Second Half Breakouts for Fantasy Baseball - Kev Mahserejian's "My Guys"

One of the more fun traditional preseason fantasy baseball columns is a "my guys" article where analysts provide lists of players who they have convictions on for the upcoming season. It's a good way to identify potential value based on a writer's analysis while also tracking the writer's process by seeing if the results pan out.

In this article, I'll highlight "my guys" that I am trying to get on my team for the second half of the fantasy baseball season. Some of them will be players you can still add on waivers and others will be players you need to trade for, but they're all players who are sticking out after underwhelming first-halves or small samples after a recent call-up.

For any questions or concerns, contact me on Twitter/X (@RotoSurgeon). Without further ado, here are "my guys" for the second half of this fantasy baseball season!

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Sean Murphy - C, Atlanta Braves

This may be wishcasting given how much of Sean Murphy I drafted in the preseason but the veteran catcher's best days of this season are ahead of him. Last season, Murphy was one of the 10 best hitters in baseball according to Baseball Savant but bad batted ball luck affected his production, especially in the second half of the season. The Braves' offense is much less impactful this year than in 2023 due to injuries amassed across the diamond. Most importantly, the loss of 2023 NL MVP Ronald Acuna Jr. at leadoff.

Of course, Murphy injured himself while swinging on Opening Day this year and missed over a month of games. He has been mostly useless in fantasy since with just three HR, six runs, eight RBI, and a .213 AVG in 25 games. Nevertheless, Murphy's rolling xwOBA is on the rise over his past 50 plate appearances and he has looked more like himself since that first home run came on June 8th. In this span, he is slashing .264/.339/.472.

Two-homer day for Sean Murphy.

Don't let Atlanta's All-Star catcher get hot. pic.twitter.com/YqJCzIbI1M

— Bally Sports: Braves (@BravesOnBally) June 19, 2024

The Braves will continue to contend despite Acuna's absence and are likely buyers at the trade deadline given their standing 10 games above .500. Reinforcements to a pedestrian 2024 offense could revitalize the team and Murphy moving forward.

Spencer Horwitz - 1B/2B, Toronto Blue Jays

Spencer Horwitz is HOT. He has been a top-5 hitter according to StatCast since his promotion with an expected average of .306 and an expected slugging percentage of .504. The 26-year-old infielder was not highly regarded among Toronto's prospects entering this season but his track record in the minors is impressive. Horwitz regularly struck out and walked at the same rate while making quality contact. His walk rate in the MLB thus far is 16.2% while his strikeout rate is 12.2%.

Spencer Horwitz gets his first home run of the season! 🙌 pic.twitter.com/ZQv5bGa67j

— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) June 23, 2024

The Blue Jays' offense is underwhelming overall but Bo Bichette is back and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has found his groove in recent weeks. Horwitz is batting in the upper third of the order and playing almost daily. He is fringing on a must-roster player moving forward.

Jesus Sanchez - OF, Miami Marlins

As a caveat, this breakout is unlikely to occur on the lowly Marlins' offense but if Sanchez is traded this coming deadline, there is a lot to like. The former top-50 prospect is in the middle of another mediocre season but for what it is worth, he is hitting the ball very well and stealing more bases than usual!

Another 400+ footer from Jesús Sánchez 🚀 pic.twitter.com/m4J56N0lWH

— Fish On First (@FishOnFirst) June 23, 2024

Sanchez is running an xwOBA over .340 since last season but given Miami's poor offensive environment and pitcher-friendly home park, we do not reap much fantasy value from him. If a team like the Dodgers, Braves, or Astros were to trade for Sanchez, we could see a career breakout. For now, leave him on the fantasy wire of non-deep formats like 15+ teamers and keep an eye on the rumor mill.

Walker Buehler - SP, Los Angeles Dodgers

Buehler (hip) is on the IL for now but should return soon after the All-Star break. Given that this issue is more performance-related than injury-related, there is not much concern for his hip as it is likely a phantom ailment. In the eight games he pitched this season, Buehler posted an egregious 5.84 ERA but his actual pitching performance was closer to a league-average 4.20 according to peripheral indicators like xFIP and SIERA. Also, the only start in which he allowed more than three earned runs was in Coors Field where the ball flies.

Walker Buehler, Nasty 78mph Curve. 😨 pic.twitter.com/E9CzeJbtht

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 19, 2024

Buehler's velocity is similar to his pre-2nd TJ form from 2021-2022 where he accumulated a 2.84 ERA. However, his pitch location thus far has been awful. His strikeouts are down and home runs are way up. HR regression should come naturally upon return but a breakout will not occur unless he can begin generating more whiffs. Belief in Buehler is also a belief in the Dodgers' organization to turn their pitchers around. That track record is fairly reliable for those who still have the stuff to perform.

Spencer Schwellenbach - SP, Atlanta Braves

The Braves rookie SP has taken some lumps in this early going, but there is a lot to like in his first few MLB starts. Schwellenbach's 5.68 ERA is not reflected in his 3.78 xFIP, 3.89 xERA, or 3.71 SIERA. He is a good pitcher! Bad luck is bad luck and it happens to every SP. The bad luck in question is his 63.5% left-on-base rate which should be around a league average of 75% by season's end (assuming he stays in the Atlanta rotation).

Spencer Schwellenbach’s numbers each time through the order

First time: 10.2 IP, 2.53 ERA, .301 wOBA
Second time: 11 IP, 4.91 ERA, .290 wOBA
Third time: 5 IP, 12.60 ERA, .475 wOBA

It’s clear that Spencer has stuff, but he’s gonna have to start being more consistent as the game…

— Brady Penn (@bradypenn21) June 30, 2024

Schwellenbach is only 24 and has been excellent throughout his minor league career. He has some pedigree as a former second-round pick and should stick around given the Braves' struggles in keeping their pitching healthy this season. The rookie ended the second half with back-to-back quality starts with one earned run allowed in each, striking out nine versus one walk, and is poised for a solid second half.

Chad Green - RP, Toronto Blue Jays

The Toronto Blue Jays are in an odd position. They are not one of the league's bottom feeders but are in such a tough division they may be forced to sell in this upcoming deadline. If Chad Green is held through this deadline, he could be a second-half champion for save-needy teams. Jordan Romano (elbow) is shut down from throwing again and is likely headed for Tommy John. Meanwhile, Yimi Garcia (elbow) struggled to string together consistent rehab outings.

Chad Green only has two saves this season but more will come if he retains this closer role. He has a 1.45 ERA this season through 19 appearances. His peripherals range from 3.51 to 3.74 but that is still the sign of a good reliever. Garcia is the best reliever of this bunch this season but he may not be the same upon return from his elbow nerve issue. Also, Garcia could be traded while Green is held if the Blue Jays want to hedge. The likeliest scenario is that Toronto deals both Green and Garcia if their season continues this downward trend but given the 2024 closer market, this is the best we can do for hope.

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