Seiya Suzuki: Champ or Chump for Fantasy Baseball?

Every fantasy manager enters the season with a list of "sleepers," or players they believe will outperform expectations. Sometimes, they pan out. Occasionally, we banish them to waivers in favor of the hot new thing. All too frequently, we deal with mediocrity on our rosters for far too long.

That third category is the one we want to avoid, and it's decision time with the All-Star break rapidly approaching. Seiya Suzuki graced multiple preseason sleeper lists based on a solid campaign in 2022 and expected growth with a year of American experience under his belt, but his managers have received a lackluster .246/.335/.386 line with six homers and a steal across 272 PAs.

Is Suzuki a buy-low target or someone who belongs on waivers in standard mixed leagues? Let's take a look.

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Dissecting 2022 Season For Seiya Suzuki

Since Suzuki was a Japanese import, he doesn't have an extensive MiLB track record to analyze. Instead, most of his professional experience came in Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB): a league that most American fantasy managers know little about. Most experts believe that the quality of the league exceeds Triple-A overall, but the unique schedule, ball, and rules make direct comparisons difficult.

As such, it's worth going through Suzuki's 2022 performance to see any hints of growth or regression. He hit a respectable .262/.336/.433 with 14 HR and nine steals over 446 PAs in his MLB debut, prorating to 20 HR and 12 SB over 600 PAs. We love guys who hit homers and steal bases, so the upside was obvious.

Suzuki also flashed strong plate skills with a 25.6% chase rate and 8 SwStr%, leading to optimism that he could improve his 24.7 K% and raise his average to .280 or better. With a prominent role in the Cubbies lineup, his counting stats were also expected to be robust.

That is understandable, but his profile also had some red flags that the fantasy community ignored. His average airborne exit velocity of 92.5 mph was only league-average, leading to a 12.1% HR/FB that wasn't high enough to take full advantage of his 40 FB%. His 11% rate of Brls/BBE was a little better and his 111.3 max EV suggested some upside, but power growth was not guaranteed.

Furthermore, Suzuki had a .326 BABIP that his underlying contact quality didn't support. His xBA was just .247 per Baseball Savant, so any K% improvement should've been expected to counteract a less fortunate BABIP rather than propel his average into plus territory. His xSLG of .418 likewise suggested that his .433 slugging percentage was a mirage, and his actual mark wasn't that exciting.

Perhaps most importantly for fantasy, Suzuki's nine steals came with five CS for a success rate of 64%. Most teams look for a success rate of at least 70%, and most prefer 75+. As such, we shouldn't have expected Suzuki to maintain his green light and make a run at double-digit steals again.

Dissecting the 2023 Season Of Seiya Suzuki Thus Far

Many managers saw Suzuki as a pure upside play coming into the season when an unbiased examination of his profile suggested more of a high-risk, high-reward option. That said, many of Suzuki's key indicators are trending in the wrong direction this year while his previous weaknesses have become worse.

First, Suzuki's plate discipline has improved slightly with a 22.2 BB% and 7.3% SwStr%, but he's still striking out 25% of the time. With a 38.6 overall Swing%, Suzuki may be too passive at the plate to effectively utilize his eye. Instead, he's taking too many third strikes and hitting in poor counts.

Suzuki's BABIP has declined slightly to .315, and his current average of .246 is nearly identical to his 2022 xBA of .247. His current xBA is .255, so you could argue that Suzuki is a little better than what we've seen so far. At the same time, fantasy managers aren't really looking for an empty batting average in the .250 range.

The average is empty because any semblance of plus power Suzuki showed last year has completely evaporated. His xSLG of .397 is a little better than his actual slugging percentage of .386, but anything that starts with a 3 isn't going to cut it. Suzuki's FB% has fallen to 33.9%, so he's not lifting the ball enough to access his power.

His rate of Brls/BBE is also down to 9.4%, a shift that's overshadowing slight improvements in average airborne EV (93.1 mph) and max EV (113.2). The result is a 10.3% HR/FB that ranks below the league average.

You might think that the new base-stealing rules would've helped guys with poor success rates, but Suzuki was thrown out on an unfathomable five-of-six SB attempts this year: "good" for a success rate of 17%. It's safe to say that Suzuki won't be making up for his lack of power on the bases. He has above-average wheels with a Statcast Sprint Speed of 28.4 ft./sec last year and this, but he seemingly cannot use it to steal bases.

The Verdict on Seiya Suzuki

Projection systems love Suzuki, but their algorithms are still weighing his NPB performance heavily. There is no evidence that Suzuki is about to put up the amazing numbers he posted in Japan in the United States, and projection creators will tell you that the error bars are larger when foreign leagues are involved.

The Cubs have stuck with Suzuki despite his struggles, not only playing him every day (current neck issue notwithstanding) but generally giving him an important lineup role. If you play in an NL-Only league or a mixed league with 20+ teams, consistent playing time is valuable.

If you're looking for quality over quantity though, it's difficult to justify holding Suzuki. He isn't hitting for power, isn't stealing bases, and doesn't have a great average. The 28-year-old is still rostered in 53% of Yahoo! leagues, and that's too high for a Chump with little production or upside.

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