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Thunder Dan's daily fantasy football Week 17 NFL DFS lineup picks on DraftKings and FanDuel for Saturday, 12/28/2024. Set winning DFS lineups with his expert NFL DFS advice.
If you love small NFL slates for DFS, then this is the week for you! After a two-game slate on Christmas Day, we are treated to a triple-header on Saturday, December 28 with all three games being played at separate times.
The Chargers take on the Patriots in New England at 1:00 p.m. EST and are followed by the Bengals hosting the Broncos at 4:30 p.m. EST in a game with major playoff implications. The nightcap is another important game for the NFC playoff picture as the Rams host the Arizona Cardinals at 8:10 p.m. EST.
In this article, you'll find my favorite picks for the NFL DFS Saturday slate on DraftKings and FanDuel. I have my top option at each position as well as a secondary option to consider. Good luck in your contests and thanks for choosing RotoBaller for your NFL DFS advice!
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Quarterbacks - Saturday Slate Week 17 DFS Picks
Top Play: Joe Burrow vs. DEN (DK: $7.2K / FD: $8.0K)
Burrow is the clear top play here and there should be enough value to fit him into lineups pretty easily. The Bengals love to throw it, with one of the highest situation-neutral passing rates in the NFL. Burrow and the offense haven't been the issue in Cincinnati this season, it's been the defense as Joe has tossed 39 touchdowns and thrown for over 4,200 yards.
The Broncos pass defense has been steady, but it is not unbeatable as we saw Jameis Winston roll up over 400 yards against them just a few weeks ago. Burrow is easily the safest play at the position and also brings the highest ceiling as he's thrown for three or more touchdowns in seven straight games and has gone over 30 DK points four times this season.
Contrarian Play: Matthew Stafford vs. ARI (DK: $5.7K / FD: $7.2K)
Stafford is the cheapest QB on the slate and has not cracked double-digit DK points in either of his last two starts. However, the Rams are implied for a slate-high 27 points and Stafford has two very good receivers at his disposal in Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua.
If you're playing a lot of Kyren Williams and the Rams running game in lineups, then it makes sense to go opposite in some tournaments, too, and stack Stafford with his pass-catchers for leverage. He does have two four-TD games this season and we've seen him sling it in some big games when his team needs him. If Arizona loads up to stop the run, Stafford can beat it through the air.
Running Backs - Saturday Slate Week 17 DFS Picks
Top Play: Kyren Williams vs. ARI (DK: $7.5K / FD: $8.5K)
Two backs are well ahead of the rest of the field on this slate -- Chase Brown of the Bengals and Kyren Williams of the L.A. Rams.
While Brown has been uber-consistent for Cincy since taking over as the main back, I think Williams is the player with the higher floor and ceiling in his matchup with the Cardinals.
Williams has three 100-yard games in his last four and has been piling up the carries with 29, 29, and 23 in the Rams' last three games.
This week, I would expect the Rams to lean on him and the run game again at home. He was held in check for 25 yards on 12 carries in the teams' first meeting way back in Week 2, but the Arizona run defense has gone downhill in a big way since then.
Kyren Williams has been extremely efficient this season from a per-down standpoint.
He may not have a ton of explosives, but he falls forward and gets what he needs, especially in short-yardage situations. His 84 rushing first downs lead the NFL. https://t.co/0JKOMj0WlQ pic.twitter.com/gb9zfTSACq
— Wyatt Miller (@wymill07) December 23, 2024
Just last week, the Cardinals allowed Chuba Hubbard to ramble for over 150 yards as the Panthers upset them in overtime. The Rams have the advantage up front and will likely pound the ball in the run game to set up their play-action passing game.
Williams also has a knack for finding the end zone, with 15 touchdowns in the season. I think he has the clearest path to being the highest-scoring player on the slate and he's the guy I want to use to start just about every lineup with for this slate.
Secondary Play: Kimani Vidal at NE (DK: $4.8K / FD: $5.1K)
UPDATE: Dobbins has been activated and is expected to play. He is only $4,000 on FanDuel due to their mistake and should be the chalk there. He costs $5,800 on DraftKings and is less of an auto-play, but I would still expect him to get more work than Vidal on the day.
Gus Edwards led the Chargers backfield in touches last week and has been ruled out for Saturday's game. That leaves Vidal and Hassan Haskins as the two backs who are most likely to inherit the bulk of the work in the backfield as J.K. Dobbins' status is still very much up in the air (he's off IR, but hasn't logged a full practice this week).
Haskins has operated mainly as a third-down back, so Vidal should be used more on early downs and is my bet to handle the most touches. This Pats defense can be run on and ranks in the bottom five of the NFL in rush defense. It was torched by James Cook last week and has allowed plenty of big games to opposing backs this season. Vidal could end up being the best value on the entire slate if he's an effective runner and if he manages to find the end zone.
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Wide Receivers - Saturday Slate Week 17 DFS Picks
Top Play: Ja'Marr Chase vs. DEN (DK: $8.4K / FD: $9.6K)
While some may avoid Chase because he could see some coverage from Broncos cornerback Pat Surtain II, I'm not going to do that at all. Surtain is not guaranteed to shadow Chase and could even end up on Tee Higgins more often.
Even if Chase draws a healthy amount of Surtain, he's proved to be matchup-proof this season and the Bengals make a point to feed him in several different ways -- whether it be on short, quick throws or deeper routes down the field.
I like the Rams receivers plenty, but I always want the most raw points at each position when I can secure them on smaller slates and I think it's going to be very tough for any other receivers to outscore Chase based on what we've seen him do this season.
Secondary Play: Kayshon Boutte vs. LAC (DK: $4.0K / FD: $5.2K)
It's taken most of the season, but Boutte may have finally emerged as the best receiver in the room for the New England Patriots. He had an impressive 5-95-1 line in last week's close loss to the Bills and his touchdown catch was a thing of beauty as he beat his man in single coverage and made an incredible play on the ball in the end zone.
Turns out Kayshon Boutte is the promising young WR on the Patriots roster.
He's having a Nico Collins year 2. pic.twitter.com/1a18KJMPqs
— ZeeBee (@BellinoZee) December 23, 2024
The Patriots won't go quietly on Saturday, but I do think they'll struggle to run the football against a stout Chargers defense. So, if you want to save some salary cap, investing in a cheap Pats receiver with a big upside makes a lot of sense.
Tight Ends - Saturday Slate Week 17 DFS Picks
Top Play: Trey McBride at LAR (DK: 6.2K / FD: $7.5K)
I thought that McBride would finally find paydirt last week against Carolina, but he was held scoreless again and is still without a touchdown on the season despite being heavily involved in the offensive game plan every week and getting more than his fair share of end-zone targets.
He was a clear bust last week, with only five points against the Panthers, but he's still the clear top choice at the position this week as his target share dwarfs the rest of the competition at tight end.
He went 6-67 against the Rams earlier in the year and they've been known to give up some good games to opposing TEs this season. He's my favorite Cardinals skill player on this slate -- that is unless we get some value at running back if James Conner ends up being out.
Secondary Play: Hunter Henry vs. LAC (DK: $4.2K / FD: $5.5K)
Henry caught four passes last week for the second game in a row, but one big difference was that he was able to find the end zone and thus produce 13.9 DK points.
This may have been just his second touchdown catch of the season, but it’s been a career year for Hunter Henry.
With four receptions for 39 yards today, he’s up to 66 catches and 674 yards — both of which are career highs. #ProHogspic.twitter.com/KetbiywpPj
— Andrew Hutchinson (@NWAHutch) December 23, 2024
The other encouraging sign was the sheer volume of targets that Henry saw, as he was targeted nine times by quarterback Drake Maye. That was the fifth time this year he saw nine targets or more and you simply don't see tight ends getting that much attention in many offenses across the league. At his price, he could be a real steal.
Defense/Special Teams - Saturday Slate Week 17 DFS Picks
Top Play: Los Angeles Chargers D/ST at NE (DK: $3.4K / FD: $4.9K)
The Patriots offense has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing defenses, so the Chargers, despite their high cost, look to be the chalk on this slate. As much as Maye has made a lot of progress this year, he's still thrown 10 interceptions and lost five fumbles. The Chargers are likely to create some turnovers in this one and pay off their price tag.
Contrarian Play: Cincinnati Bengals vs. DEN (DK: $3.0K / FD: $4.5K)
Despite being a very bad defense statistically, this unit has been very solid for fantasy purposes over the last few weeks. The secondary has six interceptions in the last two weeks while the front seven has piled up six sacks. It is facing a rookie QB who has made plenty of mistakes this season, too, (11 INTs) and should be more lightly rostered than the Chargers.
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