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Second base has a lot of question marks and is home to some of the biggest boom or bust players in baseball. Don’t let the scarcity at the position trick you into taking unnecessary risks.
Sometimes all it takes is a few bad picks to completely derail a fantasy baseball season. Avoiding major busts is going to put you at a big advantage, and it’s important to know which guys have the highest chance of dragging your team down.
Busts can mean a lot of different things, but in this case, these are guys that are going relatively early that have a high chance of not returning value. All three of these guys have the potential to be fantastic, but even more of a chance to hurt your team than help it. Here are three second baseman I am avoiding at their ADP for 2022.
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Brandon Lowe, Tampa Bay Rays
Strikeouts are going to be a theme here, and that’s my biggest concern with Brandon Lowe. While he had a career-high 39 HR in 2021, he paired that with 167 Ks, fitting in the 15th percentile in the whole league. Lowe essentially has to give 35+ homers in order to make those Ks worth it, and it’s hard to believe that will happen again.
His 89.3 average exit velocity isn’t terrible, but not what you’re looking for when drafting a power specialist. His .247 batting average and seven steals aren’t helping you much, and it makes it hard for me to see him returning value at pick 72. If it’s power that you’re looking for from Lowe, I would much prefer waiting much deeper in the draft for guys like Franmil Reyes (ADP 113.3) or Jorge Soler (ADP 200.3), just to name a few. I don’t think Lowe will be a complete disaster, but just too early to take a guy that whiffs as much as he does and has only shown elite power once.
Jazz Chisholm, Miami Marlins
Jazz Chisholm is one of the most exciting young players in the game, but maybe take a look at his Baseball Savant page before getting too excited.
There isn’t a ton here to get excited about. His plate discipline is awful, sporting a 28.6 K% and a 6.7 BB%. That’s a 0.23 BB/K ratio, 9th worst in baseball last season. To go with that, his batting average is concerning too. His .248 actual batting average wasn’t great, but his .238 expected average suggests it could have been even worse.
His power and speed potential is certainly high, but I find it hard to rely on Chisholm to be anything more than a glorified steals specialist in 2022. He’s seen his ADP drop from inside the top 75 to around pick 90.7 and could continue to drop. Inside the top 100 is still a bit early to take a gamble on someone with a floor as low as his. t only 24 years old, there is still a lot of room for growth for Chisholm, especially with his plate discipline. That being said, it might be smart to let him go through that development on somebody else’s team in 2022.
Javier Baez, Detroit Tigers
I’m sure everyone reading this knows the risk they are taking if they draft Javier Baez. It’s not much of an exaggeration to say that Baez has looked like the BEST hitter in the league at times and has looked like the WORST hitter in the league other times since his debut in 2014. You never truly know what you’re going to get, and the floor is just way too low at his ADP (71) for me to buy in. His plate discipline is horrendous, as he had the worst K% in his career last year at 33.6% (3rd percentile) and a 5.1 BB% (6th percentile). That’s good for a 0.15 BB/K ratio, dead last among qualified hitters in 2021. While he’s had a decent batting average in the past, the chances of that happening again are only going to decrease as he gets older.
He was great with the Mets last year, hitting .299 with 9 HR and .515 SLG in 47 games, but he isn’t on the Mets anymore. His new home field and lineup in Detroit aren’t going to do him any favors, which is another reason for concern. There is a chance you get Mets Baez for a whole season in 2022 but pick 71 is too early to swing for the fences this hard in drafts.
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