29 era, 0.93 WHIP and 258 strikeouts. Those seem reasonable. However, Steamer’s second lowest ERA projection is 3.05. The second lowest WHIP is 1.02. The second highest win total is 15. That explains why Kershaw’s z-score is nearly 50% better than the second-best pitcher, and more than 100% higher than the seventh best pitcher, despite an apparently reasonable projection. Kershaw certainly could lap the field in all these categories as Steamer projects, but that is the optimistic bound of outcomes. If we adjust his relative projections down, the case for him as the No. 1 overall pick loses strength.

 

The Sample Size for Our Calculations May Affect the Relative Value of Pitchers and Hitters

The z-scores were based on 120 starting pitchers versus 250 batters. The question is whether the relative number of batters versus starting pitchers was off, such that the sample size unnecessarily favors one versus the other. If it favored pitchers relative to hitters, as ADP suggests, that would also weigh against Kershaw as number one.

 

Conclusion

Using z-scores, Kershaw is the clear No. 1 pick. However, due mainly to injury risk and partially to the luck involved in win-loss record, I adjust the pitchers downward. While I have Kershaw close to Trout, I have him third due to how highly I value Mookie Betts. Having Kershaw third also allows me to be logically consistent with where I ranked my other pitchers, whereas putting him first would require an upward adjustment of the others.




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Logan O'Hoppe9 mins ago

Hits Grand Slam On Wednesday
Byron Buxton16 mins ago

Doubles, Homers, Drives In Two On Wednesday
Nico Hoerner22 mins ago

Swipes Two Bags On Wednesday
Oneil Cruz29 mins ago

Homers In Win Over Rays
Dylan Moore34 mins ago

Homers In Win Wednesday
Luis Arraez39 mins ago

Homers, Steals A Base In Win On Wednesday
Michael Conforto5 hours ago

Homers, Scores Three Runs
Jace Jung5 hours ago

Hits Home Run No. 2 At Triple-A
Jon Singleton5 hours ago

Signs Minor-League Deal With Mets
Niko Goodrum6 hours ago

Signs Minor-League Deal With Mets
Nick Kurtz6 hours ago

Belts Third Home Run In Last Four Games
Shohei Ohtani6 hours ago

Blasts Walk-Off Home Run
Zac Veen6 hours ago

Triples, Collects Four RBI At Triple-A On Wednesday
Zac Gallen6 hours ago

Strikes Out 13
Luke Waddell7 hours ago

Swinging A Hot Bat At Triple-A
Chandler Simpson7 hours ago

With A Two-Run Triple, Stolen Base On Wednesday
Austin Gomber8 hours ago

Scratched From Rehab Start With Shoulder Inflammation
Zack Wheeler8 hours ago

Records 10 Strikeouts
Aroldis Chapman8 hours ago

Earns First Save Of The Season
Garrett Crochet8 hours ago

Works Eight Strong Innings
Rafael Devers9 hours ago

Finally Delivers At The Plate
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP
10
10
11
11
12
19
13
22
14
24
15
25
16
29
17
39
18
40
19
41

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
1
1
2
3
3
7
4
11
6
14
7
15
8
18
9
19
10
20

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 
UFL RANKINGS, FANTASY FOOTBALL,

UFL Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 2: QB, RB, WR, TE Rankings and Analysis (2025)

Week 2 of the UFL season is just around the corner. This week will feature one game on Friday, one game on Saturday, and two on Sunday. Birmingham and Michigan will play at 8:00 p.m. EDT on Friday, followed by Memphis-D.C. on Saturday at 8:00 p.m. EDT. Sunday's game pits the 1-0 Renegades against the […]


Calvin Ridley - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL DFS Picks, Draft Sleepers

Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings: Overvalued, Undervalued Players (2025)

Dynasty fantasy football rankings constantly shift, especially as we inch closer to the new season and fantasy drafts. Dynasty managers know the importance of finding those underrated players who could be steals in drafts or trades. They also know some players are overhyped due to unsustainable trends or past production. I'll break down two overvalued […]


Justin Fields - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Best Fantasy Football Moves During 2025 NFL Free Agency

It has been a wild offseason so far in the NFL. Plenty of players have switched teams in free agency, and some stars were even traded. Deebo Samuel Sr. was dealt to the Washington Commanders, Geno Smith was traded to the Las Vegas Raiders, and DK Metcalf has a new home with the Pittsburgh Steelers. These […]


Tyreek Hill - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Three Aging Fantasy Football Players To Sell In Dynasty Leagues

It's hard to always know when to sell off your aging fantasy football players. Often, it's also difficult to accept that it's better to move on from a player when he's coming off a productive season and still has a lot left in the tank. But I believe it's better to be a year early […]


J.J. McCarthy - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Draft Sleepers

Five Fantasy Football Superflex Quarterback Breakouts, Draft Targets (2025)

If you’ve ever played in a Superflex fantasy football league, then you know how important quarterbacks are in this format. The ability to start multiple stud quarterbacks can carry you to a Superflex title. Unfortunately, finding two such players isn’t so easy. All the top signal-callers come off draft boards first, and that makes it […]


Omarion Hampton - College Football Rankings, NCAA CFB DFS Lineup Picks - NFL Draft

Ideal Landing Spots For The Top 12 Fantasy Football Rookies - 2025 NFL Draft

Then, the NFL Draft continues to inch closer and closer. This is a very interesting class, with a handful of players who could be stars in the NFL and reshape fantasy football leagues going forward. Here are the ideal landing spots for the top 12 fantasy football rookies. These picks exist in conversation with each […]


Jalen Coker - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Eight Best Ball Late Round Value Fantasy Football Players To Target For 2025

Fantasy football is the most popular game in all of sports. It has gone from a paper-and-pen game to a multi-million dollar-a-year one. While redraft leagues are the most popular form of fantasy football, best ball leagues are quickly gaining steam. The best part of best ball leagues is the ability to draft thousands of […]


Abdul Carter - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2025 NFL Draft Rankings: Top 10 Fantasy Football Edge Rusher Prospects

Edge rusher is the most important, most coveted, and most highly-paid position on defense in the NFL. It stands to reason that the most important position in the entire game being quarterback, and by a wide margin, means the most important position on defense are the players that are tasked with disrupting opposing QBs as […]


Brock Purdy - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Picks

Brock Purdy Dynasty Fantasy Football Outlook and Trade Value

Despite becoming the all-time leading passer for the Iowa State Cyclones, Brock Purdy wasn't a highly touted prospect due to his perceived lack of athleticism. The 49ers picked him with the final pick of the 2022 NFL Draft, but Mr. Irrelevant quickly proved everyone wrong. In his first two years, he started in back-to-back NFC […]


Michael Florio's Football Show - Podcast RotoBaller Network

Florio's Football Show: Scouting NFL Draft Prospects!

Michael F Florio goes over some of the top prospects from this years NFL Draft. Florio talks about what he looks for when watching prospect tape and explains what traits translate best to the NFL level. Be sure to also tune into RotoBaller Radio on SiriusXM (SiriusXM channel 87) on Sundays from 6-7 am. You can […]


Najee Harris - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Dynasty Fantasy Football Buy or Sell: Najee Harris, Rico Dowdle, Jordan Mason

One year ago, we discussed the futures of Josh Jacobs, Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, and Aaron Jones as those free agents found new homes. This year's headliners are Najee Harris, Rico Dowdle, and Jordan Mason. Not quite the same. Still, with every transaction come implications for dynasty fantasy football rosters across the globe. Below, we […]


Romeo Doubs - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Early 2025 Fantasy Football Sleepers: Undervalued NFC Draft Targets

While the 2025 fantasy football redraft season is still several months away, there is no such thing as being too prepared for your fantasy draft. Fantasy football is year-round, even for those who only play in redraft leagues. The landscape of fantasy football will change between today and the start of redraft season, with the […]


Detroit Lions Defense, Aidan Hutchinson - Fantasy Football DST Rankings, Streamers, IDP Sleepers

2025 Fantasy Football IDP Sleepers: Five Draft Targets

It's notably difficult to identify sleepers in fantasy football IDP leagues. The skill of the players in question is very important, but situation also plays a large factor, as does a recent history of injuries. Rather than bucketing them into groups, it's better to analyze each one individually, look at where they are in terms […]