X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

ADP Champ or Chump - Shane Bieber and Matt Chapman

The new year is upon us, which means that it's officially time to start preparing for your 2019 fantasy baseball drafts (if you haven't yet). This column will take a deep dive into two player profiles to attempt to predict how players will perform for their fantasy owners before they take the plunge. We'll start by using ADP (Average Draft Position) data from NFBC drafts to determine the cost associated with owning a player, but that's subject to change as more data becomes available.

We'll start the year off on a positive note, as I'm sharing two of my favorite values for the upcoming season. Pitcher Shane Bieber has the upside of an ace outside of the top-150 taken, while 3B Matt Chapman has the contact quality to support a 40-HR season.

Let's take a closer look at these potential values.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and weekly lineup resources:

 

The Fantasy Jury is Out

Shane Bieber (SP, CLE) - ADP: 161.75

Bieber had a solid rookie campaign in 2018, going 11-5 with a 4.55 ERA that masked a solid 3.30 xFIP over 114 2/3 IP. The 23-year old's success was foreshadowed by his work on the farm, which I wrote about here at the time of his MLB call-up. This article will focus exclusively on what he did in the Show last year.

If you clicked on the link above, you know that Bieber's MO is strikeouts with very few walks. That's pretty much what he did last year, posting a 24.3% K% and 4.7% BB% for a K-BB% of nearly 20 percent. If you don't have the time to really dig into a pitcher's performance, a K-BB% of 20 percent or higher is generally a good indication that you want to own a particular arm. Bieber produced those numbers with a four-pitch mix. He only threw his changeup 3.9% of the time last season, giving us three pitches with worthwhile samples to consider. Bieber's fastball is his most-used offering at 57.3% of total pitches thrown. It doesn't generate many whiffs (4.9% SwStr%), instead setting up the rest of Bieber's arsenal with a sky-high Zone% of 62.4%.

Bieber's preferred put-away pitch is a devastating slider. Bieber can throw it for a strike when he wants to (44.5% Zone% last year), but it's at its most effective outside of the zone. Batters chase it at a whopping 52.9% clip and swing through it at an impressive 26.2% rate, making it one of the better strikeout pitches in the game today. Bieber's slider isn't predictable because his curve is also a plus strikeout pitch. It doesn't quite generate the slider's whiffs (14.5% SwStr%) or its chase rate (40.6%), but it's still perfectly capable of striking out a big league batter.

The most common criticism of Bieber is that he throws too many strikes, allowing opponents to make consistently hard contact that dooms him to elevated BABIP and HR/FB marks whenever the ball is in play. At first glance, his .356 BABIP allowed and 12.1% HR/FB support this theory. A closer look, however, reveals that Bieber is not to blame for either of those numbers. According to Baseball Savant, airborne batted balls off of Bieber averaged 92.5 MPH off of the bat in 2018. That's almost perfectly league average. Likewise, his 7% rate of Brls/BBE (or Barrels per Batted Ball Event) was league average. His exit velocity allowed on ground balls (86.8 MPH) was a little high, but well-struck ground balls aren't as problematic as those in the air.

Baseball Savant has "expected stats" that reveal the production a batter should have had (or a pitcher should have given up) based on the exit velocity and launch angle of the batted balls he was involved with. Bieber allowed an average of .285 last season, but only deserved a BAA of .255. That's 30 points lower! Likewise, his .423 xSLG was significantly lower than his .467 SLG allowed. If Bieber didn't "deserve" his BABIP and HR/FB, why were they elevated? Luck played a role, but atrocious defense seems like a big reason his ERA was so much higher than his xFIP. The Indians outfield compiled -15 Outs Above Average last season, but leading offenders Melky Cabrera (-6) and Michael Brantley (-4) won't be on the team in 2019. Tyler Naquin (-4) wasn't any good defensively either, but he's currently slated for a platoon role (pending any additional offseason moves). Thus, the outfield defense behind Bieber figures to be substantially better in 2019 than it was in 2018.

Meanwhile, the team's infield defense is solid. Bieber himself is a scratch defender (zero DRS). The team's new first base combination of Carlos Santana (zero DRS) and Jake Bauers (-1 DRS) also looks to be scratch. Shortstop Francisco Lindor is amazing (14 DRS), and 3B Jose Ramirez was solid last year (three DRS). The only weakness is Jason Kipnis at 2B (-5 DRS), and at some point, you have to figure the contending Indians will realize that he just isn't that good.

In summation, Bieber generates strikeouts without many walks. He pitches for a contending team in a weak division and figures to have more defensive support this year than he had last. There is some risk that he gets crowded out of a very strong Cleveland rotation, but the same thing was said about Mike Clevinger at this point last season. Do you really want to miss on a mound breakout?

Verdict: Champ

 

Matt Chapman (3B, OAK) - ADP: 102.31

Chapman is another guy I covered last year. If you want to read about his work before 2018, click here. This article will concentrate exclusively on his .278/.356/.508 line with 24 HR from 2018.

In the article above, I noted that Chapman's plate discipline wasn't nearly as bad as it looked in his initial taste of MLB. He proved me right, cutting his K% to 23.7% on the back of a 24.5% chase rate and 8.8% SwStr% last season. He can be passive at the plate at times (41.4% Swing%), but he might have even more K% upside as he grows more comfortable as an MLB player.

I was more concerned about Chapman's BABIP, but he came through there as well with a .338 mark. His ground balls were outstanding (.302 BABIP), thanks in large part to the league's highest exit velocity on ground balls with a minimum of 400 batted ball events (92.7mph). Chapman is faster than you might think (28.3 ft.sec Statcast Sprint Speed, 27.0 is league average) and has no issue with the shift (.392 last season), so he projects for an elevated BABIP on ground balls moving forward even if .302 is likely to prove unsustainable.

Still, his overall BABIP is likely to be driven down by a FB% tendency (39.3% last year) and a lot of pop-ups (13.9% IFFB%). He also approached a league average LD% last season (20.4%) despite not cracking 20% at any other stop of his professional career. It's possible that he has figured out how to hit line drives, but it's safer to assume some regression and be pleasantly surprised by any other outcome.

The reason to roster Chapman is his power potential. His 95.9 MPH average airborne exit velocity last year ranked 33rd in the league, a trend that pairs nicely with his strong fly ball tendencies. In fact, it wouldn't be shocking to see his FB% increase based on his MiLB numbers. He also rates above average at barrelling up the baseball (8.9% rate of Brls/BBE last year), and pulls enough of his fly balls for the occasional cheapy (28.5% Pull% on flies last year). Chapman is seemingly locked into the heart of Oakland's batting order, giving him plenty of counting stat potential.

Overall, Chapman is probably a .250-.260 hitter with a chance to hit 35 HR from a prime lineup spot. That seems very worthwhile once the top 100 are off of the board!

Verdict: Champ

More Fantasy Baseball Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Bucky Irving12 mins ago

Officially Questionable Against The Chiefs
Ezekiel Elliott49 mins ago

Inactive For Week 9
Kevin Huerter1 hour ago

Out Versus Toronto
Stephen Curry2 hours ago

Spotted At Shootaround
Lauri Markkanen2 hours ago

Out Again On Saturday
Puka Nacua2 hours ago

Expected To Play
JuJu Smith-Schuster2 hours ago

Juju Smith-Schuster Ruled Out For Week 9
Bryce Young2 hours ago

Panthers Not Considering Moving Bryce Young
Cooper Kupp3 hours ago

Rams Not Expected To Move Cooper Kupp
Davante Adams3 hours ago

Jets Not Expected To Move Garrett Wilson, Davante Adams
Drake Maye3 hours ago

Clears Concussion Protocol, Will Play In Week 9
Robbie Ray3 hours ago

Doesn't Opt Out Of Contract, Stays With Giants
Tee Higgins3 hours ago

Bengals Not Looking To Trade Tee Higgins
3 hours ago

Yankees Could Make Play For Pete Alonso This Offseason
Jaylen Brown3 hours ago

Won't Play On Saturday Night
Sean Manaea3 hours ago

Opts Out Of Contract, Becomes Free Agent
Cody Bellinger3 hours ago

Picks Up $27.5 Million Player Option With Cubs
Gerrit Cole4 hours ago

Opts Out Of Contract With Yankees
Rhys Hoskins6 hours ago

Staying In Milwaukee
6 hours ago

Seattle Declines Club Option On Jorge Polanco
Luke Weaver7 hours ago

Returning To New York
Josh Downs7 hours ago

Cleared To Play In Week 9
Eugenio Suárez7 hours ago

Arizona Picks Up Club Option On Eugenio Suarez
Michael Pittman Jr.7 hours ago

Will Play In Week 9
DK Metcalf7 hours ago

Has Strong Chance To Return In Week 11
Nikolaj Ehlers8 hours ago

Totals Four Points Versus Blue Jackets
Igor Shesterkin9 hours ago

Stops 40 Shots Versus Senators
Aleksander Barkov9 hours ago

Amasses Four Points In Finland
Dan Vladar9 hours ago

Shuts Out Devils Friday Night
Adam Pelech9 hours ago

Makes Early Exit Versus Sabres
Mike Reilly9 hours ago

Exits Friday's Action With Injury
NHL9 hours ago

Nathan Bastian Suffers Jaw Injury On Friday
Jordan Clarkson17 hours ago

Out At Least A Week
Kyle Kuzma17 hours ago

Out Again On Saturday
Jamal Murray17 hours ago

Won't Return On Friday Night
Giannis Antetokounmpo17 hours ago

Anticipated To Play Versus Cleveland
Puka Nacua18 hours ago

Has A Shot To Play In Week 9
Jordan Love18 hours ago

Tracking To Play In Week 9
Stephen Curry21 hours ago

Unavailable Saturday
Yves Missi21 hours ago

Expected To Take The Court Friday
Karl-Anthony Towns21 hours ago

Available On Friday
Eric Comrie21 hours ago

Faces Blue Jackets Friday
Daniel Theis21 hours ago

Likely To Suit Up Friday
David Savard21 hours ago

Sits Out Practice For Maintenance Purposes
De'Anthony Melton22 hours ago

Unavailable Saturday
Jordan Hawkins22 hours ago

Expected To Play Friday
Alexander Romanov22 hours ago

Ready To Play Friday
Al Horford22 hours ago

Resting Against Charlotte
Evgeni Malkin22 hours ago

Takes Maintenance Day On Friday
Andrew Wiggins22 hours ago

Probable For Saturday's Matchup With Houston
Rose Namajunas22 hours ago

An Underdog At UFC Edmonton
D'Angelo Russell22 hours ago

Will Suit Up Versus Toronto
Devon Levi22 hours ago

Returns To Sabres Crease
Clayton Kershaw22 hours ago

To Undergo Two Surgeries
Anthony Davis22 hours ago

Available Against Toronto
Erin Blanchfield22 hours ago

Returns At UFC Edmonton
Brandon Lowe22 hours ago

Rays Pick Up Club Option On Brandon Lowe
Ryan Hartman22 hours ago

Rejoins Wild Lineup Friday
Zach LaVine22 hours ago

Will Play Against Brooklyn
22 hours ago

Nick Martinez Headed To Free Agency
Erik Cernak22 hours ago

Available On Friday
Marc-Andre Barriault22 hours ago

Dustin Stoltzfus Set To Face Marc-Andre Barriault At UFC Edmonton
Brent Suter22 hours ago

Inks Extension With Cincinnati
Immanuel Quickley22 hours ago

Out Again On Friday Night
CJ McCollum22 hours ago

Out At Least Two Weeks
22 hours ago

Yankees, Mets Among Teams In Battle For Juan Soto
Marc-Andre Barriault23 hours ago

A Favorite At UFC Edmonton
Blake Snell23 hours ago

Opts Out Of Deal With San Francisco
Josh Jacobs23 hours ago

Questionable For Sunday
Drake Maye23 hours ago

Questionable For Week 9
Tyler Boyd24 hours ago

Tony Pollard, Tyler Boyd Listed As Questionable
Tyjae Spears24 hours ago

Ruled Out For Week 9
Calvin Ridley24 hours ago

Off The Injury Report
Trevin Giles24 hours ago

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Noah Fant24 hours ago

Ruled Out For Week 9
Brian Robinson Jr.1 day ago

Questionable For Week 9
Mike Malott1 day ago

Opens Up UFC Edmonton Main Card
Zach Benson1 day ago

Could Play Next Week
Jani Hakanpaa1 day ago

And Connor Dewar Sent On Conditioning Stint
Dmitri Voronkov1 day ago

Ready For Season Debut Friday
Mathew Barzal1 day ago

Getting Tests Done For Upper-Body Injury
Vladimir Tarasenko1 day ago

Ready To Go For Saturday
Mark Stone1 day ago

Misses Practice Due To Birth Of Child
Tomás Nosek1 day ago

Tomas Nosek Ready For Panthers Debut On Friday
1 day ago

Royals Decline Option On Adam Frazier
1 day ago

Manuel Margot, Kyle Farmer Headed To Free Agency
1 day ago

Milwaukee Declines Option On Wade Miley
Lucas Giolito1 day ago

Staying In Boston
Chris Stratton1 day ago

Hunter Renfroe, Chris Stratton Returning To Kansas City
Jordan Montgomery1 day ago

Staying In Arizona
Brendson Ribeiro2 days ago

Searching For 1st UFC Win At UFC Edmonton
Caio Machado2 days ago

Drops Down To Light Heavyweight At UFC Edmonton
Jhonata Diniz2 days ago

Gets Big Step-Up At UFC Edmonton
Derrick Lewis2 days ago

Faces An Unranked Heavyweight At UFC Edmonton
Amir Albazi2 days ago

An Underdog At UFC Edmonton
Brandon Moreno2 days ago

Ends Layoff At UFC Edmonton
Chase Elliott5 days ago

Comes Up Short at Homestead
William Byron5 days ago

Rallies to Sixth at Homestead
Kyle Larson5 days ago

Tire Issue at Homestead Could Doom Kyle Larson's Championship Hopes
Tyler Reddick5 days ago

Charges To A Thrilling Victory At Homestead
Ryan Blaney5 days ago

Loses At Homestead On The Final Corner To Tyler Reddick
Christopher Bell5 days ago

Quietly Nabs A Top-5 Finish At Homestead
Khamzat Chimaev5 days ago

Remains Undefeated
Robert Whittaker5 days ago

Gets Submitted At UFC 308
Aleksandar Rakic5 days ago

Drops Decision At UFC 308
Armen Petrosyan5 days ago

Knocked Out At UFC 308
Shara Magomedov5 days ago

Gets Highlight-Reel Knockout Win At UFC 308
Joey Logano6 days ago

Intentionally Sleepwalked Through Homestead to Focus on Phoenix
Denny Hamlin6 days ago

Advances to Championship 4 as Owner but Not as Driver
Dan Ige6 days ago

Loses Second-Straight Fight At UFC 308
Lerone Murphy6 days ago

Remains Undefeated At UFC 308
Magomed Ankalaev6 days ago

Wins Lackluster Decision Win At UFC 308
Max Holloway6 days ago

Gets Knocked Out For First Time At UFC 308

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 
Keon Coleman - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Key Starters and Tough Calls - Week 9 Lineup Spotlights for Fantasy Football Include Ladd McConkey, Keon Coleman, Joe Flacco

Scott Engel’s Lineup Spotlights are an essential weekly feature on RotoBaller.com for the 2024 fantasy football season. Every week, he focuses on players to choose as starting options when you are dealing with tight lineup decisions. The lineup picks included in this rundown are based on Scott’s Premium Weekly Lineup Rankings, available as part of the RotoBaller […]


Ladd McConkey - Fantasy Football Rankings, Rookies, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Wide Receiver Matchups to Target in Week 9 - Terry McLaurin, Chris Olave, Ladd McConkey, Jakobi Meyers

Welcome to WR Matchups to Target for Week 9. Last week’s picks yielded one “in the money” pick (3x multiplier on DraftKings salary) in Keon Coleman, giving us 11 such picks over the first eight weeks of the season. Each week, we will use matchup data from PFF to determine which wide receivers to target […]


Brian Thomas Jr - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Who Should I Start? Sunday Fantasy Football Lineup Decisions for Week 9 (2024) - Diontae Johnson, Keon Coleman, Jalen Tolbert, Brian Thomas, Jakobi Myers, Brian Robinson, Keenan Allen, Tee Higgins, Bo Nix

It's almost time for Sunday football. Who Should I Start? Who Should I Sit? Set your optimal fantasy football lineups for Sunday football and Week 9 of the 2024 NFL season. Our free Who Should I Start? tool will help make your fantasy football lineup decisions. Compare up to four NFL players, and we tell […]


Bryce Young - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

High-Upside Bench Stashes: Weekend Waiver Wire Adds for Week 9 Includes Jalen Coker, Troy Franklin, Jaylen Wright, Erick All Jr., Kimani Vidal, Blake Corum

Mastering the waiver wire is a crucial skill that can lead you to a fantasy football championship. It's not just about strategically placing your FAAB budget on specific players but also about knowing when to stash players. This dual strategy keeps you engaged and focused on your ultimate goal of winning a fantasy championship. As […]


Video: Week 9 Booms, Sleepers, and Streamers - 2024 Fantasy Football Start 'Em Analysis

Let's go, RotoBallers! We are back and dropping fire content for the weekend ahead with our top Week 9 booms, sleepers, and streamers! NFL Network and RotoBaller contributor LaQuan Jones gives in-depth fantasy football advice, breaking down some of his high-upside, sleeper, and value plays as we head into Week 9 of the new fantasy […]


Josh Downs - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Buy Low, Sell High Week 9 Fantasy Football Trade Value Recommendations - Josh Downs, Chris Olave, Cedric Tillman, more

Welcome to Week 9 of the NFL season! We’re deep into the grind where every decision counts more than ever. With injuries piling up and bye weeks affecting lineups, knowing when to buy low or sell high can be the key to revitalizing your team. Whether riding high after a win or looking to bounce […]


Jameis Winston - NFL DFS Picks, Waiver Wire, Fantasy Football Rankings

Week 9 Superflex 2QB Rankings for Fantasy Football: Updates for Jameis Winston, Joe Flacco, Matthew Stafford, Daniel Jones, Trevor Lawrence, Drake Maye

With quarterbacks beginning to get benched or banged up, some backup quarterbacks are entering lineups and have become viable in Superflex and two-QB leagues. Our Week 9 fantasy football Superflex rankings (2QB) for 2024 are here to help you close start-or-sit calls between comparable options. Below, you can see where RotoBaller has key Superflex options […]


Bucky Irving - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings (2024) - Week 9 Updates Include Rhamondre Stevenson, Zay Flowers, Rashod Bateman, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Bucky Irving

Incredibly, Week 9 has already kicked off, and Thursday's game is already in the books. It's time to start reviewing your dynasty leagues to decide whether to make a run for the championship or sell off for next year. There were some big trades in the NFL recently, with DeAndre Hopkins heading to Kansas City […]


Chris Olave - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Week 9 PPR Rankings for Fantasy Football: Overall Updates Include Marvin Harrison, Chris Olave, Amari Cooper, Jayden Reed, Rachaad White, Nick Chubb

The Week 9 slate brings a must-win situation to many fantasy managers, so it's time to lock in and set optimal fantasy football lineups. Below, you'll see our NFL team's updated Week 9 fantasy football PPR rankings for 2024. Let's see where key players like Cooper Kupp, T.J. Hockenson, Jaylen Waddle, Tank Bigsby, Jalen McMillan, […]


Josh Downs - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Week 9 FLEX Rankings for Fantasy Football (RB, WR, TE) - Updates Include Jalen McMillan, Xavier Worthy, Calvin Ridley, Josh Downs, Kareem Hunt, DJ Moore

The fantasy football playoffs will be here before we know it, so if you need a few wins to secure your spot and are looking for lineup advice, you have come to the right place. We're here to help with our NFL team's updated Week 9 fantasy football FLEX rankings for 2024. Comparing two flex […]


Chase Brown - Fantasy Football Rankings, Waiver Wire Pickups, Draft Sleepers

Week 9 Running Back Rankings for Fantasy Football: RB Updates Include Tank Bigsby, Chuba Hubbard, Tyrone Tracy, Chase Brown, Rico Dowdle, JK Dobbins

The running back position has seemingly been the most consistent in fantasy football this season, but things can change in a hurry, so it's important to set optimal lineups each week. Let's get to crucial start-or-sit decisions with help from our updated Week 9 fantasy football running back rankings for 2024. Where do key RBs […]


Cedric Tillman - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Week 9 Wide Receiver Rankings for Fantasy Football: WR Updates Include Cedric Tillman, Darnell Mooney, Khalil Shakir, Romeo Doubs, Jaylen Waddle, more

Ahead of the Week 9 NFL slate, the wide receiver position is the deepest in fantasy football, but that can lead to troubling start-or-sit decisions, especially when comparing two flex-level WR options. We're here to assist with our NFL team's updated Week 9 fantasy football wide receiver rankings for 2024. Let's dive into the rankings […]


Cole Kmet - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL injury News

Week 9 Tight End Rankings for Fantasy Football: TE Updates Include Cade Otton, Cole Kmet, Kyle Pitts, Evan Engram, David Njoku, Tucker Kraft, Sam LaPorta

Tight ends showed out last week on National Tight End Day, so hopefully, the momentum continues for the tough position to analyze and navigate. Below, you'll see our NFL team's updated Week 9 fantasy football tight end rankings for 2024 to help you make tough start-or-sit decisions. Let's dig into the rankings to find out […]