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It's that time of year - the time when the NFL takes over Saturdays with late-season games and even infiltrates Christmas Day with games, too (the NBA is still salty!)
In Week 16, we have two games on Saturday, 12/21 with the Chiefs hosting the Houston Texans and the Baltimore Ravens hosting their division rival - the Pittsburgh Steelers. All four teams are likely playoff-bound and will also be playing on Christmas Day as the Steelers will host the Chiefs and the Ravens head to Houston.
In this article, you'll find my favorite picks for the NFL DFS Saturday slate on DraftKings and FanDuel. I have my top option at each position as well as a secondary option to consider. Good luck in your contests and thanks for choosing RotoBaller for your NFL DFS advice!
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Quarterbacks - Saturday Slate Week 16 DFS Picks
Top Play: Patrick Mahomes vs. HOU (DK: $6.4K / FD: $7.6K)
After there was some speculation as to whether or not Mahomes would suit up this week, he's set to start and he feels too cheap as he's $1800 less than Lamar Jackson on DraftKings. While Houston rates well against the pass and has put pressure on opposing QBs this year, they've also been pretty stout against the run and should force the Chiefs to have to throw the football.
Oh yeah, and Mahomes gets Hollywood Brown in the lineup this week, giving him yet another weapon.
𝗧𝗥𝗘𝗡𝗗𝗜𝗡𝗚: #Chiefs WR Hollywood Brown has been “unguardable” and “a headache” for the Chiefs defense so far in practice this week. He has rarely dropped any passes thrown his way and is continuously getting open. Brown seems to have reclaimed his spot as Mahomes’ favorite… pic.twitter.com/yjyLIuEQak
— Chris (@chiefs_outsider) December 19, 2024
We've only seen Mahomes crack 20+ DK points twice this year, but he provides a fantastic floor as he's been over 14 DK points in every start. This game should have a playoff-type atmosphere and while this isn't a stat-drive analysis by any means, I tend to really like Mahomes in tough matchups against good teams. As long as his ankle holds up, I think he has a good game and leads the Chiefs to yet another close win.
Contrarian Play: Russell Wilson @ BAL (DK: $5.7K / FD: $7.4K)
The Steelers offense was held in check by the Ravens in their first matchup, but Wilson is dirt cheap and will be forced to air it out as the Ravens clamped down on opposing run games. While Baltimore's secondary has improved in recent weeks, they still have some soft spots in the middle where Calvin Austin and Pat Freiermuth will go to work. Wilson doesn't need to throw for 300 yards to hit value, even 200 and a couple of scores get you there at this salary.
Running Backs - Saturday Slate Week 16 DFS Picks
Top Play: Joe Mixon @ KC (DK: $7.8K / FD: $8.6K)
Mixon is the most expensive back by quite a large margin, but for good reason. The only other bell-cow running back on this slate is Derrick Henry, who has a tougher matchup against Pittsburgh. And while Kansas City is also a pretty tough spot for Mixon, he has a major role in the passing game (unlike Henry, who can be game-scripted into a smaller overall role).
We are flipping coins when it comes to Pacheco vs. Hunt and even Najee Harris vs. Jaylen Warren, but Mixon is guaranteed to push for 20 touches and is the one back on this slate who will likely be targeted 4-5 times as a receiver, and get multiple touches inside the ten yard-line. I'd pay up for him or Nico Collins to get a big piece of the Houston offense in just about every lineup build.
Secondary Play: Jaylen Warren @ BAL (DK: $5.2K / FD: $5.3K)
Warren is a dynamic runner and receiver, yet he has disappeared from the Pittsburgh game plan in recent weeks after a productive four-game stretch with 10+ DK points.
Jaylen Warren has 16 touches in the last two games. Not a lot for a guy who you could make a case is their best playmaker on offense.
— Steelers Network (@SteelersNetwork) December 20, 2024
With George Pickens out again for the Steelers, they desperately need to get the ball to their best playmakers and Warren has shown that he can help move the chains as a receiver on screen passes and dump-offs. He had four catches against the Ravens in the first meeting and ran it effectively gaining 41 yards on 9 totes.
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Wide Receivers - Saturday Slate Week 16 DFS Picks
Top Play: Nico Collins @ KC (DK: $8.1K / FD: $9.0K)
On small slates, grabbing the top raw points producers at running back and wide receiver is imperative and the DFS sites usually soften the pricing a bit so that we can fit several of the top-priced players into our lineups.
This is the case again with Collins, as fitting him into lineups isn't as hard as you might think - and it's something I think we should do even if he's going to be chalky.
Collins had only four catches last week, but two went for touchdowns and he remains the focal point for Houston on offense. Expect him to lead the team in targets and be the guy who C.J. Stroud leans on to keep this offense moving.
Secondary Play: Zay Flowers vs. PIT (DK: $5.9K / FD: $7.2K)
Flowers caught just two of six targets against the Steelers in the teams' first meeting but scored a touchdown. While it was Rashod Bateman who stole the show last week, I would expect Flowers to lead the way for the Ravens this week against a Pittsburgh secondary that has been exposed the last two weeks by Jalen Hurts and Joe Burrow.
Zay Flowers is DUE 🗓️‼️ He hasn't finished at wr32😓 or better since week 9.
In the last 3 weeks, the Steelers allow 30ppg ‼️ to wrs.
In a must win game vs the Steelers, are you rolling 🎲👨🏿🦽♿ with Zay to get you to week 17⁉️pic.twitter.com/tgpGD37z1t
— PlayerProfiler NFL (@Profiler_NFL) December 20, 2024
Pittsburgh is a pass funnel defense, so look for Lamar Jackson and Baltimore to feed Flowers on early downs with plays designed for him to take advantage of how good he is with the football after the catch. Those plays can add up quickly, especially in PPR scoring. He's just too cheap for a WR1 that has a positive matchup and likely a positive game script.
Tight Ends - Saturday Slate Week 16 DFS Picks
Top Play: Travis Kelce vs. HOU (DK: 5.6K / FD: $6.5K)
Kelce is not having the dominant season that we have come to expect from him over the years, but he's still outproducing all the other players at his position on this slate with 12.1 DK points per game.
The addition of Hollywood Brown to this offense should be understated. With Brown, Xavier Worthy, and DeAndre Hopkins on the outside, defenses are going to have to soften up and respect the Chiefs' ability to throw the ball down the field. We know Mahomes is happy to check it down to his safety blanket Kelce, fellow tight end Noah Gray, or his running backs when his primary receivers are well-covered or he's under pressure.
If the Houston pass rush starts to get to Mahomes, expect Andy Reid to scheme Kelce the ball on some quick screens, shovel passes, and short routes. I wouldn't be surprised to see Kelce finish with 8-10 catches in this one, which will work just fine in DK PPR scoring.
Secondary Play: Pat Freiermuth @ BAL (DK: $3.9K / FD: $5.5K)
I almost put Freiermuth first at the position as I think he has a similar ceiling to Kelce with a slightly lower floor. The former Penn State Nittany Lion has scored a touchdown in three straight games and should continue to function as one of Russell Wilson's top targets with George Pickens out of the lineup.
He was held in check by Baltimore last month, but he's seen his targets increase in a big way since that game and we know Arthur Smith loves to scheme his tight ends (don't forget about the mountain of a man Darnell Washington, either).
Defense/Special Teams - Saturday Slate Week 16 DFS Picks
Top Play: Kansas City Chiefs vs. HOU (DK: $2.7K / FD: $4.0K)
Defense is tough this week, because while all four units are very respectable - they are all facing teams that simply don't turn it over very often and have been bad matchups for opposing defenses in terms of fantasy points allowed.
It's weird to like the Chiefs here after I already endorsed Mixon and Collins, but Stroud has thrown nine interceptions this year and lost four fumbles. We don't have to shy away from using a defense just because we have offensive players from the other team in our lineups - that's nearly unavoidable on such small slates.
Contrarian Play: Pittsburgh Steelers @ BAL (DK: $2.5K / FD: $4.3K)
The Steelers are as cheap as they come on DraftKings and have been a takeaway machine all season long forcing 30 turnovers - the most in the NFL. Going after a fantastic Baltimore offense will be contrarian, but the Steelers have had Lamar Jackson's number during his career and we saw him struggle against them in Baltimore's loss in Pittsburgh last month.
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