X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

ADP Cost Analysis - Sean Newcomb vs. Freddy Peralta

Two pitchers that have the ability to either strike out five batters in a row or walk five batters in a row, this ADP showdown will pit Sean Newcomb and Freddy Peralta. Newcomb was a first-round pick by the Angels in 2014 and Peralta was nothing more than a sleeper leading into 2018, but each will be players to watch in 2019.

Newcomb is considerably higher in NFBC leagues at around pick 199, while Peralta is going at pick 325. Is it worth waiting more than 100 picks for Peralta or is Newcomb too good to pass up earlier in the draft?

RotoBaller is going to break down all the pressing ADP questions you need to know before draft day.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and weekly lineup resources:

 

Sean Newcomb – Georgia Peach

(ADP 199 Overall)

Sean Newcomb was the key player in the Andrelton Simmons deal for the Braves and, after a few solid seasons in the minors, made it up to the big leagues in 2017. While his 4-9 record, 1.57 WHIP, and 4.32 ERA in 100 innings for Atlanta were not great, his 108 strikeouts were solid. With a 4.19 FIP, there was some room for improvement in 2019.

A 12-9 season in 2018 was an improvement for Newcomb, as was his 3.90 ERA, 7.5 hits per nine allowed, and a drop in walk rate from 12.5% to 11.6%. The biggest sign that Newcomb was making strides to becoming a frontline start was his performance in May/June; over 11 starts (65 1/3 innings), Newcomb was 7-1 with a 2.07 ERA and just 43 hits allowed. The issue, though, was that he posted back-to-back months with a 5.00+ ERA after these strong performances, posting a 3-5 record and 5.88 ERA in July/August. His strikeouts dipped a bit in 2018, to 160 in 164 innings pitched, but his performance in the mid-season shows his potential.

While Newcomb had a strong season on paper, there were some issues when looking at his batted-ball profile. The first issue was with his 34.8% hard hit ball rate and it continued with a 43.4% GB rate and 36% FB rate. When a pitcher has issues with control and is allowing too many hard hit balls as well as fly balls, that usually ends up with trouble; a 11.1% HR/FB rate in his career shows that. As strikeouts are a big part of Newcomb's game, the fact that his swinging strike rate dropped from 11.1% to 10% is not a good sign, nor is his O-Swing% dropping from 30.6% to 26%. The final issue is a rise in contact rate from 75.9% to 77.5%. Newcomb has promise, but he appears to be far from a finished product.

 

Freddy Peralta – Wild Thing

(ADP 325 Overall)

Milwaukee Brewers starting pitcher Freddy Peralta only had a 6-4 record and 4.25 ERA after being called up from the minor leagues in 2018. In his 14 starts, he allowed at least three earned runs in seven of them and walked multiple batters in 11 starts. All of that being said, Peralta is lauded as one of the top starting pitcher sleepers coming into 2019.

So why is Peralta so valuable? The first place to start is the fact that, in 78 1/3 MLB innings, he allowed just 49 hits and struck out 96 batters. In fact, through the majors and minors in 2018, Peralta struck out 188 batters in just 141 1/3 innings, allowing 99 hits. The walk issues show that Peralta is not a finished product (he has walked at least four batters per nine in each of the last three seasons), but his ability to miss bats cannot be understated.

If there is a better way for a player to start their career than Peralta, you will be hard pressed to find it; Peralta allowed one hit in 5 2/3 shutout innings against the Reds on May 13, striking out 13 batters. He then followed that up by allowing no more than three hits in any of his next three starts, pitching throwing six shutout innings against the Pirates and seven against the Royals. The issue with Peralta this season is the poor start in that four-game spell: he allowed six walks in just four innings against the Royals. In fact, after walking two or fewer batters in three of his first four starts, he walked three batters or more in all five of his July starts.

It is quite clear that there is a give and take with Peralta, as he will limit hits and strike out batters, but also will walk far too many batters. Considering that fact, we need to look both at his ability to miss bats and also to induce softer contact. Two key statistics to look at when evaluating Peralta's ability to miss bats are his swinging strike rate and his percentage of pitches swung at outside the zone. At a 28% swinging rate and 10.8% swinging strike rate, Peralta shows that he is able to confuse batters and stifle them with his fastball. He has one of the top fastballs in the league, a good thing considering that his curveball is slightly above average and his changeup (which he only threw 2.8% of the time) is neutral.

As for batted-ball data, Peralta's 30.5% ground ball rate and 41.4% hard-hit ball rate stick out like a sore thumb. Furthermore, with a 52% flyball rate and his inflated hard-hit ball rate, many could say that his 8.7% HR/FB rate was quite lucky as well. His 17.5% line drive rate is the lowest of his career, but hard hit balls in the air should lead to more home runs then they did for Peralta in 2018. As bad as his batted-ball stats look, though, he had a 75.9% contact rate that was top-50 among SP with at least 70 innings pitched.

 

Conclusion

There is not a simple answer to which player to draft. Peralta has less of a track record, is less of pedigreed player, and, honestly, could end up in the minors at times this season. That being said, both have walk issues and Peralta appears to be just as good of (if not better) a strikeout pitcher. There is a good chance that Peralta will continue to have those issues and will need to limit his hard contact, an issue for him in 2018, and keep on striking out batters to get out of jams.

Peralta's value comes in the fact that he is basically unowned in mixed leagues with an ADP at 325. Simply put, Fernando Tatis Jr. has yet to make his MLB debut and, will likely spend a majority of the season in the minors, and his ADP is 304. Newcomb is not a bad player (especially considering his performance in the middle of the season), but there is just too much value in drafting Peralta at the end of the draft.




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

DeVonta Smith42 mins ago

Misses Another Practice
Cody Bellinger1 hour ago

Cubs Looking To Trade Cody Bellinger?
Brandin Cooks1 hour ago

Preparing To Play In Week 12
CeeDee Lamb2 hours ago

Not Seen At Thursday's Practice
2 hours ago

Blake Snell Has Met With Red Sox, Dodgers
Aaron Rodgers2 hours ago

Jets Owner Suggested Benching Aaron Rodgers
Mike Evans4 hours ago

Practicing Again On Thursday
Chandler Stephenson5 hours ago

Registers Three Assists Versus Predators
Jason Robertson5 hours ago

Totals Three Points In Wednesday's Win
Nils Lundkvist5 hours ago

Exits Early With A Lower-Body Injury
Matthew Knies5 hours ago

Sustains An Upper-Body Injury
Mikael Granlund5 hours ago

Exits Late With Injury Wednesday
Patrik Laine6 hours ago

Returns To Practice
Ausar Thompson6 hours ago

Listed As Doubtful For Thursday
Walker Kessler6 hours ago

Still Missing For Jazz
Jordan Clarkson6 hours ago

Questionable To Face Spurs
Devin Vassell6 hours ago

To Miss Third Consecutive Game
Chris Paul6 hours ago

Considered Probable For Thursday's Game
Khris Middleton6 hours ago

Medically Cleared To Play
Chris Sale17 hours ago

Wins National League Cy Young Award
Tarik Skubal17 hours ago

Wins 2024 American League Cy Young Award
Paul George17 hours ago

Exits Game On Wednesday, Hyperextends Left Knee Again
Scoot Henderson18 hours ago

Leaves Game On Wednesday, Won't Return
Jalen Johnson18 hours ago

Active On Wednesday Night
Zach Collins18 hours ago

Uncertain To Play On Thursday
Austin Eckroat19 hours ago

Heads To The RSM Classic After Win
Harris English19 hours ago

Finding Form Heading To The RSM Classic
Ben Griffin19 hours ago

Continues Playing Well Heading To The RSM Classic
Denny McCarthy19 hours ago

Returns to The RSM Classic
Patrick Williams19 hours ago

Likely To Miss At Least One Week
Kyle Anderson19 hours ago

Available For Matchup With Hawks
Victor Wembanyama19 hours ago

Out Again On Thursday
Jusuf Nurkic19 hours ago

Available On Wednesday
Stephen Curry19 hours ago

Will Play Against Atlanta
De'Anthony Melton19 hours ago

To Undergo Season-Ending ACL Surgery
Tre Mann19 hours ago

Probable For Thursday Night Matchup Against Detroit
Mike Conley19 hours ago

Appears On Injury Report For Thursday With Toe Injury
Donte DiVincenzo20 hours ago

Questionable Heading Into Thursday
Josh Jacobs20 hours ago

Limited With Multiple Injuries
DeVonta Smith20 hours ago

Misses Practice On Wednesday
Isaiah Hartenstein20 hours ago

To Make Season Debut On Wednesday
Tyrese Maxey20 hours ago

Active On Wednesday
Seth Jones22 hours ago

Expected To Miss Four Weeks
Sam Darnold22 hours ago

Limited With Foot Injury
Max Domi22 hours ago

Placed On Injured Reserve
Jalen Hurts22 hours ago

Limited On Wednesday
Connor Ingram22 hours ago

Out Day-To-Day With An Upper-Body Injury
Jake Ferguson22 hours ago

Picks Up A DNP On Wednesday
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen22 hours ago

Returns To Action Versus Kings
CeeDee Lamb22 hours ago

Listed As Limited, Dealing With Two Injuries
Alex Tuch22 hours ago

Available Wednesday
Tage Thompson22 hours ago

Remains Out On Wednesday
Sam LaPorta23 hours ago

Practicing In Full
Jordan Eberle23 hours ago

To Remain Out On Wednesday
George Kittle23 hours ago

Will Play In Week 12
Ludvig Aberg23 hours ago

Looks To Defend RSM Classic Title
Ladd McConkey23 hours ago

Does Not Practice On Wednesday
Si Woo Kim23 hours ago

An Intriguing Option At RSM Classic
Maverick McNealy23 hours ago

In Solid Form Ahead Of RSM Classic
Eric Cole23 hours ago

Chasing First Tour Victory At RSM Classic
San Francisco 49ers23 hours ago

Nick Bosa Does Not Practice On Wednesday
Christian McCaffrey23 hours ago

Does Not Practice On Wednesday
George Kittle24 hours ago

Limited During Wednesday's Practice
Brock Purdy24 hours ago

Limited On Wednesday
Alexander Mattison1 day ago

Zamir White Not Practicing On Wednesday
Sam LaPorta1 day ago

Trending Towards Playing In Week 12
Calvin Ridley1 day ago

Out Wednesday With Illness
Connor Bedard1 day ago

Ends Drought With Two Assists
Sam Reinhart1 day ago

Pushes Point Streak To 11 Games
Mark Scheifele1 day ago

Celebrates Ninth Career Hat Trick
Evan Bouchard1 day ago

Rocks Senators With Three-Point Period
Connor McDavid1 day ago

Nets Two Goals During Three-Point Night
TB1 day ago

Nicholas Paul Exits Early With Injury Tuesday
Zach Hyman1 day ago

Sits Out Third Period Versus Senators
2 days ago

Guardians' Stephen Vogt Named AL Manager Of The Year
Milwaukee Brewers2 days ago

Pat Murphy Named NL Manager Of The Year
Jonas Brodin2 days ago

Returns To Action
2 days ago

Nick Pivetta Declines Boston's Qualifying Offer
Jose Siri2 days ago

Mets Acquire Jose Siri From The Rays
2 days ago

Phillies To Meet With Juan Soto
2 days ago

Luis Severino Rejects Qualifying Offer From Mets
2 days ago

Willy Adames Declines Brewers Qualifying Offer
2 days ago

Teoscar Hernandez Declines Qualifying Offer From Dodgers
2 days ago

Juan Soto Declines Yankees' Qualifying Offer
Luis Gil3 days ago

Wins AL Rookie Of The Year Award
Paul Skenes3 days ago

Named 2024 NL Rookie Of The Year
Brady Singer3 days ago

Reds, Royals Discussing Jonathan India, Brady Singer
3 days ago

Sean Manaea To Reject Mets' Qualifying Offer
3 days ago

Braves Have Interest In Walker Buehler
3 days ago

Astros Interested In Willy Adames
Charles Oliveira3 days ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Michael Chandler3 days ago

Gets Dominated At UFC 309
Karine Silva3 days ago

Suffers Her First UFC Loss
Viviane Araujo3 days ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Mauricio Ruffy3 days ago

Extends His Win Streak To Six
Nick Martinez4 days ago

Signs Qualifying Offer With Reds
4 days ago

Luis Severino Likely To Decline Qualifying Offer From Mets
James Llontop4 days ago

Loses Clear-Cut Decision In Thrilling Fight At UFC 309
Paul Craig4 days ago

Loses Decision At UFC 309
Bo Nickal4 days ago

Remains Undefeated With Lackluster Performance At UFC 309
Stipe Miocic4 days ago

Retires After UFC 309 Loss
Jon Jones4 days ago

Gets TKO Win At UFC 309 To Defend Heavyweight Title

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 
George Pickens - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL injury News

Steelers vs. Browns TNF Start 'Em, Sit 'Em: Jameis Winston, Nick Chubb, David Njoku, Jerry Jeudy, Russell Wilson, Najee Harris, George Pickens

The Week 12 TNF game between two bitter AFC North rivals (Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers) is not likely to end up like the Thursday night game from two weeks ago when two different AFC North teams (Bengals and Ravens) battled to a 35-34 shootout. Somewhere deep in the charter of the Pittsburgh Steelers, I […]


DJ Moore - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

TNF Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 12 - Thursday Updates for Deebo Samuel, D.J. Moore, Jerry Jeudy, Jonathon Brooks, Jauan Jennings, Tank Dell

Many fantasy managers are in must-win situations down the stretch, so it's never been more important to ace your start-or-sit calls. Our Week 12 TNF fantasy football overall rankings for 2024 are here to help. Ahead of the critical Week 12 slate of action, let's find out where players on the start-sit bubble such as […]


Calvin Ridley - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

TNF Fantasy Football FLEX Rankings (RB, WR, TE) - Week 12 Thursday Updates for Chuba Hubbard, Calvin Ridley, Cedric Tillman, Jonnu Smith, Austin Ekeler

It's always tough to compare two flex options at different positions, but bye weeks and key injuries have made those start-sit decisions even tougher. We're here to help guide you with your lineup calls with our Week 12 TNF fantasy football FLEX rankings for 2024. Navigate the rankings below to find out where top flex […]


Tua Tagovailoa - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

TNF Fantasy Football Superflex 2QB Rankings for Week 12 - Thursday Updates for Tua Tagovailoa, Bo Nix, Russell Wilson, Austin Ekeler, Jayden Reed

Time is running out to collect "Ws" before the fantasy football playoffs begin, and if you need assistance, our Week 12 fantasy football Superflex rankings (2QB) for fantasy football can assist your start-or-sit efforts. Let's get to it! To begin Week 12 preparation, let's dig into the rankings to find out where key Superflex options […]


Bucky Irving - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

TNF Running Back Fantasy Football Rankings - Week 12 Thursday RB Updates for Jonathon Brooks, J.K. Dobbins, Bucky Irving, Najee Harris, Kareem Hunt

We're onto Week 12 of the NFL campaign, which can only mean the fantasy football playoffs are just ahead. Whether you're at the top of your league standings, fighting for a playoff spot, or are just trying to play spoiler, our Week 12 TNF fantasy football running back rankings for 2024 are here to help you […]


Cedric Tillman - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

TNF Wide Receiver Fantasy Football Rankings - Week 12 Thursday WR Updates for Cedric Tillman, Jauan Jennings, Josh Downs, Jerry Jeudy, DJ Moore

At the wide receiver spot especially, bye weeks and injuries are major factors in Week 12. If you don't have an excess of must-start WRs and need help identifying the top available options, we're here to help with our Week 12 TNF fantasy football wide receiver rankings for 2024. Let's dive in below to see […]


Jonnu Smith - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

TNF Tight End Fantasy Football Rankings - Week 12 Thursday TE Updates for George Kittle, David Njoku, Will Dissly, Jonnu Smith, Hunter Henry

In most leagues, only three weeks of the fantasy football regular season remain. If you desperately need a win to clinch a first-round bye or quality for the playoffs, use our Week 12 TNF fantasy football tight end rankings to help you with tough start-or-sit calls at the challenging TE spot. Ahead of the critical Week […]


Tommy DeVito- Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Not All Heroes...Play On Good Teams - Giants, Patriots, and Cowboys Fantasy Football Outlooks

It's well-known at this point that good offenses can help their players light up the scoreboards in fantasy football leagues. The mantra "trust in good players on good offenses" rings true, and some of the best seasons in fantasy football history have been aided by things like good playcalling and a good supporting cast. The […]


Baker Mayfield - Fantasy Football Rankings, Waiver Wire Pickups, Draft Sleepers

TNF Quarterback Fantasy Football Rankings - Week 12 Thursday QB Updates for Anthony Richardson, Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Bo Nix, C.J. Stroud

It's a critical week for fantasy football, as the playoffs are just around the corner. If you need help to nail your optimal lineups this week, our Week 12 TNF fantasy football quarterback rankings for 2024 are here to assist. Ahead of the all-important Week 12 slate, let's navigate the rankings below and find out […]


Jaylen Waddle - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL DFS Picks

Jaylen Waddle Fantasy Football Outlook - What's Wrong With Waddle?

Miami Dolphins wide receiver Jaylen Waddle was widely pushed as a potential league-winner in fantasy football in 2024 due to a variety of factors. The explosiveness and big-play ability of the Dolphins offense, the good play of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, and his talent were a few of them. It's not worked out that way. It's […]


Isiah Pacheco - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Running Backs

Fantasy Football Injury Reports: Week 12 Updates for Isiah Pacheco, Tyreek Hill, Mike Evans, Jalen Hurts, CeeDee Lamb, Jalen Hurts, George Kittle, Calvin Ridley, more

Week 12 of the NFL's 2024 slate is coming up, and as the fantasy football playoffs draw closer, it's becoming more important than ever to stay ahead of injury news for key players. Leaving a hurt player in your lineup can result in disaster. The author of this article missed out on the fantasy playoffs […]


Jauan Jennings - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Wide Receiver Sleepers, Risers, Breakouts for Fantasy Football - Targets, Air Yards, Snaps Trends for Week 12 (2024)

Wide Receiver Sleepers, Risers, Fantasy Football Breakouts - Targets, Air Yards, Snaps Trends Analysis For Week 12 by Kevin Tompkins Targets are paramount when it comes to evaluating pass-catchers for fantasy football. There are no air yards, receiving yards, receptions, or touchdowns without first earning a target. There’s a reason the biggest and most consistent […]


Video: Week 12 Must-Start Wide Receivers - 2024 Fantasy Football Streamers, Start 'Em, Sit 'Em Analysis

As we head into Week 12 we're dealing with multiple teams on byes. Be prepared to navigate those challenges by checking out our favorite 2024 fantasy football must-start wide receivers for Week 12! RotoBaller's Matt Donnelly discusses his top "Must Start" WRs that will have a fantasy football impact in Week 12, as well as […]