Scouting the Routing: 2024 PGA Championship

If you were looking for storylines ahead of the year's second Major Championship, the golfing world has delivered in the four weeks since the Masters. The two most decorated Major Champions of their generation each come in on the back of victories on their respective Tours. The World No. 1 (and Masters Champion), Scottie Scheffler, currently rides a streak of four wins in five starts. Because of this recent surge from Scottie, Rory McIlroy, and Brooks Koepka in their recent play, a host of marquee names have found themselves in parts unknown on the opening odds board.

The venue on which this year's PGA Championship will be contested is named for a fabled hall where the souls of heroes reside, and over its last two appearances on the Major stage, Valhalla Golf Club has crowned two all-time greats of its own. Will Tiger in 2000 and Rory in 2014 be followed by yet another established great? Or will Louisville provide a basecamp for a young upstart's climb to the peaks of golfing immortality? Either way, we're in for a legacy-defining week as the stars get together for the second time this Major Championship Season!

This piece will serve to break down every key trend and statistic I'm weighing to project a player's viability at Valhalla Golf Club and set our readers up to make the crucial decisions necessary on pre-week betting boards. Without further ado, here is my comprehensive scouting report on Valhalla Golf Club and the 2024 PGA Championship!

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The Golf Course

Valhalla Golf Club - Par 71; 7,609 yards

Past Champions

• 2023 - Brooks Koepka (-9) over Viktor Hovland & Scottie Scheffler
• 2022 - Justin Thomas (-5) over Will Zalatoris (playoff)
• 2021 -  Phil Mickelson (-6) over Brooks Koepka & Louis Oosthuizen
• 2020 - Collin Morikawa (-13) over Paul Casey & Dustin Johnson
• 2019 - Brooks Koepka (-8) over Dustin Johnson
• 2018 - Brooks Koepka (-16) over Tiger Woods

Bonus: PGA Championships held at Valhalla

• 2014 - Rory McIlroy (-16) over Phil Mickelson
• 2000 - Tiger Woods (-18) over Bob May (playoff)
• 1996 - Mark Brooks (-11) over Kenny Perry (playoff)

 

Valhalla by the Numbers (Off-The-Tee):

From a catalog of past champions that includes Koepka, McIlroy, Jason Day, and Justin Thomas to a recent rotation of courses that includes Oak Hill, Quail Hollow, Kiawah Island, and Bethpage Black, there is perhaps no skill more closely intertwined with the PGA Championship than driving distance. Outside of Collin Morikawa's triumph at 7,200-yard Harding Park in 2020, no PGA Champion since 2014 has finished the year outside the top 60 on Tour in Driving Distance, and in that time, only Phil Mickelson finished his campaign outside of the top 25 (54th).

Since Day's waltz to 20-under around Whistling Straits nine years ago, the PGA of America has made a concerted effort to up the difficulty for the game's best -- resulting in an average winning score of (-8) in the nine championships since. But how they've achieved these higher scores may well be the main factor for why distance has provided such a distinct edge in recent PGA iterations. In this modern age of power and speed, the default response from the superintendents of these Championship golf courses has been to build new tee boxes 30-40 yards farther back, pinch in the fairways, and grow up the rough. Valhalla's now 7,600-yard layout with 4" Bluegrass rough couldn't be a more perfect example.

Unfortunately for those in the field who don't possess the elite driving gifts of McIlroy, Koepka, or Bryson DeChambeau, this new direction of golf course "design" stacks the deck even further against them -- as even the game's most accurate players will find themselves missing their fair share of fairways, and when they do, the thick rough will prove a lot more penalizing with a mid/long-iron in hand as opposed to the short irons and wedges that longer hitters will have.

This is why we've routinely seen longer hitters dominate venues like Torrey Pines, Oak Hill, and Winged Foot (all courses that feature driver-heavy layouts with narrow fairways and thick rough). With some fairways here at Valhalla pinching in as narrow as 22 yards, recent rains likely to spoil any chance of firm-and-fast turf conditions, and virtually no option to club down for position (7/11 Par 4s measure over 460 yards), this week figures to be more of the same in terms of off-the-tee outlook. I'll be placing an above-average weight on driving distance and looking particularly closely at a player's historic off-the-tee acumen on similarly narrow golf courses with penal rough.

Valhalla by the Numbers (Approach):

Major Championships in 2024 aren't exactly known for presenting players with a vast array of wedge opportunities. With this week's routing featuring seven Par 4s over 460 yards, four Par 3s over 190, and three Par 5s over 570, Valhalla fits very snuggly into the established mold. There's a reason the golfing world will be basing many of their weekly opinions on last week's outing at Quail Hollow, as the nearly 7,600-yard layout featured in Charlotte would have projected for a very similar approach distribution to what's expected this week.

One key difference between the setups at this and next year's PGA Championship venues is the agronomy on the fairways. While Quail Hollow featured an overseed akin to the likes of Harbour Town or TPC Sawgrass, Valhalla has been changed over to a Zeon zoysiagrass. Zoysia has most recently been seen at the likes of TPC Southwind and Eastlake in last summer's FedEx Cup Playoffs but has also featured at the 2019 PGA Championship (held at Bellerive Country Club), as well as in the annual ZOZO Championship (hosted at Narashino Country Club in Chiba, Japan).

Given the similarities in terms of agronomy (and projected approach distributions), I do believe it's worth a look back at a player's second-shot proficiency around these four venues. However, I'll be looking predominantly at long-term iron splits from 175 yards and beyond, as well as a player's ball-striking history at other Major Championship setups.

Valhalla by the Numbers (Around the Greens):

While Valhalla doesn't feature the same selection of tight lies and severe undulation we saw at Augusta National, the presence of wet, 4-inch thick rough will test these players in other ways around the greens. From Winged Foot in 2020 to Torrey Pines in 2021 and Oak Hill last year, the stateside Majors have routinely tested players in this way -- and routinely rank as some of the toughest venues to scramble from out of the rough.

Another key corollary to keep in mind is Jack Nicklaus's most famous design: Muirfield Village. The host of the annual Memorial Tournament also sports some of the gnarliest rough on the PGA Tour (a very similar length/agronomic mix to this week) and has ranked as the toughest non-Major venue to gain strokes from off the green. When attempting to model for a player's chances around the greens of Valhalla, historic splits around Muirfield Village would be among the first places I would look.

Outside of the 4" rough, however, I don't believe Valhalla will pose nearly the same danger from its short grass. Zoysia is very well known as having some of the most forgiving turf in the golfing world to create clean contact, and in the hierarchy of around-the-green difficulty from their fairways, TPC Southwind, Eastlake, and Craig Ranch are right around or well below the Tour average. I'll be paying much more attention to a player's historic acumen on golf courses with similar greenside rough lengths than any chipping splits specific to Zoysia.

Valhalla by the Numbers (Putting):

As mentioned in the earlier section, Jack Nicklaus's greens at Valhalla won't feature nearly the same character as we've previously seen at Alister McKenzie's Augusta National or project to see next month at Donald Ross's Pinehurst No. 2. However, with Stimpmeter readings of 13, they will rank as some of the fastest complexes players will see all year.

The pure speed of these bentgrass greens hasn't necessarily translated to difficulty, however, as back in 2014, Valhalla ranked well below the Tour Average in 3-putt percentage (2.3 vs 3.1%), and exceeded the Tour Average in make percentage from outside of 15 feet. These metrics, along with a relatively small set of greens by square footage (~5,000 sq. feet on average), mean that I don't project Valhalla to be a venue that requires elite touch from long range.

In direct contrast to many of the recent Major Championships we've seen in the last few years (Augusta National, LACC, St. Andrews, etc.), I'll be placing a below-average weight on Approach Putt Performance and Three-Putt Avoidance. General bentgrass putting splits will be the main stat I'll be weighing -- particularly from the key scoring range of 5-15 feet.

Key Stats Roundup (in order of importance):

• Mid/Long-iron play -- specifically looking at proximity/strokes gained splits from >175 yards and approach splits off of Zoysia fairways (Eastlake, TPC Southwind, Bellerive, etc.)
• Driving Distance/Historic off-the-tee acumen on longer golf courses with thick rough
• Recent history at Major Championships (particular emphasis on comparable PGA/US Open venues like Oak Hill, Winged Foot, Bellerive, Bethpage Black, etc.)
• Bentgrass Putting (particularly from <15 feet)
• History of Jack Nicklaus Designs

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End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod

2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 Units

Total Winnings: +311.229 Units

Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36

H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022

 

The Sunday Shortlist

Before the odds come out on Monday morning, here are two to three names I’ve identified as significant targets upon my initial research.

Brooks Koepka

Incredible 4 iron into the 16th to set up what looks to be the winning birdie for Brooks Koepka #PGAChamp pic.twitter.com/kr1yLk3TZQ

— Golf Monthly (@GolfMonthly) August 12, 2018

It's frankly pretty fascinating how quickly Brooks can turn the switch from one of the Masters' biggest disappointments into the player I'm perhaps most excited for this week at Valhalla. He's, of course, going for a mind-blowing sixth Major Title (and a fourth PGA Championship), and looking back through Koepka's track record in this particular event, it's easy to spot the similarities between Valhalla and the likes of Bellerive, Bethpage Black, and Oak Hill.

7,600 yards, narrow fairways, thick rough -- Brooks has proven as capable of anyone in the history of this sport when it comes to dissecting these modern-day PGA/US Open layouts, and with the recent life he showed in a two-shot victory at LIV Singapore, it's difficult to avoid the comparisons to this time last year. Koepka entered the 2023 PGA Championship on the back of two consecutive top-fives on LIV, and in each of his two previous PGA triumphs, Brooks has given us a definitive sign that the game was ramping up. He finished fourth at the Byron Nelson prior to his 2019 win at Bethpage and logged a fifth-place finish at Firestone ahead of his 2018 win at Bellerive.

Advanced metrics from the LIV Tour have been spotty and unreliable, to say the least, but for anyone who stayed up late on a Saturday night to watch Brooks capture his fourth title on his new Tour, you'd have seen Koepka at his resolute best. Metronomic off of the tee, conservative yet decisive on approach, and money on the greens when the chips were down. Brooks mentioned on multiple occasions about being "embarrassed" about his T45 finish around Augusta National last month. If last year taught us anything, it's that you should never step in front of a motivated Brooks Koepka on this stage. He'll be leading the line on my betting card this week, and I'd endorse any price down to 14-1.

Bryson DeChambeau

Bryson DeChambeau birdies Golden Bell to retake the lead. #themasters pic.twitter.com/C2EP0Bwxsc

— The Masters (@TheMasters) April 12, 2024

Although I held a 100-1 ticket on Bryson last month at the Masters, my 65-1 future here at Valhalla was always the one I had circled as DeChambeau's most likely spot for a revival. Already a winner at Jack Nicklaus's Muirfield Village (2018) and at a similarly narrow, driver-heavy Major venue at Winged Foot (2020), Bryson couldn't set up more perfectly for the bomber's paradise on tap this week.

One thing I felt has gone under-reported since Bryson's move to LIV has been the sudden surge in driving accuracy we've seen since he switched to a Krank driver -- a brand much more synonymous with long-drive contests than the ranks of Tour professionals. DeChambeau has spoken glowingly over the last nine months about this new driver's reliability at swing speeds over 125 mph, and in each of his two LIV seasons since making the change, Bryson has gone from nearly dead-last in fairway percentage to right around the middle of the pack.

He gained a whopping 6.8 strokes off of the tee at last month's Masters (hitting 75% of his fairways in the process), and while he's unlikely to replicate those accuracy numbers this week around Valhalla, his sheer length will give him as decisive of an advantage as anyone in this field -- evidenced by a Strokes Gained: Off-the Tee rating of +7.5 last May at Oak Hill.

Bryson also rates out as one of the game's top entities on Approach shots from beyond 175 yards, and of the elite players, he's been one of the most reliable putters from inside 15 feet. Between Harding Park and Oak Hill, DeChambeau has sneakily finished inside the top five in two of his last three PGA Championship appearances, and he did most of his damage around Augusta National after overnight rains made the course much more receptive. The recent forecasts around Louisville suggest we could be in for very similar playing conditions at Valhalla, and I'd have no issue doubling down on my current position even as prices dip below 30-1.

 

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