Scouting the Routing: 2024 Charles Schwab Challenge

4 months ago by Ian McNeill

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Built-in 1936 and contested on the PGA Tour every year since 1946, Perry Maxwell's Colonial Country Club has long been counted among the most iconic layouts in professional golf. Its 77th iteration in 2024, however, might just be the start of a new chapter for this Golden Age course, as Gil Hanse has undergone yet another of his classical restorations.

Similar to his work at Winged Foot, LACC, Brookline, and of course, another Maxwell design at Southern Hills, Hanse has aimed to modernize Colonial's Golden Age layout while preserving the original vision the architects had almost 90 years before. With Hanse at the wheel, a relatively dry run of weather in the month of May, and patented Texan winds forecasted throughout the week, it's very possible that the 7,200-yard Colonial could provide one of the most compelling tests of professional golf we see all season. With just five players reaching the (-15) mark here since 2011, one thing is for sure: there will be no rest for the weary for players making the trip straight back from the year's second Major Championship!

This piece will serve to break down every key trend and statistic I'm weighing to project a player's viability in the outright market and set our readers up to make the crucial decisions necessary on pre-week betting boards. Without further ado, here is my comprehensive scouting report on Colonial Country Club and the 2024 Charles Schwab Challenge!

The Golf Course

Colonial Country Club - Par 70; 7,209 yards

Past Champions

2023 - Emiliano Grillo (-8) over Adam Schenk (playoff)
2022 - Sam Burns (-9) over Scottie Scheffler (playoff)
2021 - Jason Kokrak (-14) over Jordan Spieth
2020 - Daniel Berger (-15) over Collin Morikawa (playoff)
2019 - Kevin Na (-13) over Tony Finau
2018 - Justin Rose (-20) over Brooks Koepka

Colonial by the Numbers (Off-The-Tee):

Average Fairway Width -- 27.6 yards; Fourth narrowest on the PGA Tour
Average Driving Distance -- 280.1 yards; fifth lowest on Tour
Driving Accuracy -- 55.2%; seventh lowest on Tour
Missed Fairway Penalty -- 0.36; 14th highest on Tour
- Rough Penalty -- 0.35; sixth highest on Tour
- Non-Rough Penalty -- 0.33; fifth lowest on Tour
- Missed FW Penalty Fraction -- 1.8%; fifth lowest on Tour
Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee Difficulty: (-0.044); fourth toughest on Tour

After a few weeks of writing basically the same passage on the importance of pure distance in my handicap, the narrow confines of Colonial Country Club offer a nice change-up to the week-to-week product on Tour. Coming in at just a shade over 7,200 yards and featuring just five holes on a property measuring over 460, this isn't a golf course that looks to test you in the traditional "Major Championship" style we alluded to in Valhalla's article.

Instead, Colonial features a collection of sharp doglegs, narrow fairways, and 3" Bermuda rough that's just tricky enough to wreak havoc on approach shots into some of the smallest greens on the PGA schedule. As a result, clubbing down will be the operative strategy on at least six of the 12 par fours within this week's routing, and just last year, Champion Emiliano Grillo hit just two drivers over his final 11 holes to close the deal.

With much of the field bottlenecked into similar landing zones off of the tee, it becomes especially hard for elite drivers of the ball to separate themselves from the field in the same way as at Valhalla or Quail Hollow. The top five finishers here have historically gained just 16% of their total strokes off of the tee, and of the last five champions here at Colonial, only Jason Kokrak gained more than three shots to the field with his driver for the week.

While driving as a whole does project to have a more muted effect relative to past weeks, there is a potential edge to be found in a player's historic proficiency on similarly positional layouts. Courses like Harbour Town, Innisbrook, and Pebble Beach all feature a multitude of club-down opportunities, and venues like Sedgefield, Waialae, and TPC River Highlands feature similarly hazardous rough in conjunction with this throwback off-the-tee ethos. In my modeling, these comp courses will make up the majority of my off-the-tee weighting. If a player has shown a repeated aptitude at the venues above, it gives me much more faith in his ability to navigate the similar driving test on tap here in Fort Worth.

Colonial by the Numbers (Approach):

Green in Regulation Rate -- 62.0%; 16th lowest on the PGA Tour
Strokes Gained: Approach Difficulty: (-0.011); 12th toughest on Tour
Key Proximity Ranges:
- 150-175 yards (accounts for 24.6% of historical approach shots)
- 125-150 yards (20.7%)
- 175-200 yards (17.8%)

Just like the comp courses listed above, in which players tend to play from the same landing areas off of the tee, the leaderboards at Colonial have been as closely linked to elite approach play as any course on Tour. Over 40% of total strokes gained by the top five finishers at the Schwab have come via iron play, and no winner here since 2018 has finished worse than 12th in SG: Approach for the week.

It should come as no surprise, then, that elite iron players like Jordan Spieth, Collin Morikawa, Tony Finau, Daniel Berger, and Grillo all populate the top of the strokes gained leaderboards here at the Schwab over the last five seasons. In fact, dating back to 2019, the only way to finish inside the top 10 whilst losing strokes with your approach play (a scenario that has occurred on five occasions) was with an outlier putting performance of at least +5.0 strokes gained on the greens.

In terms of the key proximity ranges to factor in, Colonial is very much a short and middle iron course. Since 2012, over 63% of approach shots at Colonial have come from 125-200 yards (a 15% uptick from the year-long Tour average), while the long-iron play has seen a 36% reduction from its season-long baselines (14.6 vs. 22.9%).

With its 5,000 square foot green complexes ranking as some of the smallest on the PGA Tour, Green in Regulation rate from the ranges above is a worthwhile addition to your Colonial modeling. I'll also be factoring in Proximity/Strokes Gained splits from 125-200 yards and also honing in on very localized trends in a player's recent approach play. Five of the last six champions of the Charles Schwab have recorded a week of at least 4.5 strokes gained on approach within four starts leading up to the event. If a player hasn't showcased similar upside in both the short and long term, it's the quickest way to get booted from consideration on my betting card.

Colonial by the Numbers (Around the Greens):

Scrambling Percentage -- 59.1%; 1.6% above Tour Average
Sand Save Difficulty -- (+0.049); Third easiest on Tour
Up-and-Down Difficulty (Fairway) -- (-0.006); 13th toughest on Tour
Up-and-Down Difficulty (Rough) -- (+0.025); 14th easiest on Tour
SG: Around the Green Difficulty: (+0.022); ninth easiest on Tour

Surprisingly, for a golf course that features a Green in Regulation rate of just 62%, it's difficult to find a stat less correlative to success than around the green play. Looking through iterations of the Charles Schwab since 2019, the five champions have lost a cumulative total of (-2.2) shots with their short games. Three of the last five have rated out below field average, and only three of 28 top-five finishers (10.7%) have ranked inside the top 10 for the week with their short games.

The chipping areas themselves don't feature a ton of nuance either, as the bunkering at Colonial routinely ranks as some of the easiest to get the ball up and down, and the rough around the greens doesn't generate nearly the same penalty as we alluded to from off the fairway.

Time will tell if Hanse's restoration is able to put some of the bite back into Colonial's greenside surrounds, as Southern Hills ranked as one of the toughest courses on Tour to chip from back in 2022. However, despite the fact that Maxwell designed these two iconic courses just two years and 300 miles apart, Colonial has never featured the same stark topography and undulation as Southern Hills. Until we see some sort of tangible proof, I'm willing to follow the historical trends and lean much less heavily into the short game than we saw at the 2022 PGA.

Colonial by the Numbers (Putting):

Average Green Size: 5,000 sq. feet
Agronomy -- A-4 bentgrass
Stimpmeter: 12-13
3-Putt Percentage: 2.4% (0.6% below Tour Average)
Strokes Gained: Putting Difficulty: (+0.004); 11th easiest on Tour

After navigating a sea of Bermudagrass and poa overseeds through the month of April, the late Spring/early Summer months on the PGA Tour bring a run of bentgrass into the fold. Two of the last three weeks on Tour (dating back to Craig Ranch) have given us a small taste of life without having to diagnose just how much the overseed projects affect the historic Bermuda splits at Quail Hollow, Innisbrook, Sawgrass, etc., and between this week, the Canadian Open, and the Memorial, handicappers will get a chance to ascertain just how comfortable this transition will be for the players.

Like last week at Valhalla, the greens at Colonial don't come with a severe amount of undulation or sprawling terrain. Each of the two courses ranks in the bottom ten in terms of average square footage and has rated out well below the Tour average in both 3-Putt Percentage and Strokes Gained: Putting Difficulty from >15 feet. In fact, since 2015, only eight courses on the PGA Tour have featured easier greens to lag putt than Colonial, and in two of those nine years (2015 & 2018), Colonial ranked as the easiest and second-easiest course to gain strokes from 15 feet and beyond.

As such, I won't be bothered whatsoever with a player's proficiency in stats like Approach Putt Performance. Instead, I'll be looking almost entirely at historic bentgrass splits from 5-20 feet. Putting has been far-and-away the second most important of the four strokes gained stats (accounting for 36% of total strokes gained by top five finishers), and if you find yourself on the green in regulation, there's a good chance you're sitting within a make-able range for birdie.

Similar to the momentum factor we discussed in the approach section, trending recent putting splits have been another telltale sign of a player primed to contend at Colonial. Over the last decade at Colonial, winners here at the Charles Schwab have been either some of the best-established putters in the game (Sam Burns, Kevin Na, Spieth, Kevin Kisner) or were currently riding a string of positive putting performances (Grillo, Kokrak, Rose, Berger). I'll be factoring in recent momentum on the greens right alongside historic bentgrass proficiency in my modeling this week.

Key Stats Roundup (in order of importance):

Iron play, iron play, iron play. Specifically looking at Proximity/Strokes Gained/GIR Splits from 125-200 yards, in addition to more general stats like Birdie Chances Created and Recent Approach Momentum
Bentgrass Putting -- particularly from <20 feet
Positional Driving Acumen (looking specifically at SG: OTT, Good Drive Percentage, and Fairway Percentage at courses with a similar driving profile of narrow fairways, tight corridors, and a bevy of club-down opportunities)
Comp course history (Harbour Town, Innisbrook, Sedgefield, Waialae, etc.)

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End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod

2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 Units

Total Winnings: +311.229 Units

Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36

H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022

The Sunday Shortlist

Before the odds come out on Monday morning, here are two to three names I’ve identified as significant targets upon my initial research.

Akshay Bhatia

Akshay Bhatia with a sick wedge shot to get to 8-under & a 2-shot lead in the opening round of the #ValeroTexasOpen👀pic.twitter.com/a7j0NwxcYK

— Golf On Tap (@OnTapGolf) April 4, 2024

The last time Akshay teed it up in the state of Texas, the mercurial 22-year-old put on one of the more impressive tee-to-green performances of the season in a playoff victory over Denny McCarthy. This week, Colonial will provide a similar test of positional driving and middle-iron play -- two aspects of the game in which Bhatia has proven himself among the game's best over the course of his breakout 2024 campaign.

In a five-month span that has seen Bhatia jump from 110th in the world rankings all the way to a career-high mark of 33rd, Akshay ranks as the sixth-best Approach player in this field (fourth when isolating for specific proximity ranges). But perhaps more importantly, he's consistently showcased an ability to spike to the top of recent Strokes Gained leaderboards. Over his last five starts on the PGA Tour, Akshay has gained 4.7, 5.8, 8.2, and 7.9 strokes on Approach in Houston, San Antonio, Hilton Head, and Louisville, respectively.

Another drastic improvement to Bhatia's game has been on the greens, as the 22-year-old comes into the week on the back of gaining strokes in five of his last six starts with the flat stick (averaging over three shots per start in the events he's been positive). These are far from pedestrian figures, and especially not from a player who at this time last year was in the midst of a five-month run of nine straight starts losing to the field average on the greens.

Although he hasn't yet had the best time in the PGA's "Signature Events" since his victory in San Antonio last month, Akshay has been particularly prolific in events with similar field strengths to this week: recording four other top 20 finishes (in addition to his win), at the Sony Open, Farmers, Houston Open, and Valspar. He's clearly showcased the tools required to navigate a second-shot golf course like Colonial, and perhaps the tight corridors and club-down nature of this routing can take some of the pressure off of a weirdly faulty driver in recent weeks. If the off-the-tee splits can normalize, and the irons and putter continue to trend, I see no reason why Akshay can't contend for his second win in the Lone Star State this season.

Aaron Rai

Aaron Rai made a total of 39 feet of putts in Round 3.

Today, he's made 118 feet of putts on the front nine and is one shot back of the lead 👀 pic.twitter.com/3PFJh4jSei

— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) May 5, 2024

In full disclosure, the second write-up of the article was reserved for Viktor Hovland once I caught wind he was back together with swing coach Joe Mayo. My conviction only grew as he proceeded to gain 11 strokes ball-striking over four days at Valhalla, but alas, our potential cover boy withdrew quietly from the Charles Schwab early yesterday afternoon.

Now in a Hovland-less world here in Fort Worth (with Scottie priced below 3-1 in some spots), my attention instead turns to the mid-range on this betting board: where players may not come with the same name power as those 30-40 points above them, but come in with comparable recent form and perhaps a better course fit.

Aaron Rai tops the pack in terms of these undervalued commodities, as the 29-year-old Englishman has recorded two top-seven finishes in the state of Texas alone over the last two months. Routinely ranked as one of the more accurate drivers of the ball in world golf, Rai has fared especially well on positional layouts where precision is placed at a premium. Four of the best five driving performances of his career have come at TPC River Highlands, TPC Sawgrass, TPC Summerlin, and St. George's -- all courses that rank below Tour average in terms of length but feature some of the highest missed fairway penalties on the schedule.

While driving accuracy has been a consistent cornerstone of Rai's profile for years, it has been Aaron's recent development in iron play that really piques my interest in his outright prospects. Over both his last 24 and 5o rounds, Rai ranks inside the top 10 in both SG: APP and Birdie Chances Created, and last season at the Charles Schwab, he recorded the second-best approach week of his entire career (+7.4 Strokes Gained).

Currently in the midst of one of the best Approach stretches of his career (+3.1 per tournament since the Mexico Open) and on a run of three of four positive weeks on the greens, Rai's profile looks very similar to that of last year's Champion: Emiliano Grillo. My underlying stats suggest he's one of the premier ball-strikers in this field, and at opening prices of 66-1, he presents a ton of upside in a wasteland of underachieving stars.

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