Shohei Ohtani Fantasy Baseball Hitting Outlook for 2024 in Dodgers Lineup

While other trades were happening last week, much of the collective attention of folks following baseball was still centered around where two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani would be signing. There were some reports that he was signing with Toronto and that he was even on a plane destined for that city, however, that report proved false.

Finally, on Saturday, December 9, we got the news that Ohtani was signing with the Dodgers for a record $700 million.

Now that we know where he's going, let's take a look at where he fits into this Dodgers team, both as a hitter and a pitcher.

Shohei Ohtani's Role in 2024

After having surgery late last season to repair a UCL tear in his elbow, Ohtani will not pitch for the Dodgers in 2024. His role will be to act as the primary designated hitter, and while veteran J.D. Martinez had a fine season in 2023, Ohtani is an upgrade over him:

Ohtani spent about half of his ABs in 2023 batting out of the second spot in the order, and the other half out of the third spot. Both spots clearly suit him, and there were a handful of instances where he even batted leadoff, but it remains to be seen where the Dodgers will slot him in. Pencil Betts in as the leadoff hitter, but Freddie Freeman hit out of the two-hole exclusively in '23, so Freeman will need to move down in the order if the Dodgers want Ohtani to hit there.

Ohtani is an on-base machine, with an elite walk rate (15.2% in '23) and xwOBA (.428 in '23). Freeman can hit any pitcher in the league and do so to all fields, so it could be a perfect match. Ohtani has the speed to get into scoring position if needed (20 SB in '23) so he could see his run totals improve hitting in this Dodgers lineup. Freeman may even provide some protection in the lineup if he has another season like he did in '23, so it's possible Ohtani get more pitches to hit than he otherwise would have with the Angels.

Knowing he won't be pitching could allow him to focus more on hitting and he won't be fatigued from throwing 100 pitches during the week, so while his season at the plate was fantastic in '23, there looks to be at least some potential to outproduce those numbers in '24. Also, any concern of his recovery getting in the way of his hitting should be nonexistent, as after he suffered the injury on August 23, he went on to hit .300 over his final nine games (9-for-30, 4 2B, 1 3B, 13 BB:7 K, 3 SB).

This Shohei Ohtani combo of exit velo and launch angle was impressive enough on its own but for it to go in that direction was just ridiculous.

Humans don't hit baseballs like that. 🦄 pic.twitter.com/nKuNEjim0f

— Codify (@CodifyBaseball) November 25, 2023

Pitching For the Dodgers in 2025

While we know that Ohtani will be in the front-end of the Dodgers' rotation in 2025, it's hard to say who will be around him due to free agency (i.e. Clayton Kershaw) and players returning from injury (i.e. Tony Gonsolin, Dustin May). It matters not for fantasy though, and we know that this Dodgers lineup (5.53 runs/game in '23) is more potent than the Angels lineup (4.56 runs/game in '23). Assuming that is still the case in 2025, Ohtani will be in line for more W's than he's seen in the past (career-high 15 in '22, just 10 in '23).

Taking a look at his last three seasons, 2022 was his best from a pitching perspective when he finished fourth in AL Cy Young voting, but it may be hard to duplicate that performance as he gets older (he'll be 30 to begin the 2025 season). However, 2021 and 2023 were similar from a stat perspective and it would be fair to expect those results from Ohtani when he pitches again.

Ohtani is currently being drafted around pick 12 in fantasy leagues, just behind Aaron Judge, but before Yordan Alvarez and Corey Seager. Given the lack of stolen bases, injury history, and age, Ohtani seems like a better bet for fantasy production than Judge, so you could bump him up in front of Judge on your cheat sheets.

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